Warconomy tracks the human cost of conflict — fatalities, injuries, displacement, and infrastructure damage — as structured, source-linked records, separate from its economic-impact and demographic pages. Each figure carries the organization that verified, reported, or claimed it, an evidence tier (verified, corroborated, reported, provisional, disputed, unverified lead, or unknown), and an explicit 'no reliable data located' state when one has not been found, so that missing data is never mistaken for zero. Coverage today is limited to the conflicts where Warconomy has directly checked figures against source reporting; a conflict's absence here reflects a research gap, not a lower human cost.
- Figures are directly cited to OHCHR, UNHCR, IOM and equivalent organizations — not Warconomy's own estimates.
- Ranges and competing estimates are shown when sources disagree, rather than averaged into a single number.
- Civilian and military figures are shown separately; a missing category renders as 'not reported,' never as zero.
- Every figure carries an as-of date and a last-reviewed date; see the source for the authoritative, current number.
- Coverage is partial by design — see 'What isn't covered yet' below before drawing any comparison across conflicts.
Evidence tiers used on this page
Russia–Ukraine war — Ukraine — areas the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine (HRMMU) could access and independently verify; excludes incidents HRMMU could not verify, including much of the front line and occupied territory during active hostilities.
Covering February 24, 2022 to present (ongoing).
Medium confidence · As of · Reviewed
OHCHR/HRMMU-verified civilian deaths only (a documented floor, not a total), cumulative since 24 February 2022 through 30 June 2026. OHCHR has repeatedly stated it considers the actual civilian death toll considerably higher than what HRMMU has been able to verify, given verification lag and limited access to areas of active hostilities and Russian-occupied territory.
OHCHR/HRMMU-verified civilian injuries only (a documented floor); does not cover military injuries, which OHCHR does not track.
A subset already included within fatalitiesCivilian, not additional to it.
Fatalities — civilian vs. military
Bars use the upper-bound value for range figures. A “Not reported” row is never drawn as a zero-length bar — an unreported figure is not the same as zero.
Displacement
IOM Displacement Tracking Matrix General Population Survey rounds 22 (fieldwork through December 2025) and 23 (January-March 2026) — a survey-based estimate, not a registration count. The two rounds are separate fieldwork periods, not same-day snapshots, which is why this is shown as a range rather than a single figure.
UNHCR-recorded/registered refugees from Ukraine worldwide, aggregated across snapshots reported via UNHCR's operational data portal between December 2025 and April 2026. This is a registration-based count, not a real-time headcount, and moves between snapshots as registrations are reconciled or people return. Warconomy could not directly re-verify a single current figure against the live portal for this update (a JavaScript dashboard, not a static page) — the band above is a documented data need pending direct reconfirmation; see /data-needs.
Humanitarian impact
Not reported in the OHCHR civilian-casualty series cited here.
No Tier A source currently cited by Warconomy publishes a verifiable detained/prisoner-of-war total for this conflict.
Methodology
Fatality and injury figures are OHCHR/HRMMU-verified civilian casualties from its monthly Protection of Civilians reporting (a documented, individually-verified incident count — a floor, not a total). Displacement figures combine a UNHCR-recorded refugee band and an IOM DTM survey-based IDP estimate; both are approximate and drawn from more than one snapshot/survey round rather than a single verified point figure. Overall record confidence is 'medium' to reflect the displacement bands' approximate nature, even though the individual OHCHR fatality/injury figures carry 'confirmed' verification.
- OHCHR's verified civilian casualty figures are a documented-incident floor, not a total count; OHCHR states the real toll is considerably higher, particularly in areas of active hostilities and occupied territory.
- Military fatalities on either side are not reported here — no independently-verified public figure is currently cited by Warconomy.
- Refugee and IDP figures are approximate bands drawn from multiple 2025-2026 snapshots/survey rounds, not a single verified point-in-time count — treat as directional, not precise to the person.
- Figures cover the period since 24 February 2022 through the stated as-of date and will continue to rise while the conflict continues; this is not a final toll.
- Coverage of other conflicts under this data model (Gaza, Sudan, DRC, Sahel) remains a documented gap — see docs/marathon-backlog.md — and should not be read as those conflicts having a lower human cost.
Forecasts related to Russia–Ukraine war
These are forecasts — modeled predictions about the future, not the observed and sourced figures elsewhere on this page. Each can be wrong.
- Fore OHCHR reports at least one month in H2 2026 above the H1 2026 monthly average — very likely (roughly 80-95%), issued , resolves by .
- Fore The next Ukraine RDNA raises the ten-year reconstruction estimate above $588 billion — very likely (roughly 80-95%), issued , resolves by .
Sources for this record
| Source | Type | Link |
|---|---|---|
| OHCHR — UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine, Protection of Civilians reporting | Intergovernmental | ukraine.ohchr.org/en/reports/protection-of-civilians |
| UNHCR — Ukraine Refugee Situation Operational Data Portal | Intergovernmental | data.unhcr.org/en/situations/ukraine |
| IOM — Displacement Tracking Matrix, Ukraine Internal Displacement Report | Intergovernmental | dtm.iom.int/ukraine |
All figures (accessible table)
| Measure | Value | Verification |
|---|---|---|
| Civilian fatalities | At least 16,431 | verified |
| Military fatalities | No verifiable figure currently cited | unknown |
| Child fatalities | At least 803 | verified |
| Civilian injuries | At least 48,613 | verified |
| Missing | No reliable figure located | unknown |
| Internally displaced | 3,700,000–3,900,000 | provisional |
| Refugees (worldwide) | 5,200,000–5,900,000 | reported |
| Detained / POW | No verifiable figure currently cited | unknown |
| Facing acute food insecurity | Not covered by this record | — |
| Housing damaged/destroyed | Not covered by this record | — |
| Schools damaged/destroyed | Not covered by this record | — |
| Hospitals/clinics damaged/destroyed | Not covered by this record | — |
Israel–Gaza war — Gaza Strip
Covering October 7, 2023 to present (ongoing).
Low confidence · As of · Reviewed
Ministry of Health (Gaza)-reported cumulative injuries, 7 October 2023 through 16 July 2025 (OCHA oPt Humanitarian Situation Update #306) — same staleness caveat as fatalitiesTotal.
Fatalities — civilian vs. military
Bars use the upper-bound value for range figures. A “Not reported” row is never drawn as a zero-length bar — an unreported figure is not the same as zero.
Displacement
OCHA (10 July 2026 situation report) states 'nearly all of Gaza's current population of 2.1 million people has been displaced' at least once since October 2023 — a qualitative characterization translated here into an approximate bound (not a precise headcount) given Gaza's estimated total population. Displacement is often repeated (people displaced multiple times), so this describes population affected, not a single point-in-time count.
Methodology
Fatality/injury figures are Ministry of Health (Gaza)-reported and relayed via OCHA oPt situation reporting, which OCHA itself labels 'yet-to-be-verified by the UN.' This record could not directly confirm a whole-war cumulative figure more recent than 16 July 2025 during this research pass; OCHA's more frequent mid-2026 updates report casualties since the 10 October 2025 ceasefire specifically (a materially different, shorter period — roughly 1,050-1,110 killed and 3,400+ injured since the ceasefire alone as of early-to-mid July 2026), which is not the same figure as the whole-war cumulative above and is not added to it. Overall confidence is 'low' to reflect both the reporting-verification caveat and the confirmed staleness of the headline cumulative figure.
- The whole-war cumulative casualty figures here (58,573 killed / 139,607 injured) are dated 16 July 2025 and are understood to be stale relative to mid-2026 — this is recorded as a known staleness gap, not an invented current total.
- OCHA explicitly labels MoH-sourced casualty figures as 'yet-to-be-verified by the UN' and attributed to their source; they are not an independently-confirmed count.
- MoH figures do not consistently separate civilian from combatant deaths; this record does not attempt to infer a breakdown MoH itself does not publish.
- Military/combatant fatalities are not reported here — no independently-verified public figure is currently cited by Warconomy.
- Displacement is shown as an approximate population-affected bound, not a precise or single point-in-time headcount.
- This record covers the Gaza Strip only — see the separate West Bank record for that geography, which is not aggregated with these figures because the two describe materially different conflict dynamics and reporting chains.
Sources for this record
| Source | Type | Link |
|---|---|---|
| UN OCHA — Occupied Palestinian Territory, humanitarian situation reporting | Intergovernmental | www.ochaopt.org/ |
| Washington Institute — Assessing the Gaza Death Toll After Eighteen Months of War | Academic | www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/assessing-gaza-death-toll-after-eighteen-months-war |
All figures (accessible table)
| Measure | Value | Verification |
|---|---|---|
| Civilian fatalities | Not covered by this record | — |
| Military fatalities | No verifiable figure currently cited | unknown |
| Child fatalities | Not covered by this record | — |
| Civilian injuries | At least 139,607 | reported |
| Missing | Not covered by this record | — |
| Internally displaced | 1,900,000–2,100,000 | reported |
| Refugees (worldwide) | Not covered by this record | — |
| Detained / POW | Not covered by this record | — |
| Facing acute food insecurity | Not covered by this record | — |
| Housing damaged/destroyed | Not covered by this record | — |
| Schools damaged/destroyed | Not covered by this record | — |
| Hospitals/clinics damaged/destroyed | Not covered by this record | — |
Israel–Gaza war — West Bank, including East Jerusalem
Covering October 7, 2023 to present (ongoing).
Medium confidence · As of · Reviewed
OCHA-documented Palestinians killed by Israeli forces or settlers in the West Bank, 7 October 2023 through 4 July 2026 (OCHA oPt Humanitarian Situation Report, 3 July 2026 edition) — distinct from Gaza Strip figures above; tracked through OCHA's own protection monitoring rather than relayed from a party ministry.
A subset already included within fatalitiesCivilian, not additional to it.
Fatalities — civilian vs. military
Bars use the upper-bound value for range figures. A “Not reported” row is never drawn as a zero-length bar — an unreported figure is not the same as zero.
Displacement
Over 3,200 Palestinians displaced across the West Bank in 2026 (year-to-date at report date) by settler attacks and demolitions for lack of Israeli-issued building permits — an average of 17 people per day, double the daily rate over the preceding three years, per OCHA.
Methodology
Casualty and displacement figures for the West Bank (including East Jerusalem) are drawn from OCHA's own protection monitoring, distinct from Gaza Strip figures (which relay Ministry of Health statements). Reported separately from the Gaza Strip record because the two geographies have materially different conflict dynamics (occupation-related settler violence and demolitions vs. the Gaza war) and reporting chains.
- Figures cover the period since 7 October 2023 through the stated as-of date and will continue to change; not a final toll.
- This record covers the West Bank (including East Jerusalem) only — see the separate Gaza Strip record for that geography.
- Displacement figure is year-to-date 2026 only, not cumulative since 2023 — a different period than the fatality figures in this same record.
Sources for this record
| Source | Type | Link |
|---|---|---|
| UN OCHA — Occupied Palestinian Territory, humanitarian situation reporting | Intergovernmental | www.ochaopt.org/ |
All figures (accessible table)
| Measure | Value | Verification |
|---|---|---|
| Civilian fatalities | 1,109 | reported |
| Military fatalities | Not covered by this record | — |
| Child fatalities | 243 | reported |
| Civilian injuries | Not covered by this record | — |
| Missing | Not covered by this record | — |
| Internally displaced | At least 3,200 | reported |
| Refugees (worldwide) | Not covered by this record | — |
| Detained / POW | Not covered by this record | — |
| Facing acute food insecurity | Not covered by this record | — |
| Housing damaged/destroyed | Not covered by this record | — |
| Schools damaged/destroyed | Not covered by this record | — |
| Hospitals/clinics damaged/destroyed | Not covered by this record | — |
Sudan civil war — Sudan (nationwide); some contested areas access-constrained for direct verification
Covering April 15, 2023 to present (ongoing).
Medium confidence · As of · Reviewed
Fatalities — civilian vs. military
Bars use the upper-bound value for range figures. A “Not reported” row is never drawn as a zero-length bar — an unreported figure is not the same as zero.
Displacement
IOM DTM reported displacement 'close to nine million' as of end March 2026, down from an 11.5 million peak in January 2025 as some displaced people returned to contested or unstable areas (a return is not necessarily a durable or safe one). A tracking-based estimate, not a registration count.
UNHCR reported over 2.8 million Sudanese refugees recorded across seven neighbouring countries (Chad, Egypt, South Sudan, Libya, CAR, Ethiopia, Uganda) at the start of 2026 — nearly double the count at the crisis's start and roughly triple the pre-war figure. Egypt alone hosts an estimated 1.4 million.
Humanitarian impact
IPC classification: roughly 19.5 million people (about two in five in Sudan) in Phase 3+ (Crisis or worse), including over 5 million in Phase 4 (Emergency) and approximately 135,000 in Phase 5 (Catastrophic) across hotspots in Darfur and South Kordofan — a food-security phase classification jointly produced by FAO/WFP/UNICEF and partners, not a single agency's own figure, hence 'corroborated' rather than 'reported.'
Methodology
Displacement figures combine IOM DTM's Sudan tracking (IDPs) and UNHCR's regional refugee response reporting; food-security status is the IPC's jointly-produced technical classification. No casualty figure is reported because no source this record could verify offers a reconciled, credible total. Overall confidence is 'medium': the displacement/food-security figures are well-sourced and current, but the complete absence of verifiable casualty data is a major limitation of the record as a whole.
- No credible total death toll is reported — this is an honest gap, not an oversight; see fatalitiesTotal's coverageNote.
- Civilian-vs-military, injured, missing, and detained figures are all gaps for this conflict as of this research pass.
- Displacement figures are IOM DTM survey/tracking estimates, not a registration count, and 'returns' from a displacement peak do not necessarily indicate durable or safe conditions.
- Access constraints in active-conflict areas (parts of Darfur, Kordofan) limit direct verification of any figure for those specific areas.
- Figures span slightly different as-of dates (IDPs: end March 2026; refugees: start of 2026; food security: current at access) because each comes from a different organization's own publication cadence — not a single synchronized snapshot.
Forecasts related to Sudan civil war
These are forecasts — modeled predictions about the future, not the observed and sourced figures elsewhere on this page. Each can be wrong.
- Fore Sudan IDP count stays above 8 million in IOM DTM's next published round — very likely (roughly 80-95%), issued , resolves by .
Sources for this record
| Source | Type | Link |
|---|---|---|
| IOM — Displacement Tracking Matrix, Sudan | Intergovernmental | dtm.iom.int/sudan |
| UNHCR — Sudan Situation Regional Refugee Response | Intergovernmental | data.unhcr.org/en/situations/sudansituation |
| IPC — Integrated Food Security Phase Classification, Sudan | Intergovernmental | www.ipcinfo.org/ipc-country-analysis/details-map/en/c/1159787/ |
All figures (accessible table)
| Measure | Value | Verification |
|---|---|---|
| Civilian fatalities | Not covered by this record | — |
| Military fatalities | Not covered by this record | — |
| Child fatalities | Not covered by this record | — |
| Civilian injuries | Not covered by this record | — |
| Missing | Not covered by this record | — |
| Internally displaced | 8,500,000–9,000,000 | reported |
| Refugees (worldwide) | At least 2,800,000 | reported |
| Detained / POW | Not covered by this record | — |
| Facing acute food insecurity | 19,500,000 | corroborated |
| Housing damaged/destroyed | Not covered by this record | — |
| Schools damaged/destroyed | Not covered by this record | — |
| Hospitals/clinics damaged/destroyed | Not covered by this record | — |
What isn't covered yet
See war, population & economic scarring for demographic and labor-force context (not casualty data), and data needs for the backlog of figures pending direct source confirmation, including a live refresh of the UNHCR refugee total shown above as a range.
All sources used on this page
| Source | Type | Link |
|---|---|---|
| OHCHR — UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine, Protection of Civilians reporting | Intergovernmental | ukraine.ohchr.org/en/reports/protection-of-civilians |
| UNHCR — Ukraine Refugee Situation Operational Data Portal | Intergovernmental | data.unhcr.org/en/situations/ukraine |
| IOM — Displacement Tracking Matrix, Ukraine Internal Displacement Report | Intergovernmental | dtm.iom.int/ukraine |
| UN OCHA — Occupied Palestinian Territory, humanitarian situation reporting | Intergovernmental | www.ochaopt.org/ |
| Washington Institute — Assessing the Gaza Death Toll After Eighteen Months of War | Academic | www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/assessing-gaza-death-toll-after-eighteen-months-war |
| IOM — Displacement Tracking Matrix, Sudan | Intergovernmental | dtm.iom.int/sudan |
| UNHCR — Sudan Situation Regional Refugee Response | Intergovernmental | data.unhcr.org/en/situations/sudansituation |
| IPC — Integrated Food Security Phase Classification, Sudan | Intergovernmental | www.ipcinfo.org/ipc-country-analysis/details-map/en/c/1159787/ |
Machine-readable: /human-cost/data.json. See also the methodology hub and the data caveats guide.