{ "name": "Warconomy — human-cost coverage inventory", "asOf": "2026-06-05", "note": "A planning inventory of which conflicts Warconomy could responsibly cover under the human-cost data model and what fields are realistically available for each, not the dataset itself (see /human-cost/data.json for populated records). Field availability describes source landscape, not Warconomy's current coverage.", "summary": { "total": 10, "inDataset": 3, "notYetInDataset": 7, "fieldAvailability": { "civilianDeaths": { "available": 1, "partial": 2, "weak-only": 7, "gap": 0 }, "totalDeaths": { "available": 0, "partial": 1, "weak-only": 5, "gap": 4 }, "militaryDeaths": { "available": 0, "partial": 0, "weak-only": 2, "gap": 8 }, "injuries": { "available": 1, "partial": 1, "weak-only": 3, "gap": 5 }, "missing": { "available": 0, "partial": 0, "weak-only": 2, "gap": 8 }, "idps": { "available": 8, "partial": 1, "weak-only": 0, "gap": 1 }, "refugees": { "available": 2, "partial": 6, "weak-only": 0, "gap": 2 }, "detainees": { "available": 0, "partial": 2, "weak-only": 2, "gap": 6 }, "foodInsecurity": { "available": 6, "partial": 2, "weak-only": 0, "gap": 2 }, "damagedHospitals": { "available": 0, "partial": 1, "weak-only": 4, "gap": 5 }, "damagedSchools": { "available": 0, "partial": 1, "weak-only": 4, "gap": 5 }, "damagedHomes": { "available": 1, "partial": 1, "weak-only": 5, "gap": 3 }, "infrastructureDamage": { "available": 1, "partial": 2, "weak-only": 4, "gap": 3 } } }, "entries": [ { "id": "russia-ukraine", "displayName": "Russia–Ukraine war", "region": "Eastern Europe", "status": "active", "periodCovered": "24 Feb 2022 – present", "fields": { "civilianDeaths": "available", "totalDeaths": "gap", "militaryDeaths": "weak-only", "injuries": "available", "missing": "gap", "idps": "partial", "refugees": "partial", "detainees": "gap", "foodInsecurity": "gap", "damagedHospitals": "weak-only", "damagedSchools": "weak-only", "damagedHomes": "weak-only", "infrastructureDamage": "partial" }, "keyEconomicEffects": [ "Energy market disruption", "Black Sea grain/food prices", "Sanctions on Russian energy trade", "Multi-year reconstruction need" ], "strongestSources": [ "OHCHR/HRMMU (civilian casualties)", "UNHCR (refugees)", "IOM DTM (IDPs)" ], "weakerSupplementalSources": [ "Ukrainian General Staff claimed Russian losses", "Russian MoD claimed figures (both attributable claims only)", "Kyiv School of Economics reconstruction/damage tracking" ], "majorGaps": [ "Military fatalities on either side (no independently-verified figure)", "Total/combined deaths", "Missing persons", "Detained/POW totals", "Hospital/school damage counts" ], "disagreement": [ "IOM DTM survey rounds vs UNHCR registration-based refugee counts (different methodologies)" ], "lastReviewed": "2026-07-17", "recommendedCadence": "monthly", "inWarconomyDataset": true, "existingCoverage": [ "conflicts/russia-ukraine", "human-capital", "briefings/russia-ukraine-troop-losses-labor-force-growth", "briefings/refugees-migration-brain-drain-war-economy" ], "priorityRationale": "Already the site's flagship conflict; best-documented war economy; OHCHR/UNHCR/IOM all publish regularly." }, { "id": "israel-gaza", "displayName": "Israel–Gaza war and regional spillover", "region": "Middle East", "status": "ceasefire", "periodCovered": "7 Oct 2023 – present (ceasefire phases vary)", "fields": { "civilianDeaths": "partial", "totalDeaths": "partial", "militaryDeaths": "weak-only", "injuries": "partial", "missing": "weak-only", "idps": "available", "refugees": "gap", "detainees": "partial", "foodInsecurity": "available", "damagedHospitals": "partial", "damagedSchools": "partial", "damagedHomes": "available", "infrastructureDamage": "available" }, "keyEconomicEffects": [ "Regional energy/shipping risk premium", "Red Sea/Bab-el-Mandeb shipping disruption spillover", "Reconstruction cost estimates", "Labor market and human-capital loss" ], "strongestSources": [ "UN OCHA oPt (casualties, displacement, humanitarian access)", "WHO (health-system damage)", "UNRWA (displacement, shelter)", "World Bank/UN interim damage assessments" ], "weakerSupplementalSources": [ "Gaza Health Ministry topline figures (a party to the conflict — must be labeled as such, not independently verified)", "Israeli military statements on militant/hostage figures (a party claim)", "OSINT satellite-damage analyses" ], "majorGaps": [ "Independently-verified total/military death breakdown (most published totals are MoH-reported, not independently verified)", "Missing persons under rubble", "Detainee totals from all parties" ], "disagreement": [ "MoH-reported death tolls vs demographic/excess-mortality modeled estimates (different methodologies, both credible but not identical)", "Combatant-vs-civilian breakdown disputed by involved parties" ], "lastReviewed": "2026-07-17", "recommendedCadence": "weekly", "inWarconomyDataset": true, "existingCoverage": [ "conflicts/middle-east", "briefings/israel-gaza-regional-energy-shipping-risk", "briefings/gaza-war-labor-reconstruction-human-capital" ], "priorityRationale": "Already discussed via briefings; high humanitarian scale; UN OCHA/WHO/UNRWA provide a strong Tier A backbone despite some figures being party-reported." }, { "id": "sudan", "displayName": "Sudan civil war (SAF–RSF)", "region": "East Africa / Horn of Africa", "status": "active", "periodCovered": "15 Apr 2023 – present", "fields": { "civilianDeaths": "weak-only", "totalDeaths": "weak-only", "militaryDeaths": "gap", "injuries": "gap", "missing": "gap", "idps": "available", "refugees": "available", "detainees": "gap", "foodInsecurity": "available", "damagedHospitals": "weak-only", "damagedSchools": "gap", "damagedHomes": "weak-only", "infrastructureDamage": "weak-only" }, "keyEconomicEffects": [ "Cross-border displacement into Chad/Egypt/South Sudan", "Regional food-price effects", "Gold-trade and sanctions exposure", "Red Sea port access disruption" ], "strongestSources": [ "UNHCR (refugees)", "IOM DTM (IDPs, one of the world's largest displacement crises)", "IPC/Cadre Harmonisé (food insecurity/famine classification)" ], "weakerSupplementalSources": [ "ACLED (event-level violence tracking, a research aggregator)", "Sudan Doctors' union/local reporting on casualties", "Satellite-based famine/damage assessments" ], "majorGaps": [ "No credible independently-verified total death toll exists (widely-cited figures are rough extrapolations, not verified counts)", "Military losses on either side", "Missing/detained totals" ], "disagreement": [ "Death toll estimates range widely (tens of thousands cited by various researchers/officials with materially different methodologies) — a clear case for a wide range or 'no reliable single estimate', not a point figure" ], "lastReviewed": "2026-07-17", "recommendedCadence": "monthly", "inWarconomyDataset": true, "existingCoverage": [ "conflicts/africa", "briefings/sudan-conflict-red-sea-food-trade", "briefings/sudan-war-displacement-food-economy" ], "priorityRationale": "One of the world's largest current displacement/food-insecurity crises; already discussed via briefings; IOM/UNHCR/IPC give a workable Tier A base despite a genuine casualty-count gap." }, { "id": "syria", "displayName": "Syria (post-Assad transition and residual conflict)", "region": "Middle East", "status": "frozen", "periodCovered": "2011 – present (transition since Dec 2024)", "fields": { "civilianDeaths": "partial", "totalDeaths": "weak-only", "militaryDeaths": "gap", "injuries": "weak-only", "missing": "weak-only", "idps": "available", "refugees": "available", "detainees": "weak-only", "foodInsecurity": "available", "damagedHospitals": "weak-only", "damagedSchools": "weak-only", "damagedHomes": "partial", "infrastructureDamage": "partial" }, "keyEconomicEffects": [ "Reconstruction cost estimates", "Sanctions-relief and reintegration into regional trade", "Refugee return dynamics affecting host economies (Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan)" ], "strongestSources": [ "UNHCR (refugees, one of the largest refugee populations globally)", "IOM DTM/UN OCHA (IDPs)", "World Bank (economic/reconstruction estimates)" ], "weakerSupplementalSources": [ "Syrian Network for Human Rights / Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (long-running, credible but non-official cumulative tallies)", "Local/transitional-government statements" ], "majorGaps": [ "Cumulative total deaths across 13+ years lack a single authoritative reconciled figure", "Detainee/missing totals from the former government's detention system remain largely unquantified" ], "disagreement": [ "SNHR and SOHR cumulative tallies differ by methodology and are both Tier C/B, not independently reconciled" ], "lastReviewed": null, "recommendedCadence": "quarterly", "inWarconomyDataset": false, "existingCoverage": [ "briefings/syria-war-migration-lost-growth" ], "priorityRationale": "Large-scale, long-running refugee/reconstruction story now newly economically relevant post-transition; UNHCR/World Bank give a workable base." }, { "id": "yemen", "displayName": "Yemen civil war and Houthi Red Sea attacks", "region": "Middle East / Red Sea", "status": "frozen", "periodCovered": "2014 – present (Red Sea attacks since Nov 2023)", "fields": { "civilianDeaths": "weak-only", "totalDeaths": "weak-only", "militaryDeaths": "gap", "injuries": "weak-only", "missing": "gap", "idps": "available", "refugees": "partial", "detainees": "weak-only", "foodInsecurity": "available", "damagedHospitals": "weak-only", "damagedSchools": "weak-only", "damagedHomes": "weak-only", "infrastructureDamage": "weak-only" }, "keyEconomicEffects": [ "Red Sea shipping/insurance disruption (already a Warconomy chokepoint topic)", "Regional food insecurity", "Fuel/import disruption" ], "strongestSources": [ "UN OCHA/IOM (displacement, humanitarian needs)", "IPC (food insecurity)", "UNHCR" ], "weakerSupplementalSources": [ "ACLED (event tracking)", "Houthi/Yemeni government statements (party claims)" ], "majorGaps": [ "No updated independently-verified death toll since roughly 2021 (the widely-cited ~377,000 UNDP figure is a modeled excess-death estimate, not a direct casualty count, and is now several years stale)" ], "disagreement": [ "Modeled excess-mortality estimates vs direct casualty counts measure different things and should not be presented as the same kind of figure" ], "lastReviewed": null, "recommendedCadence": "quarterly", "inWarconomyDataset": false, "existingCoverage": [ "chokepoints/red-sea-shipping", "briefings/red-sea-shipping-costs-and-commodity-prices" ], "priorityRationale": "Directly connects to Warconomy's existing Red Sea chokepoint coverage; humanitarian scale is severe but casualty data is notably stale — a good test case for honestly flagging a stale/gap state rather than reusing an old modeled figure as current." }, { "id": "myanmar", "displayName": "Myanmar civil conflict (post-2021 coup)", "region": "Southeast Asia", "status": "active", "periodCovered": "1 Feb 2021 – present", "fields": { "civilianDeaths": "weak-only", "totalDeaths": "weak-only", "militaryDeaths": "gap", "injuries": "gap", "missing": "gap", "idps": "available", "refugees": "partial", "detainees": "partial", "foodInsecurity": "partial", "damagedHospitals": "gap", "damagedSchools": "gap", "damagedHomes": "weak-only", "infrastructureDamage": "weak-only" }, "keyEconomicEffects": [ "Labor migration to Thailand", "Regional trade/border-economy disruption", "Sanctions on military-linked entities" ], "strongestSources": [ "UNHCR/UN OCHA (displacement)", "AAPP Myanmar (detainee tracking, a specialist local monitoring group)" ], "weakerSupplementalSources": [ "ACLED", "Local/resistance media (fragmented, hard to independently verify at national scale)" ], "majorGaps": [ "No comprehensive national casualty count exists from any source; coverage is fragmented by region/conflict actor" ], "disagreement": [], "lastReviewed": null, "recommendedCadence": "quarterly", "inWarconomyDataset": false, "existingCoverage": [], "priorityRationale": "Not currently discussed on Warconomy at all; humanitarian scale is large but source coverage is comparatively thin and fragmented — lower priority than conflicts already represented on the site." }, { "id": "drc-eastern", "displayName": "Eastern DRC conflict (M23 and related armed groups)", "region": "Central Africa / Great Lakes", "status": "active", "periodCovered": "Renewed escalation from late 2021 – present", "fields": { "civilianDeaths": "weak-only", "totalDeaths": "gap", "militaryDeaths": "gap", "injuries": "gap", "missing": "gap", "idps": "available", "refugees": "partial", "detainees": "gap", "foodInsecurity": "partial", "damagedHospitals": "gap", "damagedSchools": "gap", "damagedHomes": "weak-only", "infrastructureDamage": "weak-only" }, "keyEconomicEffects": [ "Cobalt/copper/coltan supply-chain exposure (already a Warconomy briefing topic)", "Regional displacement into Rwanda/Uganda", "Sanctions/due-diligence pressure on mineral supply chains" ], "strongestSources": [ "UNHCR/IOM (displacement)", "UN Group of Experts on the DRC (mineral-trade/armed-group reporting)" ], "weakerSupplementalSources": [ "Kivu Security Tracker (specialist local incident monitoring)", "Congolese and Rwandan government statements (party claims)" ], "majorGaps": [ "No current independently-verified casualty count; most cited figures are old (some trace to the 2000s Mortality Surveys, now badly stale) or incident-level only" ], "disagreement": [ "DRC and Rwandan government narratives on M23 support directly conflict — any relationship diagram must label allegation vs confirmed vs denied" ], "lastReviewed": null, "recommendedCadence": "quarterly", "inWarconomyDataset": false, "existingCoverage": [ "conflicts/africa", "minerals", "briefings/drc-conflict-cobalt-copper-trade", "briefings/drc-conflict-mining-labor-displacement" ], "priorityRationale": "Directly connects to Warconomy's existing critical-minerals coverage; already discussed via briefings; displacement data is workable even though casualty data is thin." }, { "id": "sahel", "displayName": "Sahel conflicts (Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger)", "region": "West Africa / Sahel", "status": "active", "periodCovered": "Ongoing since ~2012, escalated since 2020s coups", "fields": { "civilianDeaths": "weak-only", "totalDeaths": "gap", "militaryDeaths": "gap", "injuries": "gap", "missing": "gap", "idps": "available", "refugees": "partial", "detainees": "gap", "foodInsecurity": "available", "damagedHospitals": "gap", "damagedSchools": "weak-only", "damagedHomes": "gap", "infrastructureDamage": "gap" }, "keyEconomicEffects": [ "Gold/uranium trade exposure (already a Warconomy briefing topic)", "Regional food insecurity", "Youth labor migration" ], "strongestSources": [ "UNHCR/IOM (displacement)", "IPC/Cadre Harmonisé (food insecurity)" ], "weakerSupplementalSources": [ "ACLED (event-level tracking across multiple armed groups)", "Local reporting, often access-constrained" ], "majorGaps": [ "Casualty data is the weakest dimension of this entry — access constraints across Mali/Burkina Faso/Niger limit most direct verification" ], "disagreement": [], "lastReviewed": null, "recommendedCadence": "quarterly", "inWarconomyDataset": false, "existingCoverage": [ "conflicts/africa", "briefings/sahel-conflict-uranium-gold-trade", "briefings/sahel-conflict-youth-labor-migration" ], "priorityRationale": "Already discussed via briefings; food-insecurity and displacement data are workable; casualty data is a genuine, honestly-flagged gap rather than a research shortfall to hide." }, { "id": "somalia", "displayName": "Somalia conflict (al-Shabaab insurgency)", "region": "Horn of Africa", "status": "active", "periodCovered": "Ongoing since 2006", "fields": { "civilianDeaths": "weak-only", "totalDeaths": "gap", "militaryDeaths": "gap", "injuries": "gap", "missing": "gap", "idps": "available", "refugees": "partial", "detainees": "gap", "foodInsecurity": "available", "damagedHospitals": "gap", "damagedSchools": "gap", "damagedHomes": "gap", "infrastructureDamage": "gap" }, "keyEconomicEffects": [ "Regional food insecurity/drought interaction", "Horn of Africa displacement dynamics", "Red Sea/Gulf of Aden piracy-adjacent shipping risk" ], "strongestSources": [ "UNHCR/IOM (displacement)", "FEWS NET/IPC (food insecurity)" ], "weakerSupplementalSources": [ "ACLED" ], "majorGaps": [ "No comprehensive casualty count exists from any source" ], "disagreement": [], "lastReviewed": null, "recommendedCadence": "quarterly", "inWarconomyDataset": false, "existingCoverage": [], "priorityRationale": "Not currently discussed on Warconomy; humanitarian scale is significant but casualty/economic-linkage data is thinner than the conflicts above — lower near-term priority." }, { "id": "red-sea-houthi-attacks", "displayName": "Red Sea shipping attacks (Houthi campaign)", "region": "Red Sea / Bab-el-Mandeb", "status": "active", "periodCovered": "Nov 2023 – present", "fields": { "civilianDeaths": "weak-only", "totalDeaths": "weak-only", "militaryDeaths": "gap", "injuries": "weak-only", "missing": "gap", "idps": "gap", "refugees": "gap", "detainees": "gap", "foodInsecurity": "gap", "damagedHospitals": "gap", "damagedSchools": "gap", "damagedHomes": "gap", "infrastructureDamage": "gap" }, "keyEconomicEffects": [ "Suez Canal transit decline / Cape of Good Hope rerouting (already a Warconomy chokepoint topic)", "War-risk insurance premiums", "Freight-rate effects on Asia-Europe trade" ], "strongestSources": [ "UKMTO/JMIC incident reporting (maritime security bodies)", "IMF PortWatch (transit-volume data, already a Warconomy source)", "Reuters/major maritime publications" ], "weakerSupplementalSources": [ "Shipping-industry social accounts and OSINT vessel-tracking commentary" ], "majorGaps": [ "Crew/seafarer casualty totals across the full campaign are not centrally tallied by any single source Warconomy has identified" ], "disagreement": [], "lastReviewed": null, "recommendedCadence": "monthly", "inWarconomyDataset": false, "existingCoverage": [ "chokepoints/red-sea-shipping", "briefings/red-sea-shipping-costs-and-commodity-prices", "briefings/war-risk-insurance-shipping-costs" ], "priorityRationale": "This is primarily a shipping/trade human-cost story (seafarer casualties, not a territorial conflict's civilian toll) — best modeled as a distinct, narrower entry alongside the existing chokepoint economic coverage rather than folded into Yemen's civil-war entry." } ] }