The Scenario Lab turns the ideas behind Warconomy's briefings into things you can try. Each calculator takes a real, source-linked baseline — today's Brent crude price, the FAO food index, a labour-force share — and applies one transparent step of arithmetic to a change you choose. The aim is understanding, not prediction: it shows how a shock could mechanically flow through, while being explicit about everything it leaves out. Nothing here is a forecast, and no value is invented.
- Oil price shock → the crude-cost portion of a gallon of fuel.
- World food-price move → an illustrative household food bill, with an adjustable pass-through.
- Labour-force loss → output, via simple growth accounting.
- Defense burden → spending as a share of GDP, against a 2% reference.
Oil price shock → cost of crude in a gallon of fuel
Scenario · not a forecastStart from Brent crude at $74/bbl (2024-12). Move the price and see the mechanical change in the crude-cost portion of a gallon of fuel.
Δ¢/gallon = (Δ$/bbl ÷ 42 gal) × 100. This is the crude component only — pump prices also include refining, distribution, taxes and margins, which vary by country and are not a prediction of what you pay.
Baseline: World Bank World Bank Commodity Price Data (the Pink Sheet), 2024-12. U.S. Energy Information Administration (units).
World food-price move → household food bill
Scenario · not a forecastWorld food commodity prices (FAO index 130.8, 2026-05) only partly, and slowly, reach the supermarket. Set a price move and how much passes through to retail.
Retail effect = world price change × pass-through. Pass-through is partial and gradual; the default (20%) is an adjustable illustration, not a measured constant.
Baseline: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) FAO Food Price Index, 2026-05. General economic literature on food-price pass-through (illustrative).
Labour-force loss → output
Scenario · not a forecastWar can shrink the working-age population through death, injury and emigration. In simple growth accounting, a smaller labour force mechanically lowers output.
Output change ≈ labour share (0.62) × labour-force change. "All else equal" is a strong assumption: real economies adjust through capital, productivity and participation. This is a teaching figure, not a forecast.
Standard growth-accounting (Cobb–Douglas) convention; illustrative.
Defense burden → spending as a share of GDP
Scenario · not a forecastSet an economy's size and how much of GDP it devotes to defense, and compare it with a 2% reference share (the NATO guideline).
Defense $ = (share of GDP) × GDP. Whether higher defense spending "crowds out" other spending depends on how it is financed (taxes, borrowing, growth) — this shows the size, not the trade-off, and is not a prediction.
Reference share: NATO 2%-of-GDP guideline. GDP size is user-set, illustrative.
What these tools deliberately leave out
- Second-round effects: real shocks move many things at once (wages, demand, policy, exchange rates); each tool isolates a single mechanical step.
- Pass-through is uncertain: how much of a commodity move reaches consumers varies by country, product and time — defaults are adjustable illustrations, not measured constants.
- No timing: the tools say nothing about when or whether a change occurs.
- Not a forecast or advice: outputs are scenarios for learning, never predictions, investment, trading or policy guidance.
Baselines & sources
- Brent crude: 73.83 $/bbl (2024-12) — World Bank World Bank Commodity Price Data (the Pink Sheet), accessed June 25, 2026.
- FAO Food Price Index: 130.8 (2026-05, basis 2014-2016 = 100) — Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) FAO Food Price Index, accessed June 10, 2026.
- Labour share of output: 0.62 — Standard growth-accounting (Cobb–Douglas) convention; illustrative.
- Machine-readable: /scenario-lab/data.json.