Different shocks travel through the economy in different ways. This view lets you choose two or three scenarios and compare them directly — which commodities and regions each one exposes, what it could mean for households, businesses and government, and how well-grounded each is (source-strength labels). It is a side-by-side reading aid for the educational scenarios, never a forecast, a ranking, or investment advice.
- Compare exposed sectors, commodities and regions at a glance.
- See the household / business / government effects in parallel.
- Source-strength labels show how grounded each scenario is.
- Open any column in the full Global Shock Simulator.
A qualitative, side-by-side comparison of educational scenarios — not a ranking, a score, or a forecast. Each column reuses the same source-labelled data as the Global Shock Simulator.
chokepoint
Strait of Hormuz disruption
Citation-only source- Primary pressure
- fuel
- Exposed commodities
- Crude oil, LNG / natural gas, Petrochemicals, Fertilizer feedstock
- Regions exposed
- Middle East, Asia, Europe, Developing economies
- Direct-exposure sectors
- Oil & gas, Shipping & insurance
- Households
- Fuel, heating and electricity, plus the cost of anything that has to be delivered, could feel pressure — most in import-dependent economies.
- Businesses
- Airlines, logistics, petrochemical and fertilizer producers are most exposed; energy-intensive manufacturers feel input-cost pressure.
- Government
- Import-dependent states can face fuel-subsidy and inflation pressure; energy exporters may see a revenue swing.
- What it does not prove
- A scenario about economic channels and durations, not a prediction that Hormuz will be disrupted. Actual effects depend on duration, spare capacity, reserves, rerouting, contracts, insurance and policy response.
chokepoint
Red Sea / Suez diversion
Citation-only source- Primary pressure
- shipping
- Exposed commodities
- Containerised goods, Crude oil & products, LNG, Grain & food
- Regions exposed
- Europe, Asia, Middle East, Global
- Direct-exposure sectors
- Container shipping, Insurance
- Households
- Imported goods could see slower delivery and gradual cost pressure; the effect is diffuse and lagged, not a sudden jump.
- Businesses
- Importers, retailers and just-in-time manufacturers face longer lead times and higher freight; some gain pricing power.
- Government
- Trade-exposed economies (especially in Europe) watch inflation and supply-chain resilience.
- What it does not prove
- A scenario about rerouting and its costs, not a forecast. Actual effects depend on duration, spare capacity, contracts, inventories and how quickly schedules adjust.