Warconomy
Interactive · educational · scenario

Global Shock Simulator

An interactive, educational scenario tool for major war-economy shocks — chokepoint disruptions, a Taiwan contingency, a rare-earth export restriction, sanctions and more. Adjust duration, severity and rerouting to explore how pressure could flow to households, businesses and government. Assumption-based scenarios, clearly source-labelled — not forecasts, not predictions, not live data.

These are scenarios — not forecasts or predictionsPick a shock and move the sliders to explore how pressure could travel through the economy. Every output is an illustrative composite of your own assumptions and the qualitative pathways shown — not a price, a percentage, a probability, or a forecast, and not live market data. The Taiwan scenarios are hypothetical economic-channel explorations and make no military prediction. Nothing here asserts a current number.

The Global Shock Simulator turns Warconomy's briefings and chokepoint pages into something you can explore. Choose a conflict-economy shock — a Strait of Hormuz disruption, a Red Sea diversion, a Taiwan contingency, a rare-earth export restriction, a sanctions escalation and more — then set assumptions for how long, how severe and how widespread it is, and how much rerouting, spare capacity, inventories and policy could cushion it. The tool shows the economic pathways, an impact matrix with source-strength badges, and a single 'pressure' gauge built only from your assumptions. It predicts nothing and invents no prices.

  • Source strength is labelled on every element: official data, historical pattern, current watch item, user assumption, citation-only, or unavailable.
  • The pressure gauge is a composite of your own assumptions — not a price, a forecast, or a probability.
  • Taiwan scenarios are hypothetical and economic-only; rare earths are kept distinct from lithium, cobalt and copper.
  • Machine-readable at /scenario-lab/global-shock/data.json.

Strait of Hormuz disruption

The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow sea passage that a large share of the world's seaborne oil and much of its LNG must pass through. This scenario explores how a disruption — of a length you choose — could add pressure across energy and far beyond it. It makes no claim that any disruption is happening now; it asks what could follow IF a disruption lasted a given time.

Scenario · not a forecast

Baseline: Chokepoint context (the routes and what depends on them) is source-linked on the Hormuz page and EIA oil-transit summaries. No current transit count or price is asserted here. Citation-only source

Illustrative pressure on fuelLow pressure

A composite of your own assumptions (severity, share and duration, eased by rerouting, spare capacity, inventories and policy) — not a price, a percentage change, a probability, or a forecast. Higher means your inputs describe a bigger, longer, less-buffered shock.

How the pressure could travel

  1. Transit disruption
  2. Energy supply risk
  3. Freight & insurance
  4. Downstream costs
  5. Households & budgets
  • Transit disruption: Tankers reroute, slow, or wait; war-risk insurance premiums can rise.
  • Energy supply risk: Crude and LNG availability tightens for import-dependent buyers.
  • Freight & insurance: Higher shipping and insurance costs spread to other cargoes.
  • Downstream costs: Petrochemicals, fertilizer feedstock, power and fuel feel input pressure.
  • Households & budgets: Fuel, electricity and subsidy/inflation pressure in exposed economies.

Impact matrix

SectorExposureSource strengthNote
Oil & gasDirectCitation-only sourceCrude and LNG transit risk is the first-order channel.
Shipping & insuranceDirectCurrent watch itemRerouting and war-risk premiums raise freight costs.
Petrochemicals & fertilizerSecond-orderHistorical patternGas-linked inputs feed plastics and fertilizer.
Power & manufacturingSecond-orderHistorical patternEnergy-intensive output feels cost pressure.
Government budgetsSecond-orderHistorical patternFuel subsidies and inflation strain public finances.

Commodities:Crude oilLNG / natural gasPetrochemicalsFertilizer feedstock

Regions exposed:Middle EastAsiaEuropeDeveloping economies

Households Fuel, heating and electricity, plus the cost of anything that has to be delivered, could feel pressure — most in import-dependent economies.

Businesses Airlines, logistics, petrochemical and fertilizer producers are most exposed; energy-intensive manufacturers feel input-cost pressure.

Government Import-dependent states can face fuel-subsidy and inflation pressure; energy exporters may see a revenue swing.

What this does not prove: A scenario about economic channels and durations, not a prediction that Hormuz will be disrupted. Actual effects depend on duration, spare capacity, reserves, rerouting, contracts, insurance and policy response.

Want to see two shocks next to each other? Compare scenarios side by side →

How to read the source-strength badges

  • Official data — a source-backed value Warconomy carries (e.g. a World Bank or FAO price).
  • Historical pattern — a documented historical pattern or analogy, not a current measurement.
  • Current watch item — a curated current-signals watch item — what to watch, with no current number asserted.
  • User assumption — a value you set on a slider; it is your assumption, not a measurement.
  • Citation-only source — an authoritative external source is named, but no value is held here.
  • No source-backed value — no safe source-backed value exists; the pathway is qualitative only.

What this tool deliberately does not do

  • It does not forecast prices, volumes, probabilities, or whether any event will occur.
  • It makes no military assessment; the Taiwan scenarios explore economic channels only.
  • It asserts no current shipping, freight, oil, casualty or displacement number.
  • It is not investment, trading, legal or policy advice.

Machine-readable export: /scenario-lab/global-shock/data.json.

Explore next

Try itOil → your gas pumpCompare the crude cost in a gallon with the pump price you pay.→NowCurrent signalsThe source-reviewed watchlist behind these scenarios.→MapConflict mapA visual way into the regions these shocks touch.→EverydayHow war reaches everyday lifeThe plain-English pathways to fuel, food and bills.→