Source packets · Warconomy

These are the exact packages to hand back when you have a source value. Each template lists the official source, the fields to fill (value, unit, period, where you found it, caveat, confidence), and a ready-to-paste message. Filling one and pasting it lets Claude promote the value through the normal, audited path — no guessing, no fabrication. 8 templates, one per source-gated task.

One template per source-gated value, matched to its official source.
No numeric value is stored — you supply it; the template gives the shape.
Pairs with the operator workbench and the promotion log.

Back to the operator workbench · machine-readable: /operator/source-packets/data.json.

CREA May 2026 Russian fossil-fuel export revenue

Publisher: CREA — Monthly analysis of Russian fossil fuel exports and sanctions
Official URL: https://energyandcleanair.org/april-2026-monthly-analysis-of-russian-fossil-fuel-exports-and-sanctions/
Expected unit: EUR million/day
Period / as-of: Monthly — reporting month May 2026
Where found: CREA monthly-analysis page for May 2026 — the headline 'EUR X mn per day' line stated in the article text (not a chart).
Caveat: Source-reported value, market/analysis estimate — not a causal attribution. No value until the page is live.
Confidence: Medium — research estimate (CREA), monthly, human-transcribable headline.

Fields to fill in: official source URL · publisher · value (the figure you read) · unit · period / as-of date · where found (page / table / sheet / paragraph) · any caveat the source states · confidence note

Paste-ready message:

Claude: CREA May 2026 is live. Headline = EUR <X> mn/day, <+/-Y>% m/m, reporting month May 2026, from <url>. Please promote obs-sanctions-export-revenue via /methodology/promote-data-need (source crea-russia-fossil-tracker).

EU 21st sanctions package — shadow-fleet vessel count

Publisher: European Commission / Council of the EU sanctions-package press release
Official URL: https://finance.ec.europa.eu/news/eu-adopts-20th-package-sanctions-against-russia-2026-04-23_en
Expected unit: Vessels (cumulative count)
Period / as-of: As of the next package's adoption date
Where found: EU sanctions-package press release — the 'a total of N vessels … now listed' sentence in the release text.
Caveat: Cumulative enforcement indicator, not a measure of vessels actually halted. No value until the package exists.
Confidence: High — official EU press release stating the cumulative total verbatim.

Paste-ready message:

Claude: EU <Nth> package adopted <date>. Cumulative listed vessels = <N> (+<a>/-<b>), from <url>. Please update obs-shadow-eu-vessels and add the eu-council source.

FAO Food Price Index — next release after May 2026

Publisher: FAO Food Price Index (monthly HTML release)
Official URL: https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/
Expected unit: Index (2014–2016 = 100)
Period / as-of: Monthly — next release after May 2026
Where found: FAO Food Price Index page — the FFPI headline and the sub-index table, both stated in text.
Caveat: Index level associated with food-price conditions; associative, not causal. No value until released.
Confidence: High — official FAO index, stated on the page with an explicit basis.

Paste-ready message:

Claude: FAO <month> is out. FFPI = <X>; cereal <a>, veg oil <b>, dairy <c>, meat <d>, sugar <e>; basis 2014–2016=100; from fao.org. Please update the FFPI + sub-index observations.

Longer SIPRI / NATO defense-spending series

Publisher: SIPRI Military Expenditure Database / NATO defence-expenditure releases
Official URL: https://www.sipri.org/publications/2026/sipri-fact-sheets/trends-world-military-expenditure-2025
Expected unit: USD billion (state current vs constant USD basis)
Period / as-of: Annual
Where found: SIPRI fact-sheet PDF tables (prior years / extra countries). The latest press-release subset was already applied (v1.187.0); the rest is PDF-only.
Caveat: Only combine same-basis, same-source-family values into one metric. Do not infer figures from charts.
Confidence: High — official SIPRI/NATO figures; match the basis (current vs constant USD).

Paste-ready message:

Claude: SIPRI fact-sheet <year>, table <t>. <Country> <year> = <X> USD bn (<current|constant> USD). Please add as country-military-expenditure observations (same-basis).

Suez / Red Sea official transit metric

Publisher: Suez Canal Authority navigation reports / UNCTAD maritime publications
Official URL: https://unctad.org/topic/transport-and-trade-logistics/review-of-maritime-transport
Expected unit: Transits (count) · net tonnage (million tonnes) · or revenue (USD)
Period / as-of: Monthly or annual
Where found: SCA navigation-report PDF table, or a UNCTAD publication that states a figure in text. UNCTAD's review page returns HTTP 403; SCA publishes PDF reports.
Caveat: Do not conflate transits, tonnage, and revenue — pick one per observation. Keep the existing dated Feb-2024 values labeled.
Confidence: Medium — official SCA/UNCTAD figure; one metric kind per observation.

Paste-ready message:

Claude: SCA report <title>, page <p>. Suez <transits|tonnage|revenue> = <X> <unit> for <period>. Please update obs-redsea-suez (one metric kind).

World Bank Pink Sheet — wheat / fertilizer / gas

Publisher: World Bank 'Pink Sheet' (Commodity Markets monthly data)
Official URL: https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets
Expected unit: USD/mt (wheat, fertilizer) · USD/mmbtu (gas)
Period / as-of: Monthly
Where found: Pink Sheet monthly XLSX/PDF — the specific sheet name, row, and cell for each commodity. The HTML page shows only index % changes, not levels.
Caveat: Nominal commodity benchmark, not a conflict-causal figure. Unit/basis must be explicit. No binary parsing.
Confidence: Medium — official World Bank benchmark; nominal price, not causal.

Paste-ready message:

Claude: Pink Sheet <month>. Wheat = <X> USD/mt (sheet '<s>', cell <c>); fertilizer = <Y> USD/mt; gas = <Z> USD/mmbtu. Please add these as commodity benchmark observations.

Black Sea grain export volumes

Publisher: UN / FAO / WTO or Ukraine official corridor statistics
Official URL: https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/en/
Expected unit: Million tonnes / month
Period / as-of: Monthly
Where found: unknown — source workflow needed. The UN Black Sea Grain Initiative ended in 2023; current corridor tonnage is in dashboards/PDFs, not a directly-stated accessible HTML figure.
Caveat: Must be an official/intergovernmental figure, not a news-derived estimate. Associative, not causal.
Confidence: Medium — must be an official/intergovernmental monthly tonnage, not news-derived.

Paste-ready message:

Claude: <UN/FAO/Ukraine source> <url> reports <X> million tonnes of corridor grain exports for <month>. Please promote obs-ukr-grain from sample to live.

OFAC cumulative shadow-fleet vessel count

Publisher: OFAC SDN list / official Treasury action press releases
Official URL: https://ofac.treasury.gov/sanctions-programs-and-country-information
Expected unit: Vessels (cumulative count)
Period / as-of: As of the access / action date
Where found: unknown — source workflow needed. OFAC states per-action designations, not a cumulative total; the SDN list is a large binary file.
Caveat: No scraping of the binary list. A derived count must be reproducible and recorded, or it is not promotable.
Confidence: Low — no official cumulative total; needs an official statement or a documented manual rule.

Paste-ready message:

Claude: Treasury release <url> states <N> shadow-fleet vessels cumulatively designated as of <date>. (Or: here is my documented manual count + rule.) Please assess whether this is promotable.

Evaluation packets (source assessment, not a value)

For future live/delayed sources, these hand back an assessment of a provider — terms, cost, reuse rights — never a number. They do not promote a value; they record whether a source could ever be used. See live-data architecture and maritime data evaluation.

AIS / maritime data provider evaluation

Assess a specific AIS/maritime provider against the criteria before any delayed maritime layer could be considered. No vessel positions, no numbers — a terms/coverage/cost assessment only.

Fields to assess: provider / source name · official documentation URL · coverage (regions / indicators) · live vs delayed (and the delay) · API or downloadable dataset? (or interactive map only) · free tier limits / where paid usage begins · commercial reuse & redistribution rights · required attribution · caching / storage policy · rate limits · historical access · data-quality / spoofing handling · cost risk · recommendation (links-only / declined / evaluate further)

Caveat: Not live tracking. Do not embed, scrape, or republish AIS data. Links-only is the default unless ingestion is justified and approved.

Paste-ready message:

Claude: maritime provider evaluation. Provider <name>, docs <url>. Coverage <Hormuz/Red Sea?>, latency <live|delayed Xh>, access <API|dataset|map-only>, free tier <...>, reuse <allowed?>, attribution <...>, caching <...>, rate limits <...>, history <...>, spoofing handling <...>, cost <...>. My recommendation: <links-only|declined|evaluate further>. Please record this against the maritime-monitoring future item — do not ingest anything.

See: Maritime data evaluation · Live-data architecture

Future live/delayed data API evaluation

Assess any non-maritime feed (market/freight/oil benchmark, transit indicator) against the same criteria before a delayed/static value could ship. A source assessment, never a value.

Caveat: No paid APIs, no scraping, no binary (PDF/XLSX) parsing. Only an accessible, reusable official source that states a dated value can proceed to a normal value packet.

Paste-ready message:

Claude: data source evaluation. Source <name>, docs <url>, indicator <what>. Access <API|dataset|HTML|PDF|XLSX|paywall>, latency <...>, free tier <...>, reuse <allowed?>, attribution <...>, caching <...>, rate limits <...>, history <...>, cost <...>. My recommendation: <links-only|declined|evaluate further>. Please record against the market-data-indicators future item — no scraping, no paid APIs, no binary parsing.

See: Live-data architecture · Operator workbench