{ "name": "Warconomy source packets", "asOf": "2026-06-05", "note": "Fill-in templates for handing a source value back so it can be promoted. No numeric value is stored here — each packet is a form plus a paste-ready message. Static, no automation.", "page": "https://warconomy.com/operator/source-packets", "count": 8, "packets": [ { "id": "crea-may-2026", "title": "CREA May 2026 Russian fossil-fuel export revenue", "publisher": "CREA — Monthly analysis of Russian fossil fuel exports and sanctions", "url": "https://energyandcleanair.org/april-2026-monthly-analysis-of-russian-fossil-fuel-exports-and-sanctions/", "expectedUnit": "EUR million/day", "expectedPeriod": "Monthly — reporting month May 2026", "whereFound": "CREA monthly-analysis page for May 2026 — the headline 'EUR X mn per day' line stated in the article text (not a chart).", "caveat": "Source-reported value, market/analysis estimate — not a causal attribution. No value until the page is live.", "confidenceNote": "Medium — research estimate (CREA), monthly, human-transcribable headline.", "fields": [ "official source URL", "publisher", "value (the figure you read)", "unit", "period / as-of date", "where found (page / table / sheet / paragraph)", "any caveat the source states", "confidence note" ], "pasteMessage": "Claude: CREA May 2026 is live. Headline = EUR mn/day, <+/-Y>% m/m, reporting month May 2026, from . Please promote obs-sanctions-export-revenue via /methodology/promote-data-need (source crea-russia-fossil-tracker)." }, { "id": "eu-21st-package", "title": "EU 21st sanctions package — shadow-fleet vessel count", "publisher": "European Commission / Council of the EU sanctions-package press release", "url": "https://finance.ec.europa.eu/news/eu-adopts-20th-package-sanctions-against-russia-2026-04-23_en", "expectedUnit": "Vessels (cumulative count)", "expectedPeriod": "As of the next package's adoption date", "whereFound": "EU sanctions-package press release — the 'a total of N vessels … now listed' sentence in the release text.", "caveat": "Cumulative enforcement indicator, not a measure of vessels actually halted. No value until the package exists.", "confidenceNote": "High — official EU press release stating the cumulative total verbatim.", "fields": [ "official source URL", "publisher", "value (the figure you read)", "unit", "period / as-of date", "where found (page / table / sheet / paragraph)", "any caveat the source states", "confidence note" ], "pasteMessage": "Claude: EU package adopted . Cumulative listed vessels = (+/-), from . Please update obs-shadow-eu-vessels and add the eu-council source." }, { "id": "fao-next", "title": "FAO Food Price Index — next release after May 2026", "publisher": "FAO Food Price Index (monthly HTML release)", "url": "https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/", "expectedUnit": "Index (2014–2016 = 100)", "expectedPeriod": "Monthly — next release after May 2026", "whereFound": "FAO Food Price Index page — the FFPI headline and the sub-index table, both stated in text.", "caveat": "Index level associated with food-price conditions; associative, not causal. No value until released.", "confidenceNote": "High — official FAO index, stated on the page with an explicit basis.", "fields": [ "official source URL", "publisher", "value (the figure you read)", "unit", "period / as-of date", "where found (page / table / sheet / paragraph)", "any caveat the source states", "confidence note" ], "pasteMessage": "Claude: FAO is out. FFPI = ; cereal , veg oil , dairy , meat , sugar ; basis 2014–2016=100; from fao.org. Please update the FFPI + sub-index observations." }, { "id": "sipri-nato-series", "title": "Longer SIPRI / NATO defense-spending series", "publisher": "SIPRI Military Expenditure Database / NATO defence-expenditure releases", "url": "https://www.sipri.org/publications/2026/sipri-fact-sheets/trends-world-military-expenditure-2025", "expectedUnit": "USD billion (state current vs constant USD basis)", "expectedPeriod": "Annual", "whereFound": "SIPRI fact-sheet PDF tables (prior years / extra countries). The latest press-release subset was already applied (v1.187.0); the rest is PDF-only.", "caveat": "Only combine same-basis, same-source-family values into one metric. Do not infer figures from charts.", "confidenceNote": "High — official SIPRI/NATO figures; match the basis (current vs constant USD).", "fields": [ "official source URL", "publisher", "value (the figure you read)", "unit", "period / as-of date", "where found (page / table / sheet / paragraph)", "any caveat the source states", "confidence note" ], "pasteMessage": "Claude: SIPRI fact-sheet , table . = USD bn ( USD). Please add as country-military-expenditure observations (same-basis)." }, { "id": "suez-transit", "title": "Suez / Red Sea official transit metric", "publisher": "Suez Canal Authority navigation reports / UNCTAD maritime publications", "url": "https://unctad.org/topic/transport-and-trade-logistics/review-of-maritime-transport", "expectedUnit": "Transits (count) · net tonnage (million tonnes) · or revenue (USD)", "expectedPeriod": "Monthly or annual", "whereFound": "SCA navigation-report PDF table, or a UNCTAD publication that states a figure in text. UNCTAD's review page returns HTTP 403; SCA publishes PDF reports.", "caveat": "Do not conflate transits, tonnage, and revenue — pick one per observation. Keep the existing dated Feb-2024 values labeled.", "confidenceNote": "Medium — official SCA/UNCTAD figure; one metric kind per observation.", "fields": [ "official source URL", "publisher", "value (the figure you read)", "unit", "period / as-of date", "where found (page / table / sheet / paragraph)", "any caveat the source states", "confidence note" ], "pasteMessage": "Claude: SCA report , page <p>. Suez <transits|tonnage|revenue> = <X> <unit> for <period>. Please update obs-redsea-suez (one metric kind)." }, { "id": "pink-sheet", "title": "World Bank Pink Sheet — wheat / fertilizer / gas", "publisher": "World Bank 'Pink Sheet' (Commodity Markets monthly data)", "url": "https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets", "expectedUnit": "USD/mt (wheat, fertilizer) · USD/mmbtu (gas)", "expectedPeriod": "Monthly", "whereFound": "Pink Sheet monthly XLSX/PDF — the specific sheet name, row, and cell for each commodity. The HTML page shows only index % changes, not levels.", "caveat": "Nominal commodity benchmark, not a conflict-causal figure. Unit/basis must be explicit. No binary parsing.", "confidenceNote": "Medium — official World Bank benchmark; nominal price, not causal.", "fields": [ "official source URL", "publisher", "value (the figure you read)", "unit", "period / as-of date", "where found (page / table / sheet / paragraph)", "any caveat the source states", "confidence note" ], "pasteMessage": "Claude: Pink Sheet <month>. Wheat = <X> USD/mt (sheet '<s>', cell <c>); fertilizer = <Y> USD/mt; gas = <Z> USD/mmbtu. Please add these as commodity benchmark observations." }, { "id": "grain-volumes", "title": "Black Sea grain export volumes", "publisher": "UN / FAO / WTO or Ukraine official corridor statistics", "url": "https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/en/", "expectedUnit": "Million tonnes / month", "expectedPeriod": "Monthly", "whereFound": "unknown — source workflow needed. The UN Black Sea Grain Initiative ended in 2023; current corridor tonnage is in dashboards/PDFs, not a directly-stated accessible HTML figure.", "caveat": "Must be an official/intergovernmental figure, not a news-derived estimate. Associative, not causal.", "confidenceNote": "Medium — must be an official/intergovernmental monthly tonnage, not news-derived.", "fields": [ "official source URL", "publisher", "value (the figure you read)", "unit", "period / as-of date", "where found (page / table / sheet / paragraph)", "any caveat the source states", "confidence note" ], "pasteMessage": "Claude: <UN/FAO/Ukraine source> <url> reports <X> million tonnes of corridor grain exports for <month>. Please promote obs-ukr-grain from sample to live." }, { "id": "ofac-vessel-count", "title": "OFAC cumulative shadow-fleet vessel count", "publisher": "OFAC SDN list / official Treasury action press releases", "url": "https://ofac.treasury.gov/sanctions-programs-and-country-information", "expectedUnit": "Vessels (cumulative count)", "expectedPeriod": "As of the access / action date", "whereFound": "unknown — source workflow needed. OFAC states per-action designations, not a cumulative total; the SDN list is a large binary file.", "caveat": "No scraping of the binary list. A derived count must be reproducible and recorded, or it is not promotable.", "confidenceNote": "Low — no official cumulative total; needs an official statement or a documented manual rule.", "fields": [ "official source URL", "publisher", "value (the figure you read)", "unit", "period / as-of date", "where found (page / table / sheet / paragraph)", "any caveat the source states", "confidence note" ], "pasteMessage": "Claude: Treasury release <url> states <N> shadow-fleet vessels cumulatively designated as of <date>. (Or: here is my documented manual count + rule.) Please assess whether this is promotable." } ], "evaluationPackets": [ { "id": "ais-maritime-provider", "title": "AIS / maritime data provider evaluation", "purpose": "Assess a specific AIS/maritime provider against the criteria before any delayed maritime layer could be considered. No vessel positions, no numbers — a terms/coverage/cost assessment only.", "fields": [ "provider / source name", "official documentation URL", "coverage (regions / indicators)", "live vs delayed (and the delay)", "API or downloadable dataset? (or interactive map only)", "free tier limits / where paid usage begins", "commercial reuse & redistribution rights", "required attribution", "caching / storage policy", "rate limits", "historical access", "data-quality / spoofing handling", "cost risk", "recommendation (links-only / declined / evaluate further)" ], "pasteMessage": "Claude: maritime provider evaluation. Provider <name>, docs <url>. Coverage <Hormuz/Red Sea?>, latency <live|delayed Xh>, access <API|dataset|map-only>, free tier <...>, reuse <allowed?>, attribution <...>, caching <...>, rate limits <...>, history <...>, spoofing handling <...>, cost <...>. My recommendation: <links-only|declined|evaluate further>. Please record this against the maritime-monitoring future item — do not ingest anything.", "caveat": "Not live tracking. Do not embed, scrape, or republish AIS data. Links-only is the default unless ingestion is justified and approved.", "links": [ { "label": "Maritime data evaluation", "href": "/methodology/maritime-data" }, { "label": "Live-data architecture", "href": "/methodology/live-data" } ] }, { "id": "live-data-api-provider", "title": "Future live/delayed data API evaluation", "purpose": "Assess any non-maritime feed (market/freight/oil benchmark, transit indicator) against the same criteria before a delayed/static value could ship. A source assessment, never a value.", "fields": [ "provider / source name", "official documentation URL", "coverage (regions / indicators)", "live vs delayed (and the delay)", "API or downloadable dataset? (or interactive map only)", "free tier limits / where paid usage begins", "commercial reuse & redistribution rights", "required attribution", "caching / storage policy", "rate limits", "historical access", "data-quality / spoofing handling", "cost risk", "recommendation (links-only / declined / evaluate further)" ], "pasteMessage": "Claude: data source evaluation. Source <name>, docs <url>, indicator <what>. Access <API|dataset|HTML|PDF|XLSX|paywall>, latency <...>, free tier <...>, reuse <allowed?>, attribution <...>, caching <...>, rate limits <...>, history <...>, cost <...>. My recommendation: <links-only|declined|evaluate further>. Please record against the market-data-indicators future item — no scraping, no paid APIs, no binary parsing.", "caveat": "No paid APIs, no scraping, no binary (PDF/XLSX) parsing. Only an accessible, reusable official source that states a dated value can proceed to a normal value packet.", "links": [ { "label": "Live-data architecture", "href": "/methodology/live-data" }, { "label": "Operator workbench", "href": "/operator" } ] } ] }