Warconomy

Global shipping risk

Last updated
Mixed data — source-linked live/static rows and sample rowsWarconomy combines manually maintained live/static indicators, source-linked to cited public sources, with clearly labeled sample rows where full coverage is pending. The live/static rows are not real-time and are refreshed by hand; sample rows must not be cited as current or measured figures. See the data coverage page for the full breakdown.
Freshness — review recommendedAt least one live/static indicator on this page has aged past its source’s typical update cadence (stale). The value remains source-linked and is not necessarily wrong, but a manual refresh against the cited source is recommended.

Global shipping risk reflects the level of disruption across major maritime routes and chokepoints, such as the Red Sea corridor, the Suez Canal, and the Strait of Hormuz. Elevated risk is associated with rerouting, longer transit times, tighter vessel capacity, and higher freight and insurance costs, which can pass through to the landed cost of goods. This dashboard organizes route-level indicators so overall conditions can be cited from one place. Coverage is partial and source-linked where live: IMF PortWatch reported that Suez Canal trade fell about 50% year over year in the first two months of 2024, while a composite risk index remains a clearly labeled sample. This is not a live maritime-tracking feed, it does not predict incidents, and the live row is a dated snapshot reviewed as of June 2026 and recommended for refresh.

  • Covers major routes and chokepoints including the Red Sea, Suez, and Hormuz.
  • IMF PortWatch reported Suez Canal trade −50% YoY in early 2024 (live/source-linked).
  • Elevated risk is associated with reroutes, delays, and higher freight costs.
  • Partial coverage: the composite risk index remains a labeled sample.
  • Not a live tracking feed and not a forecast; it does not predict incidents.

Latest indicators

Rows tagged “live · source-linked” are manually maintained from a cited public source on an annual cadence (not real-time); rows tagged “sample” are illustrative and pending source-linked replacement.

Coverage1 live/source-linked · 1 sample · 2 total
Sources2 sources (2 official/research)
Newest live review
Stalenessstale — review overdue

Live/static indicators are manually maintained from cited public sources and are not real-time. Sample rows remain labeled.

IndicatorValueAs ofSourceConfidence
Suez Canal trade-volume change-50 % YoYlive · source-linkedFebruary 29, 2024International Monetary FundMedium
Global shipping-risk index62 index (0–100)sampleMay 1, 2026UNCTADLow

Source-linked facts

  • Maritime disruption risk varies across chokepoints; UNCTAD reports on trade and transport impacts of such disruptions.

    Reported by UNCTADMedium

  • IMF PortWatch reported that the volume of trade transiting the Suez Canal fell by about 50% year over year in the first two months of 2024, while trade rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope rose by an estimated 74% — a reminder that chokepoint disruptions can reroute traffic rather than simply reduce global trade.

    Suez −50% YoY; Cape of Good Hope +74% (early 2024)Reported by International Monetary FundAs of March 7, 2024High

Methodology

Route-level indicators carry their own source, confidence, and data mode. The IMF PortWatch trade-volume figure is a live/static value transcribed from a cited public source on an irregular cadence (a dated snapshot, not real-time). The composite risk index remains a sample placeholder pending a documented, source-linked methodology. The dashboard reports conditions, not forecasts, and avoids causal attribution.

What changed recently

A dated change log for this dashboard, not news.

  • DataPromoted the Suez row to live/source-linked using IMF PortWatch (Suez trade −50% YoY, early 2024) and added an IMF source-linked fact. The composite risk index remains sample.
  • EditorialInitial sample dashboard published.

Data confidence & limitations

The IMF PortWatch trade-volume figure is source-linked (medium confidence; a dated early-2024 snapshot recommended for refresh). The composite index methodology and weights are not finalized and remain a sample value (low confidence).

Limitations

  • Coverage is partial: the IMF PortWatch row is live/source-linked; the composite index remains labeled sample.
  • Shipping metrics are not interchangeable — vessel transits, container-ship transits, trade volume, net tonnage, and revenue measure different things.
  • Chokepoint disruptions can reroute traffic rather than simply reduce global trade.
  • Source cadence varies; the live row is a dated snapshot, not real-time, and may be revised.
  • Not a forecast and not a causal attribution.

Sources

SourceTypeLink
IMF PortWatch — Red Sea Attacks Disrupt Global TradeIntergovernmentalwww.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2024/03/07/red-sea-attacks-disrupt-global-trade
UN Conference on Trade and DevelopmentIntergovernmentalunctad.org

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Warconomy. "Global shipping risk." Warconomy, last updated June 5, 2026. https://warconomy.com/dashboards/global-shipping-risk

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