{
  "name": "Warconomy — Global Shock Simulator",
  "asOf": "2026-06-05",
  "page": "https://warconomy.com/scenario-lab/global-shock",
  "kind": "educational-scenario-tools",
  "note": "Assumption-based, educational what-if scenarios for conflict-economy shocks. Each output is an illustrative composite of the user's own assumptions and the qualitative pathways described — NOT a forecast, NOT a prediction, NOT live market data, and NOT a military assessment. Source strength is labelled per element; no current prices, volumes, casualty or displacement numbers are asserted.",
  "controls": {
    "durations": [
      "3 days",
      "1 week",
      "1 month",
      "3 months",
      "6 months"
    ],
    "severities": [
      "mild",
      "moderate",
      "severe"
    ],
    "regions": [
      "Global",
      "Europe",
      "Middle East",
      "Asia",
      "United States",
      "Developing economies"
    ]
  },
  "sourceStrengthLegend": {
    "official-data": "Official data",
    "historical": "Historical pattern",
    "current-watch": "Current watch item",
    "user-assumption": "User assumption",
    "citation-only": "Citation-only source",
    "unavailable": "No source-backed value"
  },
  "scenarios": [
    {
      "id": "hormuz",
      "category": "chokepoint",
      "name": "Strait of Hormuz disruption",
      "short": "A narrow oil & LNG passage — pressure well beyond crude.",
      "baselineStrength": "citation-only",
      "durationDriven": true,
      "commodities": [
        "Crude oil",
        "LNG / natural gas",
        "Petrochemicals",
        "Fertilizer feedstock"
      ],
      "regions": [
        "Middle East",
        "Asia",
        "Europe",
        "Developing economies"
      ],
      "sectors": [
        {
          "sector": "Oil & gas",
          "exposure": "direct",
          "note": "Crude and LNG transit risk is the first-order channel.",
          "strength": "citation-only"
        },
        {
          "sector": "Shipping & insurance",
          "exposure": "direct",
          "note": "Rerouting and war-risk premiums raise freight costs.",
          "strength": "current-watch"
        },
        {
          "sector": "Petrochemicals & fertilizer",
          "exposure": "second-order",
          "note": "Gas-linked inputs feed plastics and fertilizer.",
          "strength": "historical"
        },
        {
          "sector": "Power & manufacturing",
          "exposure": "second-order",
          "note": "Energy-intensive output feels cost pressure.",
          "strength": "historical"
        },
        {
          "sector": "Government budgets",
          "exposure": "second-order",
          "note": "Fuel subsidies and inflation strain public finances.",
          "strength": "historical"
        }
      ],
      "caveat": "A scenario about economic channels and durations, not a prediction that Hormuz will be disrupted. Actual effects depend on duration, spare capacity, reserves, rerouting, contracts, insurance and policy response.",
      "related": [
        {
          "label": "Strait of Hormuz economic impact",
          "href": "/chokepoints/strait-of-hormuz/economic-impact",
          "url": "https://warconomy.com/chokepoints/strait-of-hormuz/economic-impact"
        },
        {
          "label": "Briefing: Iran/Hormuz oil & shipping risk",
          "href": "/briefings/iran-hormuz-oil-prices-shipping-risk",
          "url": "https://warconomy.com/briefings/iran-hormuz-oil-prices-shipping-risk"
        },
        {
          "label": "Energy & war topic",
          "href": "/topics/energy",
          "url": "https://warconomy.com/topics/energy"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "red-sea-suez",
      "category": "chokepoint",
      "name": "Red Sea / Suez diversion",
      "short": "Container ships reroute around Africa — slower, costlier trade.",
      "baselineStrength": "citation-only",
      "durationDriven": true,
      "commodities": [
        "Containerised goods",
        "Crude oil & products",
        "LNG",
        "Grain & food"
      ],
      "regions": [
        "Europe",
        "Asia",
        "Middle East",
        "Global"
      ],
      "sectors": [
        {
          "sector": "Container shipping",
          "exposure": "direct",
          "note": "Rerouting lengthens voyages and tightens capacity.",
          "strength": "current-watch"
        },
        {
          "sector": "Insurance",
          "exposure": "direct",
          "note": "War-risk premiums on the route can rise.",
          "strength": "historical"
        },
        {
          "sector": "Retail & manufacturing",
          "exposure": "second-order",
          "note": "Import timing and input costs are affected.",
          "strength": "historical"
        },
        {
          "sector": "Energy & food",
          "exposure": "second-order",
          "note": "Some oil, LNG and grain use the route.",
          "strength": "citation-only"
        }
      ],
      "caveat": "A scenario about rerouting and its costs, not a forecast. Actual effects depend on duration, spare capacity, contracts, inventories and how quickly schedules adjust.",
      "related": [
        {
          "label": "Red Sea shipping economic impact",
          "href": "/chokepoints/red-sea-shipping/economic-impact",
          "url": "https://warconomy.com/chokepoints/red-sea-shipping/economic-impact"
        },
        {
          "label": "Briefing: Red Sea shipping & commodity costs",
          "href": "/briefings/red-sea-shipping-costs-and-commodity-prices",
          "url": "https://warconomy.com/briefings/red-sea-shipping-costs-and-commodity-prices"
        },
        {
          "label": "Shipping & trade routes topic",
          "href": "/topics/shipping",
          "url": "https://warconomy.com/topics/shipping"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "panama",
      "category": "chokepoint",
      "name": "Panama Canal restrictions",
      "short": "Draft/traffic limits reshape US–Asia and LNG/agri routes.",
      "baselineStrength": "citation-only",
      "durationDriven": true,
      "commodities": [
        "Containerised goods",
        "LNG",
        "Grain & soybeans",
        "Bulk commodities"
      ],
      "regions": [
        "United States",
        "Asia",
        "Global"
      ],
      "sectors": [
        {
          "sector": "Container & bulk shipping",
          "exposure": "direct",
          "note": "Affected lanes face waits, reroutes and higher costs.",
          "strength": "current-watch"
        },
        {
          "sector": "LNG",
          "exposure": "direct",
          "note": "Some US LNG cargoes use the canal to reach Asia.",
          "strength": "citation-only"
        },
        {
          "sector": "Agriculture",
          "exposure": "second-order",
          "note": "US grain/soy export routes can be affected.",
          "strength": "historical"
        },
        {
          "sector": "Retail timing",
          "exposure": "second-order",
          "note": "US import timing on Asia lanes can shift.",
          "strength": "historical"
        }
      ],
      "caveat": "A scenario about a logistics disruption, not a forecast of canal conditions. Actual effects depend on water levels, scheduling, spare capacity and rerouting options.",
      "related": [
        {
          "label": "Chokepoints dashboard",
          "href": "/chokepoints/dashboard",
          "url": "https://warconomy.com/chokepoints/dashboard"
        },
        {
          "label": "Shipping & trade routes topic",
          "href": "/topics/shipping",
          "url": "https://warconomy.com/topics/shipping"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "black-sea-grain",
      "category": "chokepoint",
      "name": "Black Sea grain disruption",
      "short": "Wheat, maize & sunflower-oil exports and food-import risk.",
      "baselineStrength": "official-data",
      "durationDriven": true,
      "commodities": [
        "Wheat",
        "Maize",
        "Sunflower oil",
        "Fertilizer"
      ],
      "regions": [
        "Developing economies",
        "Middle East",
        "Europe",
        "Global"
      ],
      "sectors": [
        {
          "sector": "Grains & oilseeds",
          "exposure": "direct",
          "note": "Export availability is the first-order channel.",
          "strength": "official-data"
        },
        {
          "sector": "Fertilizer",
          "exposure": "direct",
          "note": "Regional fertilizer supply affects next season's harvests.",
          "strength": "historical"
        },
        {
          "sector": "Food processing & retail",
          "exposure": "second-order",
          "note": "Input costs pass through partly and slowly.",
          "strength": "historical"
        },
        {
          "sector": "Humanitarian / food security",
          "exposure": "second-order",
          "note": "Import-dependent and crisis-affected countries are most exposed.",
          "strength": "citation-only"
        }
      ],
      "caveat": "A scenario about food-trade channels, not a forecast. Retail food moves far less than world prices; pass-through is partial, lagged and country-specific.",
      "related": [
        {
          "label": "Commodity price history (FAO & World Bank)",
          "href": "/commodities/history",
          "url": "https://warconomy.com/commodities/history"
        },
        {
          "label": "Briefing: why wars affect food prices",
          "href": "/briefings/war-food-prices-explained",
          "url": "https://warconomy.com/briefings/war-food-prices-explained"
        },
        {
          "label": "Food & fertilizer topic",
          "href": "/topics/food-fertilizer",
          "url": "https://warconomy.com/topics/food-fertilizer"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "taiwan-invasion",
      "category": "conflict",
      "name": "Taiwan conflict (contingency)",
      "short": "Semiconductor & shipping exposure — economic channels only.",
      "baselineStrength": "citation-only",
      "durationDriven": true,
      "commodities": [
        "Advanced semiconductors",
        "Electronics components",
        "Shipping capacity"
      ],
      "regions": [
        "Asia",
        "United States",
        "Europe",
        "Global"
      ],
      "sectors": [
        {
          "sector": "Semiconductors",
          "exposure": "direct",
          "note": "Advanced-node concentration makes rapid substitution very hard.",
          "strength": "citation-only"
        },
        {
          "sector": "Electronics & autos",
          "exposure": "direct",
          "note": "Chip-dependent manufacturing faces input shortages.",
          "strength": "historical"
        },
        {
          "sector": "Shipping & insurance",
          "exposure": "second-order",
          "note": "Regional lanes and war-risk premiums could be affected.",
          "strength": "historical"
        },
        {
          "sector": "Defense & fiscal",
          "exposure": "second-order",
          "note": "Stockpiling and defense-spending responses could follow.",
          "strength": "historical"
        },
        {
          "sector": "Households (electronics)",
          "exposure": "second-order",
          "note": "Electronics availability and prices could feel pressure.",
          "strength": "unavailable"
        }
      ],
      "caveat": "A hypothetical economic-channel scenario, NOT a military forecast and NOT a probability. It explores supply-chain exposure only; actual effects depend on duration, inventories, substitution and policy response.",
      "related": [
        {
          "label": "Briefing: Taiwan & semiconductor risk",
          "href": "/briefings/taiwan-conflict-semiconductors-economic-risk",
          "url": "https://warconomy.com/briefings/taiwan-conflict-semiconductors-economic-risk"
        },
        {
          "label": "Critical minerals topic",
          "href": "/topics/critical-minerals",
          "url": "https://warconomy.com/topics/critical-minerals"
        },
        {
          "label": "Conflict map",
          "href": "/conflict-map",
          "url": "https://warconomy.com/conflict-map"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "taiwan-blockade",
      "category": "conflict",
      "name": "Taiwan blockade (contingency)",
      "short": "A shipping-and-export scenario, distinct from invasion.",
      "baselineStrength": "citation-only",
      "durationDriven": true,
      "commodities": [
        "Advanced semiconductors",
        "Containerised goods",
        "LNG & energy imports"
      ],
      "regions": [
        "Asia",
        "United States",
        "Europe",
        "Global"
      ],
      "sectors": [
        {
          "sector": "Shipping & air freight",
          "exposure": "direct",
          "note": "Rerouting and insurance raise logistics costs.",
          "strength": "historical"
        },
        {
          "sector": "Semiconductors",
          "exposure": "direct",
          "note": "Export/logistics disruption can choke supply without damage.",
          "strength": "citation-only"
        },
        {
          "sector": "Regional energy imports",
          "exposure": "second-order",
          "note": "Energy-importing economies near the region watch supply lines.",
          "strength": "historical"
        },
        {
          "sector": "Electronics (households)",
          "exposure": "second-order",
          "note": "Consumer-electronics timing and prices feel pressure.",
          "strength": "unavailable"
        }
      ],
      "caveat": "A hypothetical economic-channel scenario, NOT a military forecast. It explores shipping and supply-chain exposure only; effects depend on duration, rerouting, inventories and policy response.",
      "related": [
        {
          "label": "Briefing: Taiwan & semiconductor risk",
          "href": "/briefings/taiwan-conflict-semiconductors-economic-risk",
          "url": "https://warconomy.com/briefings/taiwan-conflict-semiconductors-economic-risk"
        },
        {
          "label": "Shipping & trade routes topic",
          "href": "/topics/shipping",
          "url": "https://warconomy.com/topics/shipping"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "china-rare-earth",
      "category": "minerals",
      "name": "Rare-earth export restriction",
      "short": "Magnets, EVs, wind & defense — refining is the bottleneck.",
      "baselineStrength": "citation-only",
      "durationDriven": false,
      "commodities": [
        "Rare-earth oxides",
        "Permanent magnets (NdFeB)",
        "Separated rare-earth metals"
      ],
      "regions": [
        "Global",
        "Asia",
        "United States",
        "Europe"
      ],
      "sectors": [
        {
          "sector": "Permanent magnets",
          "exposure": "direct",
          "note": "The true bottleneck — refining and magnet-making are concentrated.",
          "strength": "citation-only"
        },
        {
          "sector": "EVs & motors",
          "exposure": "direct",
          "note": "Traction motors rely on rare-earth magnets.",
          "strength": "historical"
        },
        {
          "sector": "Wind turbines",
          "exposure": "direct",
          "note": "Many direct-drive turbines use rare-earth magnets.",
          "strength": "historical"
        },
        {
          "sector": "Defense systems",
          "exposure": "second-order",
          "note": "Some precision systems use rare-earth magnets.",
          "strength": "citation-only"
        },
        {
          "sector": "Electronics",
          "exposure": "second-order",
          "note": "Smaller magnets and components are affected.",
          "strength": "historical"
        }
      ],
      "caveat": "A scenario about a concentrated supply chain, not a forecast. Rare earths are distinct from lithium/cobalt/copper; the binding constraint is processing/refining and magnet-making, and substitution takes years.",
      "related": [
        {
          "label": "Critical minerals & conflict",
          "href": "/minerals",
          "url": "https://warconomy.com/minerals"
        },
        {
          "label": "Critical minerals topic",
          "href": "/topics/critical-minerals",
          "url": "https://warconomy.com/topics/critical-minerals"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "russia-oil-refinery",
      "category": "conflict",
      "name": "Russia oil / refinery disruption",
      "short": "Crude exports, diesel/gasoline and the sanctions pathway.",
      "baselineStrength": "citation-only",
      "durationDriven": true,
      "commodities": [
        "Crude oil",
        "Diesel",
        "Gasoline",
        "Refined products"
      ],
      "regions": [
        "Europe",
        "Global",
        "Developing economies"
      ],
      "sectors": [
        {
          "sector": "Refined products",
          "exposure": "direct",
          "note": "Diesel/gasoline can tighten independently of crude.",
          "strength": "citation-only"
        },
        {
          "sector": "Crude trade & shipping",
          "exposure": "direct",
          "note": "Rerouting and the shadow fleet shift flows and discounts.",
          "strength": "current-watch"
        },
        {
          "sector": "Transport & logistics",
          "exposure": "second-order",
          "note": "Diesel-dependent freight and farming feel cost pressure.",
          "strength": "historical"
        },
        {
          "sector": "Government budgets",
          "exposure": "second-order",
          "note": "Fuel subsidies and inflation strain exposed states.",
          "strength": "historical"
        }
      ],
      "caveat": "A scenario about fuel-product channels, not a forecast. Refinery-outage and export specifics live with cited official sources; effects depend on spare capacity, stocks and sanctions enforcement.",
      "related": [
        {
          "label": "Russia energy-trade sanctions",
          "href": "/sanctions/russia-energy-trade/economic-impact",
          "url": "https://warconomy.com/sanctions/russia-energy-trade/economic-impact"
        },
        {
          "label": "Briefing: sanctions, price cap & shadow fleet",
          "href": "/briefings/sanctions-shadow-fleet-oil-trade",
          "url": "https://warconomy.com/briefings/sanctions-shadow-fleet-oil-trade"
        },
        {
          "label": "Energy & war topic",
          "href": "/topics/energy",
          "url": "https://warconomy.com/topics/energy"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "port-cyberattack",
      "category": "supply-chain",
      "name": "Major port / shipping cyberattack",
      "short": "Logistics IT outage — delays, bottlenecks and uncertainty.",
      "baselineStrength": "historical",
      "durationDriven": true,
      "commodities": [
        "Containerised goods",
        "Perishables",
        "Manufacturing inputs"
      ],
      "regions": [
        "Global",
        "Europe",
        "United States",
        "Asia"
      ],
      "sectors": [
        {
          "sector": "Ports & logistics",
          "exposure": "direct",
          "note": "Throughput drops while systems are down.",
          "strength": "historical"
        },
        {
          "sector": "Manufacturing",
          "exposure": "second-order",
          "note": "Just-in-time input delays ripple through production.",
          "strength": "historical"
        },
        {
          "sector": "Perishables & retail",
          "exposure": "second-order",
          "note": "Time-sensitive goods are most exposed.",
          "strength": "historical"
        },
        {
          "sector": "Insurance",
          "exposure": "second-order",
          "note": "Cyber and cargo insurance/uncertainty costs rise.",
          "strength": "historical"
        }
      ],
      "caveat": "A scenario about a logistics-IT disruption, not a forecast. Effects depend on attack scope, backup systems, recovery speed and inventories.",
      "related": [
        {
          "label": "Shipping & trade routes topic",
          "href": "/topics/shipping",
          "url": "https://warconomy.com/topics/shipping"
        },
        {
          "label": "Chokepoints dashboard",
          "href": "/chokepoints/dashboard",
          "url": "https://warconomy.com/chokepoints/dashboard"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "migration-shock",
      "category": "migration",
      "name": "War-driven migration shock",
      "short": "Labour loss at origin, services & growth at destination.",
      "baselineStrength": "citation-only",
      "durationDriven": false,
      "commodities": [],
      "regions": [
        "Developing economies",
        "Europe",
        "Global"
      ],
      "sectors": [
        {
          "sector": "Origin labour force",
          "exposure": "direct",
          "note": "Skills and workers are lost, lowering potential output.",
          "strength": "historical"
        },
        {
          "sector": "Host services",
          "exposure": "direct",
          "note": "Housing, schooling and healthcare face short-term pressure.",
          "strength": "historical"
        },
        {
          "sector": "Remittances",
          "exposure": "second-order",
          "note": "Cross-border transfers support origin households.",
          "strength": "citation-only"
        },
        {
          "sector": "Long-run growth",
          "exposure": "second-order",
          "note": "Outcomes hinge on integration, return and investment.",
          "strength": "historical"
        }
      ],
      "caveat": "A scenario about long-run economic channels, handled with dignity. It shows no casualty or displacement numbers; outcomes depend heavily on policy, integration and return.",
      "related": [
        {
          "label": "War, population & economic scarring",
          "href": "/human-capital",
          "url": "https://warconomy.com/human-capital"
        },
        {
          "label": "Briefing: refugees, migration & brain drain",
          "href": "/briefings/refugees-migration-brain-drain-war-economy",
          "url": "https://warconomy.com/briefings/refugees-migration-brain-drain-war-economy"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "defense-surge",
      "category": "fiscal",
      "name": "Defense-spending surge",
      "short": "Budgets, borrowing, inflation pressure and the industrial base.",
      "baselineStrength": "official-data",
      "durationDriven": false,
      "commodities": [],
      "regions": [
        "Europe",
        "United States",
        "Global"
      ],
      "sectors": [
        {
          "sector": "Government budgets",
          "exposure": "direct",
          "note": "Spending and financing choices drive the fiscal effect.",
          "strength": "official-data"
        },
        {
          "sector": "Defense industry",
          "exposure": "direct",
          "note": "Suppliers and defense-industrial regions can gain.",
          "strength": "historical"
        },
        {
          "sector": "Public services",
          "exposure": "second-order",
          "note": "Crowd-out risk depends on financing.",
          "strength": "historical"
        },
        {
          "sector": "Inflation / debt",
          "exposure": "second-order",
          "note": "Macro effects depend on financing and conditions.",
          "strength": "historical"
        }
      ],
      "caveat": "A scenario about fiscal channels, not a forecast. Whether higher defense spending crowds out other spending depends on financing, growth and policy — it is not asserted here.",
      "related": [
        {
          "label": "Defense spending hub",
          "href": "/defense",
          "url": "https://warconomy.com/defense"
        },
        {
          "label": "Scenario Lab: defense burden calculator",
          "href": "/scenario-lab",
          "url": "https://warconomy.com/scenario-lab"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "sanctions-escalation",
      "category": "sanctions",
      "name": "Sanctions escalation",
      "short": "Energy trade, payments, rerouting and spillovers.",
      "baselineStrength": "official-data",
      "durationDriven": false,
      "commodities": [
        "Crude oil",
        "Refined products",
        "Natural gas"
      ],
      "regions": [
        "Europe",
        "Global",
        "Developing economies"
      ],
      "sectors": [
        {
          "sector": "Energy trade",
          "exposure": "direct",
          "note": "Export restrictions reshape flows and discounts.",
          "strength": "official-data"
        },
        {
          "sector": "Banking & payments",
          "exposure": "direct",
          "note": "Payment-system access is a core channel.",
          "strength": "citation-only"
        },
        {
          "sector": "Shipping & insurance",
          "exposure": "second-order",
          "note": "Rerouting and shadow-fleet logistics adapt.",
          "strength": "current-watch"
        },
        {
          "sector": "Third countries",
          "exposure": "second-order",
          "note": "Spillovers can reach non-targeted economies.",
          "strength": "historical"
        }
      ],
      "caveat": "A scenario about economic channels, not legal or compliance advice and not a forecast. Effects depend on enforcement, rerouting, substitution and spillovers.",
      "related": [
        {
          "label": "Sanctions dashboard",
          "href": "/sanctions/dashboard",
          "url": "https://warconomy.com/sanctions/dashboard"
        },
        {
          "label": "Sanctions topic",
          "href": "/topics/sanctions",
          "url": "https://warconomy.com/topics/sanctions"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "critical-minerals",
      "category": "minerals",
      "name": "Critical-minerals conflict shock",
      "short": "Cobalt, copper, lithium, nickel, graphite — batteries & grids.",
      "baselineStrength": "citation-only",
      "durationDriven": false,
      "commodities": [
        "Cobalt",
        "Copper",
        "Lithium",
        "Nickel",
        "Graphite"
      ],
      "regions": [
        "Africa",
        "Asia",
        "Global"
      ],
      "sectors": [
        {
          "sector": "Batteries",
          "exposure": "direct",
          "note": "Cobalt, lithium, nickel and graphite are battery-critical.",
          "strength": "citation-only"
        },
        {
          "sector": "Grids & wiring",
          "exposure": "direct",
          "note": "Copper is central to electrification and grids.",
          "strength": "official-data"
        },
        {
          "sector": "EVs & electronics",
          "exposure": "second-order",
          "note": "Downstream products feel input pressure.",
          "strength": "historical"
        },
        {
          "sector": "Defense production",
          "exposure": "second-order",
          "note": "Some systems depend on specific minerals.",
          "strength": "citation-only"
        }
      ],
      "caveat": "A scenario about concentrated supply chains, not a forecast. Minerals differ — cobalt, copper, lithium, nickel and graphite each have their own concentration, processing and substitution profile.",
      "related": [
        {
          "label": "Critical minerals & conflict",
          "href": "/minerals",
          "url": "https://warconomy.com/minerals"
        },
        {
          "label": "Briefing: DRC cobalt & copper",
          "href": "/briefings/drc-conflict-cobalt-copper-trade",
          "url": "https://warconomy.com/briefings/drc-conflict-cobalt-copper-trade"
        },
        {
          "label": "Critical minerals topic",
          "href": "/topics/critical-minerals",
          "url": "https://warconomy.com/topics/critical-minerals"
        }
      ]
    }
  ]
}