🛡️ Sanctions, tariffs & taxes — how pressure reaches prices
Scenario · not a forecastSanctions, tariffs and taxes are tools of economic pressure. A tariff or tax you enter is simple arithmetic on a price; sanctions work indirectly — on supply, routing, insurance, financing and substitution. Enter a price and see a before → after scenario range, with the direct and indirect effects kept separate. Your assumptions, not a forecast or a political claim.
Start here — a price:
Tariff / tax is direct arithmetic: a rate applied to the price, scoped by pass-through. Set the rate to 0 to ignore it.
Sanctions are indirect: they restrict supply and raise cost through routing, insurance, financing and substitution. The tool shows an assumption-based pressure from the severity and substitution you set — never a faked direct price. Set severity to 0 to ignore it.
Direct: tariff or tax (arithmetic)
Indirect: sanctions / restricted supply (assumption)
On a $100.00 price, a 10% tariff/tax adds about +$6.00 directly, and a 15% sanctions-severity assumption (eased by 40% substitution) adds about +$2.43 of indirect pressure by 3 months — a scenario range of $105.62–$111.24. A scenario, not a forecast.
Direct arithmetic and indirect pressure, kept separate — move any control to watch it change.
Your before → after scenario range.
What drives the change?
What changes first / later (mid assumption)
Sensitivity — pass-through vs after price
Households Tariffs and taxes can raise a price directly; sanctions more often show up as scarcity, delays or fewer choices than as a clean price tag.
Businesses Tariffs are a known cost to plan around; sanctions add compliance, financing, insurance and routing friction, and push firms to substitute suppliers.
Government These are levers of economic pressure and revenue; effects depend on retaliation, exemptions, enforcement and how easily supply reroutes.
What this does not include:any specific country's actual tariff schedule, tax code or sanctions list; retaliation, exemptions, quotas or legal carve-outs; exchange-rate, financing and insurance channels beyond the severity you set; and whether any measure will be imposed, changed or lifted. This is a way to reason about economic pressure — not a political or moral judgement, and not a forecast.
A scenario built on a price you enter and your assumptions — direct tariff/tax arithmetic kept separate from indirect sanctions pressure. Not a forecast, not legal or investment advice, not a political claim.
How it works & what it won't do
This tool shows how sanctions, tariffs and taxes can affect prices — as economic pressure, not a political judgement. A tariff or tax rate you enter is treated as plain arithmetic: the rate applied to the price, scoped by pass-through. Sanctions are treated as indirect pressure: they restrict supply and raise cost through routing, insurance, financing and substitution, so the tool only shows an assumption-based pressure from the severity and substitution you set — it never fakes a direct sanctions price. You get a before → after range, the direct and indirect effects split apart, and a 'what changes first / later' timeline.
- Tariff/tax = direct arithmetic (rate × price × pass-through); set the rate to 0 to ignore it.
- Sanctions = indirect, assumption-based supply pressure eased by substitution and ramped over time.
- No specific country's real tariff schedule, tax code or sanctions list is used or implied.
- Machine-readable at /scenario-lab/economic-warfare/data.json.
What this tool deliberately does not do
- It does not use any specific country's actual tariff schedule, tax code or sanctions list.
- It never fakes a direct sanctions price — sanctions are shown as indirect, assumption-based pressure.
- It does not forecast whether any measure will be imposed, changed or lifted.
- It is a framing of economic pressure, not a political or moral judgement, and not legal or investment advice.
Machine-readable export: /scenario-lab/economic-warfare/data.json.