{
  "name": "Warconomy — Scenario Lab",
  "asOf": "2026-06-05",
  "page": "https://warconomy.com/scenario-lab",
  "kind": "educational-scenario-tools",
  "note": "Illustrative what-if calculators built on transparent arithmetic and source-linked baselines. Scenarios, NOT forecasts or predictions. No invented data; baselines come from committed World Bank and FAO snapshots. Not investment advice.",
  "baselines": {
    "brent": {
      "value": 73.833,
      "unit": "$/bbl",
      "date": "2024-12"
    },
    "wheat": {
      "value": 252.17,
      "unit": "$/mt",
      "date": "2024-12"
    },
    "gasEurope": {
      "value": 13.8566,
      "unit": "$/mmbtu",
      "date": "2024-12"
    },
    "foodIndex": {
      "value": 130.8,
      "basis": "2014-2016 = 100",
      "date": "2026-05"
    },
    "source": {
      "wb": "World Bank World Bank Commodity Price Data (the Pink Sheet)",
      "fao": "Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) FAO Food Price Index"
    },
    "asOf": {
      "wb": "2026-06-25",
      "fao": "2026-06-10"
    }
  },
  "assumptions": {
    "gallonsPerBarrel": {
      "value": 42,
      "note": "1 barrel of crude = 42 US gallons (definition).",
      "source": "U.S. Energy Information Administration (units)."
    },
    "retailFoodPassThrough": {
      "value": 0.2,
      "note": "Only part of a world commodity-price move reaches the supermarket shelf, and slowly — retail food also reflects labour, energy, packaging, transport and margins. 20% is an adjustable illustrative default, not a measured constant.",
      "source": "General economic literature on food-price pass-through (illustrative)."
    },
    "labourShare": {
      "value": 0.62,
      "note": "Labour's share of output in standard growth accounting is roughly 0.6. A fall in the labour force lowers output mechanically by about (labour share × the percentage fall), all else equal.",
      "source": "Standard growth-accounting (Cobb–Douglas) convention; illustrative."
    }
  },
  "calculators": [
    {
      "id": "oil-shock",
      "title": "Oil price shock → crude cost per gallon",
      "baseline": "Brent 73.833 $/bbl (2024-12)"
    },
    {
      "id": "food-shock",
      "title": "World food-price move → household food bill",
      "baseline": "FAO Food Price Index 130.8 (2026-05)"
    },
    {
      "id": "labour-loss",
      "title": "Labour-force loss → output (growth accounting)",
      "baseline": "labour share 0.62"
    },
    {
      "id": "defense-burden",
      "title": "Defense burden → spending as a share of GDP",
      "baseline": "user-set GDP size"
    }
  ]
}