Warconomy separates what it knows from what it estimates from what it predicts. An observation is something a source directly reported. A reconstruction fills a historical gap. A nowcast estimates the present before official data lands. A forecast predicts a defined future outcome by a stated date. A scenario is a conditional 'what if' with no probability attached. A claim is something a named party asserted that Warconomy has not verified. Each is labeled distinctly on every page, and a modeled value is never rendered so it looks like an observation. Forecasts are immutable once issued: a changed view becomes a new record and the original stays public so it can be scored.
- Weak and unofficial sources may be used where they genuinely improve coverage — but always labeled, never as the resolution source.
- Warconomy does not forecast casualty counts.
- Probabilities are published only as coarse bands with stated numeric meanings.
- A forecast that later proves wrong stays published, scored, and explained.
Observation, reconstruction, nowcast, forecast, scenario
These are five different kinds of statement and Warconomy never blurs them. An observation is directly reported by a source. A reconstruction is a Warconomy estimate filling a gap where no source published. A nowcastestimates a current period before the official figure exists — it is never labeled “current official data.” A forecast predicts a defined future outcome with a horizon and a resolution source. A scenario is explicitly conditional and carries no probability; if Warconomy is willing to say something is more likely than not, that is a forecast, not a scenario. Full definitions: the epistemic-class model.
When weak or unofficial sources may be used
Warconomy deliberately admits weaker sources — local media, trade press, independent trackers, specialist analysts — where a strong institutional source does not exist or does not publish quickly enough. Leaving a field blank is not automatically the more honest choice; hiding a real gap behind silence can mislead as much as overstating certainty. The rules are strict:
- The source must be identifiable and attributed by name — never an unattributed viral graphic.
- The forecast must disclose why the weak source was admitted and what gap it fills.
- A weak source may support a directional judgment but is never the resolution source that decides a forecast.
- Any forecast resting materially on weak evidence carries provisional evidence status.
- Disagreements between sources are shown side by side, never averaged into a false single number.
- A combatant's or interested party's claim is labeled a claim, and is never converted into a verified observation or used as a verified forecast input.
Immutability, revision, and corrections
An issued forecast is never edited. If Warconomy's view changes, a new record is issued and the old one is marked superseded with a link to its replacement — both stay publicly reachable at their own URLs. The only permitted post-issue addition is a resolution block recording what actually happened, which sits alongside rather than replacing the original prediction. This makes it impossible to quietly rewrite a forecast to look correct after the fact.
Factual corrections to underlying data are recorded as revisions with the prior value preserved. A correction is never applied silently.
Resolution and scoring
Every forecast names, at issue time, the exact criteria and the published source that will decide it. Where an outcome cannot be measured — the source stops publishing, or changes definition — the forecast is marked unresolvable with a stated reason and excluded from scoring rather than being judged against a weaker substitute. Warconomy publishes no invented accuracy percentage and reports plainly when it has too few resolved forecasts to claim any skill.
Probability band definitions
| Band | Meaning |
|---|---|
| very unlikely | roughly 5-20% |
| unlikely | roughly 20-40% |
| roughly even | roughly 40-60% |
| likely | roughly 60-80% |
| very likely | roughly 80-95% |
Hard limits by subject
Casualty forecasts
Warconomy does not forecast casualty counts.It will not publish a predicted number of deaths or injuries. Where a conflict's human cost bears on an outlook, Warconomy forecasts only whether an already-published official series continues an already-observed trend — a statement about a reporting series, not a prediction of how many people will be harmed. Human-cost figures themselves are reported, sourced, and labeled at the human cost of conflict.
Conflict and escalation
No deterministic war predictions. Conflict forecasts target observable, resolvable operational or institutional events with explicit invalidation conditions — never a claim that a war will or will not occur.
Energy, commodities, and markets
Warconomy prefers scenario ranges and threshold events to point-price precision, and publishes no trading instructions. Where it tracks a price-related target, it is typically about whether a named institution revises its own published forecast — a statement about a forecaster, not a market call.
Sanctions
Sanctions forecasts distinguish announced measures, proposed measures, measures under political discussion, and Warconomy's own forecast. They resolve against the issuing authority's own published legal act, never against press reporting. Nothing here is legal or compliance advice.
Humanitarian projections
Displacement and humanitarian-pressure forecasts are framed as thresholds on published official series, with explicit acknowledgement that those series are themselves estimates with access limitations.
External forecasts and attribution
When an institution such as the EIA, IMF, or World Bank publishes its own forecast, Warconomy presents it as that institution's forecast, clearly attributed, and never as a Warconomy model output. Where Warconomy forecasts how such an institution will revise its own numbers, the page says so explicitly.
Provenance and conflicts of interest
- Warconomy scenarios and forecasts are produced from public sources and published methods. They are never presented as leaked intelligence, official projections, insider information, or as endorsed by any government or institution.
- Warconomy takes no position in any traded instrument referenced on the site and publishes no trading advice.
- Warconomy is not funded by, and does not act on behalf of, any party to any conflict it covers.
- Warconomy is not a live data provider: it holds no AIS or vessel-tracking licence and shows no vessel positions.
Related
Forecasting methods and model cards · Observed vs. modeled values · Active forecasts · Track record