- Issued
- Data cutoff
- Horizon
- 212 days
- Resolves by
- Next review
- Epistemic class
- Forecast (modeled, not observed)
- Evidence status
- reported
How this resolves
Resolves TRUE if OHCHR/HRMMU's published monthly Protection of Civilians reporting shows any single month from July 2026 through December 2026 with total verified civilian casualties (killed + injured) exceeding 1,562 — the H1 2026 monthly average derived from OHCHR's reported 1,396 killed and 7,978 injured across six months. Resolves FALSE if no month in that window exceeds it. Resolves UNRESOLVABLE if OHCHR ceases monthly publication.
Resolution source: OHCHR / UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine, monthly Protection of Civilians reporting
Assumptions
- OHCHR reported June 2026 (293 killed, 1,990 injured — 2,283 total) as the highest monthly total since April 2022, already well above the H1 average.
- OHCHR described a month-on-month escalatory trend through H1 2026, attributing it substantially to increased long-range missile and drone use in urban areas.
- OHCHR continues its monthly publication cadence.
Leading indicators to watch
- OHCHR's monthly Protection of Civilians releases
- Reported intensity of long-range strike campaigns against urban areas
- Any ceasefire or negotiated pause in long-range strikes
What would make this wrong
- A ceasefire or negotiated halt to long-range strikes on urban areas.
- OHCHR changing its verification methodology or losing the access needed to publish comparable monthly figures.
Known data gaps
- OHCHR verifies only what it can access and states the real toll is considerably higher, so this series is a documented floor rather than a total — the forecast is about the published series, not about actual harm.
Methodology
Takes the recent pace of change in an official series and keeps it going, assuming nothing dramatic happens. Simple, transparent, and easy to check — but it will miss sudden shocks.
Uncertainty: A plausible-range bracket, widened for longer horizons, reflecting the compounding risk that the constant-rate assumption breaks down. Not a statistical confidence interval — labeled as plausible-range throughout.
Validation: Compared against a no-change naive baseline on historical published points where two or more comparable rounds exist. See /forecast-track-record for the hindcast demonstrations.
Full model card: Trend continuation (rule-based) v1.0.
Sources
| Source | Type | Link |
|---|---|---|
| OHCHR — UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine, Protection of Civilians reporting | Intergovernmental | ukraine.ohchr.org/en/reports/protection-of-civilians |
All forecast fields (accessible table)
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Forecast ID | fc-2026-07-18-ukraine-civilian-casualty-trend |
| Target variable | OHCHR/HRMMU monthly verified civilian casualties in Ukraine (killed plus injured) |
| Target event | At least one month between July and December 2026 records verified civilian casualties above the January-June 2026 monthly average of roughly 1,562 |
| Prediction | very likely (roughly 80-95%) |
| Issue date | 2026-07-18 |
| Data cutoff | 2026-07-18 |
| Horizon (days) | 212 |
| Resolution date | 2027-02-15 |
| Resolution source | OHCHR / UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine, monthly Protection of Civilians reporting |
| Status | active |
| Epistemic class | forecast |
| Evidence status | reported |
| Model | trend-continuation-v1 v1.0 |
| Hindcast | No |
Machine-readable: /forecasts/data.json