- Issued
- Data cutoff
- Horizon
- 531 days
- Resolves by
- Next review
- Epistemic class
- Forecast (modeled, not observed)
- Evidence status
- reported
How this resolves
Resolves TRUE if the next Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment edition published after 18 July 2026 by the World Bank Group with the Government of Ukraine, European Commission and UN states total recovery and reconstruction needs strictly greater than $588 billion in nominal US dollars. Resolves FALSE if the figure is equal or lower. Resolves UNRESOLVABLE if no new RDNA edition is published before 31 December 2027, or if the successor assessment changes units or scope so that no comparable total exists.
Resolution source: World Bank Group Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment (RDNA) series press release and report
Assumptions
- RDNA5 (published 23 February 2026, data as of 31 December 2025) put ten-year needs at almost $588 billion, up from RDNA4's lower figure — the series has risen at each successive edition.
- Direct damage rose from over $176 billion (RDNA4) to over $195 billion (RDNA5), and hostilities have continued since the RDNA5 data cutoff.
- Successive editions keep a broadly comparable ten-year needs definition.
Leading indicators to watch
- Continued strikes on energy, transport and housing — the three largest RDNA5 needs sectors
- Announcement of an RDNA6 assessment exercise
- Nominal-dollar construction cost inflation in Ukraine, which raises needs independently of new damage
What would make this wrong
- A durable ceasefire early enough that new damage is minimal and cost inflation is offset.
- A methodology change that narrows scope (e.g. shortening the recovery window from ten years) and mechanically lowers the headline.
Known data gaps
- No RDNA6 publication date has been announced, making the resolution timing uncertain — this is the main unresolvability risk and the reason for a generous resolution date.
Methodology
Takes the recent pace of change in an official series and keeps it going, assuming nothing dramatic happens. Simple, transparent, and easy to check — but it will miss sudden shocks.
Uncertainty: A plausible-range bracket, widened for longer horizons, reflecting the compounding risk that the constant-rate assumption breaks down. Not a statistical confidence interval — labeled as plausible-range throughout.
Validation: Compared against a no-change naive baseline on historical published points where two or more comparable rounds exist. See /forecast-track-record for the hindcast demonstrations.
Full model card: Trend continuation (rule-based) v1.0.
Sources
| Source | Type | Link |
|---|---|---|
| World Bank / Government of Ukraine / EC / UN — Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment (RDNA5) | Intergovernmental | www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2026/02/23/updated-ukraine-recovery-and-reconstruction-needs-assessment-released |
| World Bank | Intergovernmental | www.worldbank.org |
All forecast fields (accessible table)
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Forecast ID | fc-2026-07-18-ukraine-reconstruction-estimate |
| Target variable | Total ten-year Ukraine recovery and reconstruction needs, RDNA series |
| Target event | The next published RDNA edition estimates total ten-year needs above $588 billion |
| Prediction | very likely (roughly 80-95%) |
| Issue date | 2026-07-18 |
| Data cutoff | 2026-07-18 |
| Horizon (days) | 531 |
| Resolution date | 2027-12-31 |
| Resolution source | World Bank Group Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment (RDNA) series press release and report |
| Status | active |
| Epistemic class | forecast |
| Evidence status | reported |
| Model | trend-continuation-v1 v1.0 |
| Hindcast | No |
Machine-readable: /forecasts/data.json