- Issued
- Data cutoff
- Horizon
- 256 days
- Resolves by
- Next review
- Epistemic class
- Forecast (modeled, not observed)
- Evidence status
- reported
How this resolves
Resolves TRUE if the first IOM DTM Sudan displacement/return snapshot published after 18 July 2026 reports a national IDP estimate strictly greater than 8,000,000. Resolves FALSE if it reports 8,000,000 or fewer. If DTM does not publish a national IDP total for Sudan before 31 March 2027, resolves UNRESOLVABLE.
Resolution source: IOM Displacement Tracking Matrix, Sudan displacement and return snapshots
Assumptions
- DTM's 29 March 2026 round recorded an estimated 8,936,175 IDPs, leaving roughly 936,000 of headroom above the 8 million threshold.
- The observed decline from the 11,585,384 peak has been gradual rather than abrupt, and roughly 350,000 people were newly displaced between October 2025 and March 2026 — meaning returns and new displacement partly offset.
- DTM continues publishing a comparable national IDP total.
Leading indicators to watch
- New displacement reporting from Al Fasher, North Darfur, the Kordofan region, and Blue Nile state
- DTM return-figure growth relative to new-displacement figures
- Any ceasefire or humanitarian-access agreement that would accelerate returns
What would make this wrong
- A comprehensive ceasefire prompting mass returns at a pace far exceeding the observed trend.
- IOM DTM changing its Sudan displacement methodology or geographic coverage in a way that breaks comparability.
Known data gaps
- DTM publication timing is irregular, so the resolution date is set generously; a long gap between rounds is the main unresolvability risk.
- Access constraints in active-conflict areas of Darfur and Kordofan limit direct verification of any sub-national component.
Modeled inputs used
This forecast is built partly on Warconomy's own modeled values rather than purely on observations — those inputs carry their own uncertainty.
- Reconstructed historical estimate
he-sudan-idp-2025-10— see modeled examples. - Nowcast
nc-sudan-idp-2026-q2— an estimate of a period with no official figure yet.
Version history
- Supersedes Sudan IDPs by December 2026 (superseded) (issued July 17, 2026).
Methodology
Takes the recent pace of change in an official series and keeps it going, assuming nothing dramatic happens. Simple, transparent, and easy to check — but it will miss sudden shocks.
Uncertainty: A plausible-range bracket, widened for longer horizons, reflecting the compounding risk that the constant-rate assumption breaks down. Not a statistical confidence interval — labeled as plausible-range throughout.
Validation: Compared against a no-change naive baseline on historical published points where two or more comparable rounds exist. See /forecast-track-record for the hindcast demonstrations.
Full model card: Trend continuation (rule-based) v1.0.
Sources
| Source | Type | Link |
|---|---|---|
| IOM — Displacement Tracking Matrix, Sudan | Intergovernmental | dtm.iom.int/sudan |
All forecast fields (accessible table)
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Forecast ID | fc-2026-07-18-sudan-idp-threshold |
| Target variable | IOM DTM Sudan total internally displaced persons |
| Target event | IOM DTM's next published Sudan displacement round reports a national IDP total above 8,000,000 |
| Prediction | very likely (roughly 80-95%) |
| Issue date | 2026-07-18 |
| Data cutoff | 2026-07-18 |
| Horizon (days) | 256 |
| Resolution date | 2027-03-31 |
| Resolution source | IOM Displacement Tracking Matrix, Sudan displacement and return snapshots |
| Status | active |
| Epistemic class | forecast |
| Evidence status | reported |
| Model | trend-continuation-v1 v1.0 |
| Hindcast | No |
Machine-readable: /forecasts/data.json