Plausible range — this is not a claim of precision beyond what the underlying method supports.
- Issued
- Data cutoff
- Horizon
- 168 days
- Epistemic class
- Forecast (modeled, not observed)
- Evidence status
- provisional
How this resolves
Superseded before resolution, so this record will not be scored. Its replacement, fc-2026-07-18-sudan-idp-threshold, restates the same subject as a measurable threshold with an explicit resolution source.
Resolution source: IOM Displacement Tracking Matrix, Sudan displacement and return snapshots
Assumptions
- The observed Jan 2025-Mar 2026 decline rate continues at a broadly similar pace.
- No major new offensive or mass-casualty event displaces a large new population.
- No large-scale simultaneous return event (e.g. a comprehensive ceasefire) accelerates the decline sharply beyond trend.
What would make this wrong
- A major new offensive in Darfur, Kordofan, or elsewhere displacing a large population.
- A comprehensive ceasefire or peace process enabling faster-than-trend returns.
- Publication of an IOM DTM round showing a materially different trajectory than assumed here.
Version history
- Superseded by Sudan IDP count stays above 8 million in IOM DTM's next published round (issued July 18, 2026).
Revision note: Superseded on 18 July 2026 by fc-2026-07-18-sudan-idp-threshold, which restates the same subject as a measurable threshold (IDPs above 8 million at the next DTM round) with explicit resolution criteria and a named resolution source. The original interval forecast above is preserved exactly as issued — an issued forecast is never edited or deleted.
Methodology
Takes the recent pace of change in an official series and keeps it going, assuming nothing dramatic happens. Simple, transparent, and easy to check — but it will miss sudden shocks.
Uncertainty: A plausible-range bracket, widened for longer horizons, reflecting the compounding risk that the constant-rate assumption breaks down. Not a statistical confidence interval — labeled as plausible-range throughout.
Validation: Compared against a no-change naive baseline on historical published points where two or more comparable rounds exist. See /forecast-track-record for the hindcast demonstrations.
Full model card: Trend continuation (rule-based) v1.0.
Sources
| Source | Type | Link |
|---|---|---|
| IOM — Displacement Tracking Matrix, Sudan | Intergovernmental | dtm.iom.int/sudan |
All forecast fields (accessible table)
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Forecast ID | fc-sudan-idp-2026-12 |
| Target variable | Sudan internally displaced persons (IOM DTM basis) |
| Target event | — |
| Prediction | 6,500,000–8,500,000 |
| Issue date | 2026-07-17 |
| Data cutoff | 2026-03-31 |
| Horizon (days) | 168 |
| Resolution date | — |
| Resolution source | IOM Displacement Tracking Matrix, Sudan displacement and return snapshots |
| Status | superseded |
| Epistemic class | forecast |
| Evidence status | provisional |
| Model | trend-continuation-v1 v1.0 |
| Hindcast | No |
Machine-readable: /forecasts/data.json