{ "name": "Warconomy — human cost of conflict", "asOf": "2026-06-05", "page": "https://warconomy.com/human-cost", "note": "Structured human-cost records: fatalities, injuries, and displacement, directly cited to primary humanitarian-reporting organizations (OHCHR, UNHCR, IOM and equivalents). Ranges and explicit 'unknown'/'no-data' states are shown rather than collapsed to zero or a false single number. Not a Warconomy-computed estimate. See docs/human-cost-data-model.md and docs/visual-editorial-policy.md.", "records": [ { "id": "hc-russia-ukraine-2026h1", "subjectType": "conflict", "subjectId": "russia-ukraine", "subjectName": "Russia–Ukraine war", "geography": "Ukraine — areas the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine (HRMMU) could access and independently verify; excludes incidents HRMMU could not verify, including much of the front line and occupied territory during active hostilities.", "periodStart": "2022-02-24", "periodEnd": null, "fatalitiesTotal": null, "fatalitiesCivilian": { "status": "minimum", "value": 16431, "evidenceStatus": "verified", "sourceId": "ohchr-hrmmu-ukraine", "coverageNote": "OHCHR/HRMMU-verified civilian deaths only (a documented floor, not a total), cumulative since 24 February 2022 through 30 June 2026. OHCHR has repeatedly stated it considers the actual civilian death toll considerably higher than what HRMMU has been able to verify, given verification lag and limited access to areas of active hostilities and Russian-occupied territory." }, "fatalitiesMilitary": { "status": "no-data", "evidenceStatus": "unknown", "coverageNote": "Warconomy does not currently cite an independently-verified public figure for military fatalities on either side. Both belligerents' officially stated figures are contested and are intentionally not reported here rather than presented as settled; see backlog item 164 to add them as explicitly-labeled claims." }, "childFatalities": { "status": "minimum", "value": 803, "evidenceStatus": "verified", "sourceId": "ohchr-hrmmu-ukraine", "coverageNote": "A subset already included within fatalitiesCivilian, not additional to it." }, "injured": { "status": "minimum", "value": 48613, "evidenceStatus": "verified", "sourceId": "ohchr-hrmmu-ukraine", "coverageNote": "OHCHR/HRMMU-verified civilian injuries only (a documented floor); does not cover military injuries, which OHCHR does not track." }, "missing": { "status": "unknown", "evidenceStatus": "unknown", "coverageNote": "Not reported in the OHCHR civilian-casualty series cited here." }, "displacedInternally": { "status": "range", "min": 3700000, "max": 3900000, "evidenceStatus": "provisional", "sourceId": "iom-dtm-ukraine", "coverageNote": "IOM Displacement Tracking Matrix General Population Survey rounds 22 (fieldwork through December 2025) and 23 (January-March 2026) — a survey-based estimate, not a registration count. The two rounds are separate fieldwork periods, not same-day snapshots, which is why this is shown as a range rather than a single figure." }, "refugees": { "status": "range", "min": 5200000, "max": 5900000, "evidenceStatus": "reported", "sourceId": "unhcr-ukraine-portal", "coverageNote": "UNHCR-recorded/registered refugees from Ukraine worldwide, aggregated across snapshots reported via UNHCR's operational data portal between December 2025 and April 2026. This is a registration-based count, not a real-time headcount, and moves between snapshots as registrations are reconciled or people return. Warconomy could not directly re-verify a single current figure against the live portal for this update (a JavaScript dashboard, not a static page) — the band above is a documented data need pending direct reconfirmation; see /data-needs." }, "detained": { "status": "no-data", "evidenceStatus": "unknown", "coverageNote": "No Tier A source currently cited by Warconomy publishes a verifiable detained/prisoner-of-war total for this conflict." }, "foodInsecurity": null, "healthSystemImpact": null, "damagedHousing": null, "damagedSchools": null, "damagedHospitals": null, "confidence": "medium", "methodology": "Fatality and injury figures are OHCHR/HRMMU-verified civilian casualties from its monthly Protection of Civilians reporting (a documented, individually-verified incident count — a floor, not a total). Displacement figures combine a UNHCR-recorded refugee band and an IOM DTM survey-based IDP estimate; both are approximate and drawn from more than one snapshot/survey round rather than a single verified point figure. Overall record confidence is 'medium' to reflect the displacement bands' approximate nature, even though the individual OHCHR fatality/injury figures carry 'confirmed' verification.", "asOf": "2026-06-30", "lastReviewed": "2026-07-17", "dataMode": "live", "limitations": [ "OHCHR's verified civilian casualty figures are a documented-incident floor, not a total count; OHCHR states the real toll is considerably higher, particularly in areas of active hostilities and occupied territory.", "Military fatalities on either side are not reported here — no independently-verified public figure is currently cited by Warconomy.", "Refugee and IDP figures are approximate bands drawn from multiple 2025-2026 snapshots/survey rounds, not a single verified point-in-time count — treat as directional, not precise to the person.", "Figures cover the period since 24 February 2022 through the stated as-of date and will continue to rise while the conflict continues; this is not a final toll.", "Coverage of other conflicts under this data model (Gaza, Sudan, DRC, Sahel) remains a documented gap — see docs/marathon-backlog.md — and should not be read as those conflicts having a lower human cost." ], "sources": [ { "id": "ohchr-hrmmu-ukraine", "title": "OHCHR — UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine, Protection of Civilians reporting", "publisher": "Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR)", "url": "https://ukraine.ohchr.org/en/reports/protection-of-civilians", "type": "intergovernmental", "publishedDate": "2026-07-14", "accessedDate": "2026-07-17", "cadence": "monthly", "tags": [ "human cost", "casualties", "Ukraine", "civilians", "tier-a" ], "note": "Monthly Protection of Civilians reporting from the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine (HRMMU). Figures are OHCHR-verified civilian casualties, not a total count — OHCHR has repeatedly stated it considers the actual toll considerably higher than what it has been able to verify, given verification lag and limited access to areas of active hostilities and occupied territory. Manually checked against the published report per update; not fetched at runtime and not real-time." }, { "id": "unhcr-ukraine-portal", "title": "UNHCR — Ukraine Refugee Situation Operational Data Portal", "publisher": "United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR)", "url": "https://data.unhcr.org/en/situations/ukraine", "type": "intergovernmental", "accessedDate": "2026-07-17", "cadence": "monthly", "tags": [ "human cost", "displacement", "refugees", "Ukraine", "tier-a" ], "note": "UNHCR's live operational data portal for refugees from Ukraine, aggregated from government registration data across host countries. Totals are recorded/registered counts, not a real-time headcount, and can move between snapshots as registrations are reconciled or people return; recent snapshots (Dec 2025-Apr 2026) put the total in the high-5-million range globally with the great majority in Europe. Not fetched at runtime; this repo cites the portal but does not scrape it, and treats the exact current figure as a manual-confirmation data need (see /data-needs) pending a directly re-verifiable snapshot." }, { "id": "iom-dtm-ukraine", "title": "IOM — Displacement Tracking Matrix, Ukraine Internal Displacement Report", "publisher": "International Organization for Migration (IOM)", "url": "https://dtm.iom.int/ukraine", "type": "intergovernmental", "accessedDate": "2026-07-17", "cadence": "unknown", "tags": [ "human cost", "displacement", "IDPs", "Ukraine", "tier-a" ], "note": "IOM's General Population Survey (GPS) rounds produce a survey-based estimate of internally displaced people in Ukraine, not a registration count. Round 22 (fieldwork through Dec 2025) and Round 23 (Jan-Mar 2026) estimated a range of roughly 3.7-3.9 million IDPs; the two rounds are not directly comparable snapshots of the same day, and IOM's own methodology note treats this as a survey estimate, not a census. Not fetched at runtime." } ] }, { "id": "hc-israel-gaza-strip-2026", "subjectType": "conflict", "subjectId": "israel-gaza", "subjectName": "Israel–Gaza war", "geography": "Gaza Strip", "periodStart": "2023-10-07", "periodEnd": null, "fatalitiesTotal": { "status": "minimum", "value": 58573, "evidenceStatus": "reported", "sourceId": "ochaopt", "coverageNote": "Ministry of Health (Gaza)-reported cumulative Palestinians killed, 7 October 2023 through 16 July 2025 (OCHA oPt Humanitarian Situation Update #306) — the most recent figure this record could directly confirm against a primary OCHA report during this research pass. OCHA states MoH casualty figures are 'yet-to-be-verified by the UN' and attributed to their source (MoH and Israeli authorities). This figure is stale relative to mid-2026 reporting — see limitations.", "competingEstimates": [ { "value": "77,000-109,000 (adjusted estimate; midpoint approx. 93,000), as of ~May 2025", "sourceId": "washington-institute-gaza-toll-assessment", "note": "A demographically-adjusted estimate for possible undercounting in the MoH tally — a different method (statistical modeling) than MoH's direct identified-casualty count, so not directly comparable or averaged with the figure above." } ] }, "fatalitiesCivilian": null, "fatalitiesMilitary": { "status": "no-data", "evidenceStatus": "unknown", "coverageNote": "No Tier A source currently cited by Warconomy publishes a militant/combatant casualty breakdown independently verified from MoH's overall count. Israeli military statements on militant losses are a party claim and are not reported here as a settled figure." }, "childFatalities": null, "injured": { "status": "minimum", "value": 139607, "evidenceStatus": "reported", "sourceId": "ochaopt", "coverageNote": "Ministry of Health (Gaza)-reported cumulative injuries, 7 October 2023 through 16 July 2025 (OCHA oPt Humanitarian Situation Update #306) — same staleness caveat as fatalitiesTotal." }, "missing": null, "displacedInternally": { "status": "range", "min": 1900000, "max": 2100000, "evidenceStatus": "reported", "sourceId": "ochaopt", "coverageNote": "OCHA (10 July 2026 situation report) states 'nearly all of Gaza's current population of 2.1 million people has been displaced' at least once since October 2023 — a qualitative characterization translated here into an approximate bound (not a precise headcount) given Gaza's estimated total population. Displacement is often repeated (people displaced multiple times), so this describes population affected, not a single point-in-time count." }, "refugees": null, "detained": null, "foodInsecurity": null, "healthSystemImpact": null, "damagedHousing": null, "damagedSchools": null, "damagedHospitals": null, "confidence": "low", "methodology": "Fatality/injury figures are Ministry of Health (Gaza)-reported and relayed via OCHA oPt situation reporting, which OCHA itself labels 'yet-to-be-verified by the UN.' This record could not directly confirm a whole-war cumulative figure more recent than 16 July 2025 during this research pass; OCHA's more frequent mid-2026 updates report casualties since the 10 October 2025 ceasefire specifically (a materially different, shorter period — roughly 1,050-1,110 killed and 3,400+ injured since the ceasefire alone as of early-to-mid July 2026), which is not the same figure as the whole-war cumulative above and is not added to it. Overall confidence is 'low' to reflect both the reporting-verification caveat and the confirmed staleness of the headline cumulative figure.", "asOf": "2025-07-16", "lastReviewed": "2026-07-17", "dataMode": "live", "limitations": [ "The whole-war cumulative casualty figures here (58,573 killed / 139,607 injured) are dated 16 July 2025 and are understood to be stale relative to mid-2026 — this is recorded as a known staleness gap, not an invented current total.", "OCHA explicitly labels MoH-sourced casualty figures as 'yet-to-be-verified by the UN' and attributed to their source; they are not an independently-confirmed count.", "MoH figures do not consistently separate civilian from combatant deaths; this record does not attempt to infer a breakdown MoH itself does not publish.", "Military/combatant fatalities are not reported here — no independently-verified public figure is currently cited by Warconomy.", "Displacement is shown as an approximate population-affected bound, not a precise or single point-in-time headcount.", "This record covers the Gaza Strip only — see the separate West Bank record for that geography, which is not aggregated with these figures because the two describe materially different conflict dynamics and reporting chains." ], "sources": [ { "id": "ochaopt", "title": "UN OCHA — Occupied Palestinian Territory, humanitarian situation reporting", "publisher": "UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA)", "url": "https://www.ochaopt.org/", "type": "intergovernmental", "accessedDate": "2026-07-17", "cadence": "monthly", "tags": [ "human cost", "casualties", "displacement", "Gaza", "West Bank", "tier-a" ], "note": "OCHA's oPt situation reports and impact snapshots relay casualty figures from Gaza's Ministry of Health and, for the West Bank, OCHA's own protection monitoring. OCHA states explicitly that MoH figures are 'yet-to-be-verified by the UN' and attributed to their source (MoH and Israeli authorities); OCHA does not independently verify the cumulative Gaza toll. Manually checked per update; not fetched at runtime and not real-time." }, { "id": "washington-institute-gaza-toll-assessment", "title": "Washington Institute — Assessing the Gaza Death Toll After Eighteen Months of War", "publisher": "The Washington Institute for Near East Policy", "url": "https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/assessing-gaza-death-toll-after-eighteen-months-war", "type": "academic", "accessedDate": "2026-07-17", "cadence": "unknown", "tags": [ "human cost", "casualties", "Gaza", "tier-b", "competing-estimate" ], "note": "An independent policy-analysis assessment (as of roughly May 2025) offering a demographically-adjusted estimate range for total Gaza deaths, distinct in method from the Ministry of Health's direct identified-casualty count. Cited here only as a competing estimate alongside the MoH/OCHA figure, not averaged with it — the two measure different things (a direct count vs. a modeled adjustment for undercounting)." } ] }, { "id": "hc-israel-westbank-2026", "subjectType": "conflict", "subjectId": "israel-gaza", "subjectName": "Israel–Gaza war", "geography": "West Bank, including East Jerusalem", "periodStart": "2023-10-07", "periodEnd": null, "fatalitiesTotal": null, "fatalitiesCivilian": { "status": "exact", "value": 1109, "evidenceStatus": "reported", "sourceId": "ochaopt", "coverageNote": "OCHA-documented Palestinians killed by Israeli forces or settlers in the West Bank, 7 October 2023 through 4 July 2026 (OCHA oPt Humanitarian Situation Report, 3 July 2026 edition) — distinct from Gaza Strip figures above; tracked through OCHA's own protection monitoring rather than relayed from a party ministry." }, "fatalitiesMilitary": null, "childFatalities": { "status": "exact", "value": 243, "evidenceStatus": "reported", "sourceId": "ochaopt", "coverageNote": "A subset already included within fatalitiesCivilian, not additional to it." }, "injured": null, "missing": null, "displacedInternally": { "status": "minimum", "value": 3200, "evidenceStatus": "reported", "sourceId": "ochaopt", "coverageNote": "Over 3,200 Palestinians displaced across the West Bank in 2026 (year-to-date at report date) by settler attacks and demolitions for lack of Israeli-issued building permits — an average of 17 people per day, double the daily rate over the preceding three years, per OCHA." }, "refugees": null, "detained": null, "foodInsecurity": null, "healthSystemImpact": null, "damagedHousing": null, "damagedSchools": null, "damagedHospitals": null, "confidence": "medium", "methodology": "Casualty and displacement figures for the West Bank (including East Jerusalem) are drawn from OCHA's own protection monitoring, distinct from Gaza Strip figures (which relay Ministry of Health statements). Reported separately from the Gaza Strip record because the two geographies have materially different conflict dynamics (occupation-related settler violence and demolitions vs. the Gaza war) and reporting chains.", "asOf": "2026-07-04", "lastReviewed": "2026-07-17", "dataMode": "live", "limitations": [ "Figures cover the period since 7 October 2023 through the stated as-of date and will continue to change; not a final toll.", "This record covers the West Bank (including East Jerusalem) only — see the separate Gaza Strip record for that geography.", "Displacement figure is year-to-date 2026 only, not cumulative since 2023 — a different period than the fatality figures in this same record." ], "sources": [ { "id": "ochaopt", "title": "UN OCHA — Occupied Palestinian Territory, humanitarian situation reporting", "publisher": "UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA)", "url": "https://www.ochaopt.org/", "type": "intergovernmental", "accessedDate": "2026-07-17", "cadence": "monthly", "tags": [ "human cost", "casualties", "displacement", "Gaza", "West Bank", "tier-a" ], "note": "OCHA's oPt situation reports and impact snapshots relay casualty figures from Gaza's Ministry of Health and, for the West Bank, OCHA's own protection monitoring. OCHA states explicitly that MoH figures are 'yet-to-be-verified by the UN' and attributed to their source (MoH and Israeli authorities); OCHA does not independently verify the cumulative Gaza toll. Manually checked per update; not fetched at runtime and not real-time." } ] }, { "id": "hc-sudan-2026", "subjectType": "conflict", "subjectId": "sudan", "subjectName": "Sudan civil war", "geography": "Sudan (nationwide); some contested areas access-constrained for direct verification", "periodStart": "2023-04-15", "periodEnd": null, "fatalitiesTotal": { "status": "no-data", "evidenceStatus": "unknown", "coverageNote": "No credible, independently-verified, methodologically-reconciled total death toll exists for this conflict as of this research pass. Widely-circulated figures (often cited in the tens of thousands) trace to varied and materially different methodologies (event-tracking extrapolations, rough estimates) that this record could not verify against a primary source — recorded honestly as a gap rather than repeating an unreconciled figure as if it were settled." }, "fatalitiesCivilian": null, "fatalitiesMilitary": null, "childFatalities": null, "injured": null, "missing": null, "displacedInternally": { "status": "range", "min": 8500000, "max": 9000000, "evidenceStatus": "reported", "sourceId": "iom-dtm-sudan", "coverageNote": "IOM DTM reported displacement 'close to nine million' as of end March 2026, down from an 11.5 million peak in January 2025 as some displaced people returned to contested or unstable areas (a return is not necessarily a durable or safe one). A tracking-based estimate, not a registration count." }, "refugees": { "status": "minimum", "value": 2800000, "evidenceStatus": "reported", "sourceId": "unhcr-sudan-situation", "coverageNote": "UNHCR reported over 2.8 million Sudanese refugees recorded across seven neighbouring countries (Chad, Egypt, South Sudan, Libya, CAR, Ethiopia, Uganda) at the start of 2026 — nearly double the count at the crisis's start and roughly triple the pre-war figure. Egypt alone hosts an estimated 1.4 million." }, "detained": null, "foodInsecurity": { "status": "exact", "value": 19500000, "evidenceStatus": "corroborated", "sourceId": "ipc-sudan", "coverageNote": "IPC classification: roughly 19.5 million people (about two in five in Sudan) in Phase 3+ (Crisis or worse), including over 5 million in Phase 4 (Emergency) and approximately 135,000 in Phase 5 (Catastrophic) across hotspots in Darfur and South Kordofan — a food-security phase classification jointly produced by FAO/WFP/UNICEF and partners, not a single agency's own figure, hence 'corroborated' rather than 'reported.'" }, "healthSystemImpact": null, "damagedHousing": null, "damagedSchools": null, "damagedHospitals": null, "confidence": "medium", "methodology": "Displacement figures combine IOM DTM's Sudan tracking (IDPs) and UNHCR's regional refugee response reporting; food-security status is the IPC's jointly-produced technical classification. No casualty figure is reported because no source this record could verify offers a reconciled, credible total. Overall confidence is 'medium': the displacement/food-security figures are well-sourced and current, but the complete absence of verifiable casualty data is a major limitation of the record as a whole.", "asOf": "2026-03-31", "lastReviewed": "2026-07-17", "dataMode": "live", "limitations": [ "No credible total death toll is reported — this is an honest gap, not an oversight; see fatalitiesTotal's coverageNote.", "Civilian-vs-military, injured, missing, and detained figures are all gaps for this conflict as of this research pass.", "Displacement figures are IOM DTM survey/tracking estimates, not a registration count, and 'returns' from a displacement peak do not necessarily indicate durable or safe conditions.", "Access constraints in active-conflict areas (parts of Darfur, Kordofan) limit direct verification of any figure for those specific areas.", "Figures span slightly different as-of dates (IDPs: end March 2026; refugees: start of 2026; food security: current at access) because each comes from a different organization's own publication cadence — not a single synchronized snapshot." ], "sources": [ { "id": "iom-dtm-sudan", "title": "IOM — Displacement Tracking Matrix, Sudan", "publisher": "International Organization for Migration (IOM)", "url": "https://dtm.iom.int/sudan", "type": "intergovernmental", "accessedDate": "2026-07-17", "cadence": "monthly", "tags": [ "human cost", "displacement", "IDPs", "Sudan", "tier-a" ], "note": "IOM DTM tracks internal displacement in Sudan; figures moved from roughly 11.5 million at the conflict's January 2025 peak to below 10 million and were reported at close to 9 million as of end March 2026 as some displaced people returned to contested or unstable areas. A survey/tracking-based estimate, not a registration count. Not fetched at runtime." }, { "id": "unhcr-sudan-situation", "title": "UNHCR — Sudan Situation Regional Refugee Response", "publisher": "United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR)", "url": "https://data.unhcr.org/en/situations/sudansituation", "type": "intergovernmental", "accessedDate": "2026-07-17", "cadence": "monthly", "tags": [ "human cost", "displacement", "refugees", "Sudan", "tier-a" ], "note": "UNHCR's regional response plan for Sudanese refugees across seven neighbouring countries (Chad, Egypt, South Sudan, Libya, CAR, Ethiopia, Uganda). Reported over 2.8 million Sudanese refugees recorded at the start of 2026, with Egypt alone hosting roughly 1.4 million. A registration/estimate-based count aggregated across host countries with varying registration practices. Not fetched at runtime." }, { "id": "ipc-sudan", "title": "IPC — Integrated Food Security Phase Classification, Sudan", "publisher": "IPC Global Partnership (FAO, WFP, UNICEF and partners)", "url": "https://www.ipcinfo.org/ipc-country-analysis/details-map/en/c/1159787/", "type": "intergovernmental", "accessedDate": "2026-07-17", "cadence": "unknown", "tags": [ "human cost", "food insecurity", "famine", "Sudan", "tier-a" ], "note": "The IPC's technical food-security classification for Sudan. Analysis current at access reported roughly 19.5 million people (about two in five) in IPC Phase 3+ (Crisis or worse), including over 5 million in Phase 4 (Emergency) and approximately 135,000 in Phase 5 (Catastrophic) across hotspots in Darfur and South Kordofan. A phase classification, not a single casualty or mortality figure; famine (Phase 5 at area level) has been formally declared in specific localities in prior IPC rounds, not sitewide. Not fetched at runtime." } ] } ] }