What a model card is forThis page exists so any Warconomy forecast produced by this model can be audited: what it assumes, where it breaks, how its uncertainty is built, and what simple baseline it must beat to be worth running. Forecasts are decision-support, not advice.
At a glance
| Model ID | external-forecast-tracking-v1 |
|---|---|
| Version | 1.0 |
| Method family | analyst override |
| Intended use | Track whether a named institution's own published forecast for a defined variable is revised in a stated direction by its next scheduled release, and whether the observed outcome falls inside its stated range. |
| Update cadence | monthly |
| Analyst judgment | Yes — a human sets or adjusts key parameters (see below) |
| Forecasts using it | 2 |
Assumptions
- The institution publishes on its announced schedule.
- Its published forecast reflects information available up to its own stated cutoff — so evidence emerging after that cutoff is genuine new information about the likely revision direction.
Known weaknesses and failure conditions
- Predicting a forecaster's revision is not the same as predicting the underlying variable, and must never be presented as such.
- Institutions occasionally change methodology between releases, which can move a published number for reasons unrelated to the world changing.
- Highly sensitive to events landing in the gap between the institution's cutoff and its publication date.
How uncertainty is built
Direction-of-revision expressed as a coarse probability band; any accompanying level range is a plausible-range bracket around the institution's own published central value, never Warconomy's independent price model.
Validation and baseline comparison
Resolved directly against the institution's next published release. Baseline: 'no revision' (assume the institution repeats its prior figure).
Model change history
| Version | Change |
|---|---|
| 1.0 | Initial production release of this model card, issued with Warconomy's first forecast portfolio. |
Model versions are immutable. A material methodology change produces a new version, and forecasts issued under the old version keep pointing at the version that produced them.
Forecasts produced by this model
Related
All forecasting methods · Responsible forecasting policy · Active forecasts · Track record