- Issued
- Data cutoff
- Horizon
- 18 days
- Resolves by
- Epistemic class
- Forecast (modeled, not observed)
- Evidence status
- verified
How this resolves
Resolves TRUE if the July 2026 STEO's 2026 annual Brent average is below $95.39/b.
Resolution source: EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, July 2026 edition
Assumptions
- Cutoff-date information only: the U.S.-Iran memorandum was signed 18 June 2026 and tanker traffic through Hormuz was reported to have jumped immediately afterward.
- A supply-restrictive premium built into the June STEO would unwind once the strait reopened.
Leading indicators to watch
- Daily Hormuz transit counts after 18 June 2026
What would make this wrong
- The memorandum collapsing before the July STEO cutoff of 1 July 2026.
Naive baseline comparison
| Baseline | No-revision naive baseline |
|---|---|
| Baseline said | The July STEO repeats the June figure of $95.39/b (no revision). |
| Baseline outcome | Baseline was wrong |
What actually happened
The July 2026 STEO (released 7 July 2026) cut the 2026 annual Brent average to $81.91/b from $95.39/b — a downward revision of about $13.48/b, explicitly attributed by the EIA to increased oil flows through the reopened strait.
| Event occurred | Yes |
|---|---|
| Directionally correct | Yes |
| Brier score | 0.0225 (lower is better; 0.25 = a coin flip) |
| Scored |
The prediction above is preserved exactly as issued — this outcome sits alongside it and never replaces it.
Methodology
Watches whether a body like the EIA will move its own published forecast up or down at its next release, based on what has happened since it last locked its data.
Uncertainty: Direction-of-revision expressed as a coarse probability band; any accompanying level range is a plausible-range bracket around the institution's own published central value, never Warconomy's independent price model.
Validation: Resolved directly against the institution's next published release. Baseline: 'no revision' (assume the institution repeats its prior figure).
Full model card: External institutional forecast tracking v1.0.
Sources
| Source | Type | Link |
|---|---|---|
| EIA — Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) | Official | www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/ |
All forecast fields (accessible table)
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Forecast ID | hc-2026-02-eia-brent-june-revision |
| Target variable | The EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook's published 2026 annual Brent forecast |
| Target event | The July 2026 STEO revises its 2026 annual Brent forecast DOWNWARD from the June 2026 STEO figure of $95.39/b |
| Prediction | very likely (roughly 80-95%) |
| Issue date | 2026-06-19 |
| Data cutoff | 2026-06-19 |
| Horizon (days) | 18 |
| Resolution date | 2026-07-07 |
| Resolution source | EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, July 2026 edition |
| Status | resolved |
| Epistemic class | forecast |
| Evidence status | verified |
| Model | external-forecast-tracking-v1 v1.0 |
| Hindcast | Yes — not a live prediction |
Machine-readable: /forecasts/data.json