Warconomy derives each forecast's lifecycle status from its own immutable fields rather than tracking it by hand: a record is active, nearing resolution, expired, or one of the editorial states (superseded, invalidated, withdrawn, unresolvable, resolved). Thresholds are domain-specific, because an EIA monthly release and a roughly-annual World Bank assessment cannot share one deadline. Alongside that, 6 operational items are currently open across 4 queues — 0 blocking, 0 urgent, 6 normal. Only blocking items stop a release; ordinary editorial work is surfaced without holding up publication.
- Lifecycle is derived, not hand-maintained — an expired forecast leaves active listings automatically but keeps its permanent URL.
- Editorial statuses (invalidated, withdrawn, unresolvable) are never inferred from dates; they require a human judgment and a public reason.
- Weak-source dependencies are tracked as standing work, not hidden.
- Every open forecast has a pre-committed resolution date, deciding source and scoring method — fixed before the outcome is known.
Lifecycle status of every record
Derived lifecycle for each forecast in the permanent archive, with the rule that produced it.
| Forecast | Stored | Derived | Days to resolution | Publicly active |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EU adopts a 21st Russia sanctions package by 30 September 2026 | active | active | 117 | Yes |
| Suez transit volumes remain far below the pre-2024 baseline through 2026 | active | active | 240 | Yes |
| EIA revises its 4Q2026 Brent forecast upward in the August 2026 STEO | active | active | 87 | Yes |
| Sudan IDP count stays above 8 million in IOM DTM's next published round | active | active | 299 | Yes |
| OHCHR reports at least one month in H2 2026 above the H1 2026 monthly average | active | active | 255 | Yes |
| The next Ukraine RDNA raises the ten-year reconstruction estimate above $588 billion | active | active | 574 | Yes |
| Strait of Hormuz daily transits stay below pre-crisis levels through October 2026 | superseded | superseded | — | No |
| Strait of Hormuz daily transits stay below the PortWatch peacetime baseline through October 2026 | active | active | 178 | Yes |
| Sudan IDPs by December 2026 (superseded) | superseded | superseded | — | No |
| Hindcast: would a naive 'no revision' rule have predicted the EIA's July 2026 Brent cut? | resolved | resolved | — | No |
| Hindcast: would trend continuation have beaten 'no change' on Sudan's IDP total? | resolved | resolved | — | No |
Stored and derived agree for every record. A disagreement would appear in the queues below as an item to resolve, not be silently overwritten in either direction.
Open operational work
No blocking issues. The 6 open items below are ordinary pending work — source hardening, corroboration, and review cadence — and are safe to carry while published.
normal
normal operational items.
| Forecast / model | Queue | Problem | Required action | Safe to publish |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suez transit volumes remain far below the pre-2024 baseline through 2026 | weak source replacement | Depends on 1 weak/provisional source(s): logistics-trade-press-redsea. | Look for a stronger institutional source for the same metric. Weak sources may inform direction but can never resolve a forecast. | Yes |
| Suez transit volumes remain far below the pre-2024 baseline through 2026 | resolution definition risk | Resolution source names a fallback or an unnamed equivalent, so the deciding measure may not be fixed. | Before resolution, confirm which specific source and metric will decide it, and record that choice publicly. | Yes |
| EIA revises its 4Q2026 Brent forecast upward in the August 2026 STEO | weak source replacement | Depends on 1 weak/provisional source(s): hormuz-crisis-tracking. | Look for a stronger institutional source for the same metric. Weak sources may inform direction but can never resolve a forecast. | Yes |
| EIA revises its 4Q2026 Brent forecast upward in the August 2026 STEO | provisional source corroboration | Evidence status is provisional — the underlying reporting is thin, fast-moving, or single-sourced. | Seek independent corroboration. If a second credible source confirms, consider a superseding forecast at a higher evidence status. | Yes |
| Strait of Hormuz daily transits stay below the PortWatch peacetime baseline through October 2026 | weak source replacement | Depends on 1 weak/provisional source(s): hormuz-crisis-tracking. | Look for a stronger institutional source for the same metric. Weak sources may inform direction but can never resolve a forecast. | Yes |
| Trend continuation (rule-based) | model review due | Model card has been in production 493 days without a documented review. | Re-read the model card's assumptions and weaknesses against how its forecasts have actually performed; bump the model version if anything changed. | Yes |
Resolution readiness
For each open forecast, the deciding source and scoring rule were fixed at issue time. These dates are computed from the record, so the transition points cannot drift after the fact.
When each open forecast becomes nearing-resolution, expired, and due for an unresolvable review.
| Forecast | Deciding source | Method | Nearing | Expires | Unresolvable review |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EU adopts a 21st Russia sanctions package by 30 September 2026 | eu-council-sanctions, ec-circumvention-20th | binary | August 31, 2026 | October 30, 2026 | January 28, 2027 |
| Suez transit volumes remain far below the pre-2024 baseline through 2026 | suez-canal-authority, sca-chairman-statement-2026, imf-portwatch-chokepoints, imf-portwatch-red-sea | threshold | December 17, 2026 | March 17, 2027 | July 30, 2027 |
| EIA revises its 4Q2026 Brent forecast upward in the August 2026 STEO | eia-steo | revision | August 10, 2026 | September 14, 2026 | October 30, 2026 |
| Sudan IDP count stays above 8 million in IOM DTM's next published round | iom-dtm-sudan | threshold | January 30, 2027 | June 29, 2027 | December 26, 2027 |
| OHCHR reports at least one month in H2 2026 above the H1 2026 monthly average | ohchr-hrmmu-ukraine | threshold | January 1, 2027 | April 1, 2027 | August 14, 2027 |
| The next Ukraine RDNA raises the ten-year reconstruction estimate above $588 billion | worldbank-rdna5, worldbank | threshold | October 2, 2027 | June 28, 2028 | December 30, 2028 |
| Strait of Hormuz daily transits stay below the PortWatch peacetime baseline through October 2026 | imf-portwatch-chokepoints, eia-steo | threshold | October 16, 2026 | January 14, 2027 | May 29, 2027 |
If a source publishes late, the forecast stays nearing-resolution through its domain grace period, then enters the overdue queue — it is never scored against a substitute measure to meet a deadline. If the metric’s definition changes incompatibly, the engine refuses to score and the record becomes unresolvable with a public reason.
Machine-readable
/forecasts/operations/data.json — lifecycle and queues · /forecasts/readiness/data.json — readiness, dry-run results and source snapshots