{
  "name": "Warconomy — forecast operations",
  "asOf": "2026-06-05",
  "note": "Deterministic operational queues derived from the committed forecast archive. Every field here is already public on the forecast pages — no internal-only editorial notes are exposed. Severity 'blocking' fails the release; lower severities are ordinary pending work and do not.",
  "summary": {
    "total": 6,
    "byQueue": {
      "weak-source-replacement": 3,
      "resolution-definition-risk": 1,
      "provisional-source-corroboration": 1,
      "model-review-due": 1
    },
    "bySeverity": {
      "blocking": 0,
      "urgent": 0,
      "normal": 6,
      "informational": 0
    },
    "releaseBlocked": false,
    "unsafeToPublish": 0
  },
  "lifecycle": [
    {
      "forecastId": "fc-2026-07-18-eu-21st-package",
      "storedStatus": "active",
      "derivedStatus": "active",
      "conflict": false,
      "reason": "Issued, unresolved, and 117 days from its resolution date — outside the 30-day sanctions nearing window.",
      "daysToResolution": 117,
      "publiclyActive": true,
      "resolutionDataOverdue": false
    },
    {
      "forecastId": "fc-2026-07-18-suez-transits-depressed",
      "storedStatus": "active",
      "derivedStatus": "active",
      "conflict": false,
      "reason": "Issued, unresolved, and 240 days from its resolution date — outside the 45-day shipping nearing window.",
      "daysToResolution": 240,
      "publiclyActive": true,
      "resolutionDataOverdue": false
    },
    {
      "forecastId": "fc-2026-07-18-eia-brent-revision",
      "storedStatus": "active",
      "derivedStatus": "active",
      "conflict": false,
      "reason": "Issued, unresolved, and 87 days from its resolution date — outside the 21-day energy nearing window.",
      "daysToResolution": 87,
      "publiclyActive": true,
      "resolutionDataOverdue": false
    },
    {
      "forecastId": "fc-2026-07-18-sudan-idp-threshold",
      "storedStatus": "active",
      "derivedStatus": "active",
      "conflict": false,
      "reason": "Issued, unresolved, and 299 days from its resolution date — outside the 60-day humanitarian nearing window.",
      "daysToResolution": 299,
      "publiclyActive": true,
      "resolutionDataOverdue": false
    },
    {
      "forecastId": "fc-2026-07-18-ukraine-civilian-casualty-trend",
      "storedStatus": "active",
      "derivedStatus": "active",
      "conflict": false,
      "reason": "Issued, unresolved, and 255 days from its resolution date — outside the 45-day conflict nearing window.",
      "daysToResolution": 255,
      "publiclyActive": true,
      "resolutionDataOverdue": false
    },
    {
      "forecastId": "fc-2026-07-18-ukraine-reconstruction-estimate",
      "storedStatus": "active",
      "derivedStatus": "active",
      "conflict": false,
      "reason": "Issued, unresolved, and 574 days from its resolution date — outside the 90-day macro nearing window.",
      "daysToResolution": 574,
      "publiclyActive": true,
      "resolutionDataOverdue": false
    },
    {
      "forecastId": "fc-2026-07-18-hormuz-transits-below-prewar",
      "storedStatus": "superseded",
      "derivedStatus": "superseded",
      "conflict": false,
      "reason": "Superseded by fc-2026-07-18b-hormuz-transits-portwatch — preserved permanently at its own URL.",
      "daysToResolution": 178,
      "publiclyActive": false,
      "resolutionDataOverdue": false
    },
    {
      "forecastId": "fc-2026-07-18b-hormuz-transits-portwatch",
      "storedStatus": "active",
      "derivedStatus": "active",
      "conflict": false,
      "reason": "Issued, unresolved, and 178 days from its resolution date — outside the 45-day shipping nearing window.",
      "daysToResolution": 178,
      "publiclyActive": true,
      "resolutionDataOverdue": false
    },
    {
      "forecastId": "fc-sudan-idp-2026-12",
      "storedStatus": "superseded",
      "derivedStatus": "superseded",
      "conflict": false,
      "reason": "Superseded by fc-2026-07-18-sudan-idp-threshold — preserved permanently at its own URL.",
      "daysToResolution": null,
      "publiclyActive": false,
      "resolutionDataOverdue": false
    },
    {
      "forecastId": "hc-2026-02-eia-brent-june-revision",
      "storedStatus": "resolved",
      "derivedStatus": "resolved",
      "conflict": false,
      "reason": "An outcome was attached and scored; the original prediction is preserved unchanged.",
      "daysToResolution": 32,
      "publiclyActive": false,
      "resolutionDataOverdue": false
    },
    {
      "forecastId": "hc-2026-03-sudan-idp-decline",
      "storedStatus": "resolved",
      "derivedStatus": "resolved",
      "conflict": false,
      "reason": "An outcome was attached and scored; the original prediction is preserved unchanged.",
      "daysToResolution": -68,
      "publiclyActive": false,
      "resolutionDataOverdue": false
    }
  ],
  "queues": [
    {
      "forecastId": "fc-2026-07-18-suez-transits-depressed",
      "slug": "suez-transit-volumes-remain-depressed",
      "title": "Suez transit volumes remain far below the pre-2024 baseline through 2026",
      "relatedSourceIds": [
        "suez-canal-authority",
        "sca-chairman-statement-2026",
        "imf-portwatch-chokepoints",
        "imf-portwatch-red-sea",
        "logistics-trade-press-redsea"
      ],
      "relatedModelId": "threshold-persistence-v1",
      "queue": "weak-source-replacement",
      "problem": "Depends on 1 weak/provisional source(s): logistics-trade-press-redsea.",
      "dueDate": null,
      "severity": "normal",
      "requiredAction": "Look for a stronger institutional source for the same metric. Weak sources may inform direction but can never resolve a forecast.",
      "publicationRemainsSafe": true,
      "automatic": false
    },
    {
      "forecastId": "fc-2026-07-18-suez-transits-depressed",
      "slug": "suez-transit-volumes-remain-depressed",
      "title": "Suez transit volumes remain far below the pre-2024 baseline through 2026",
      "relatedSourceIds": [
        "suez-canal-authority",
        "sca-chairman-statement-2026",
        "imf-portwatch-chokepoints",
        "imf-portwatch-red-sea",
        "logistics-trade-press-redsea"
      ],
      "relatedModelId": "threshold-persistence-v1",
      "queue": "resolution-definition-risk",
      "problem": "Resolution source names a fallback or an unnamed equivalent, so the deciding measure may not be fixed.",
      "dueDate": null,
      "severity": "normal",
      "requiredAction": "Before resolution, confirm which specific source and metric will decide it, and record that choice publicly.",
      "publicationRemainsSafe": true,
      "automatic": false
    },
    {
      "forecastId": "fc-2026-07-18-eia-brent-revision",
      "slug": "eia-brent-forecast-revision-direction",
      "title": "EIA revises its 4Q2026 Brent forecast upward in the August 2026 STEO",
      "relatedSourceIds": [
        "eia-steo",
        "hormuz-crisis-tracking"
      ],
      "relatedModelId": "external-forecast-tracking-v1",
      "queue": "weak-source-replacement",
      "problem": "Depends on 1 weak/provisional source(s): hormuz-crisis-tracking.",
      "dueDate": null,
      "severity": "normal",
      "requiredAction": "Look for a stronger institutional source for the same metric. Weak sources may inform direction but can never resolve a forecast.",
      "publicationRemainsSafe": true,
      "automatic": false
    },
    {
      "forecastId": "fc-2026-07-18-eia-brent-revision",
      "slug": "eia-brent-forecast-revision-direction",
      "title": "EIA revises its 4Q2026 Brent forecast upward in the August 2026 STEO",
      "relatedSourceIds": [
        "eia-steo",
        "hormuz-crisis-tracking"
      ],
      "relatedModelId": "external-forecast-tracking-v1",
      "queue": "provisional-source-corroboration",
      "problem": "Evidence status is provisional — the underlying reporting is thin, fast-moving, or single-sourced.",
      "dueDate": null,
      "severity": "normal",
      "requiredAction": "Seek independent corroboration. If a second credible source confirms, consider a superseding forecast at a higher evidence status.",
      "publicationRemainsSafe": true,
      "automatic": false
    },
    {
      "forecastId": "fc-2026-07-18b-hormuz-transits-portwatch",
      "slug": "hormuz-transits-below-portwatch-baseline",
      "title": "Strait of Hormuz daily transits stay below the PortWatch peacetime baseline through October 2026",
      "relatedSourceIds": [
        "imf-portwatch-chokepoints",
        "hormuz-crisis-tracking",
        "eia-steo"
      ],
      "relatedModelId": "threshold-persistence-v1",
      "queue": "weak-source-replacement",
      "problem": "Depends on 1 weak/provisional source(s): hormuz-crisis-tracking.",
      "dueDate": null,
      "severity": "normal",
      "requiredAction": "Look for a stronger institutional source for the same metric. Weak sources may inform direction but can never resolve a forecast.",
      "publicationRemainsSafe": true,
      "automatic": false
    },
    {
      "queue": "model-review-due",
      "forecastId": "trend-continuation-v1",
      "title": "Trend continuation (rule-based)",
      "problem": "Model card has been in production 493 days without a documented review.",
      "dueDate": null,
      "severity": "normal",
      "requiredAction": "Re-read the model card's assumptions and weaknesses against how its forecasts have actually performed; bump the model version if anything changed.",
      "publicationRemainsSafe": true,
      "automatic": false,
      "relatedSourceIds": [],
      "relatedModelId": "trend-continuation-v1"
    }
  ]
}