What the data shows
Suez Canal transits ran around 2,200 vessels a month before the late-2023 Red Sea attacks, then roughly halved through 2024 as carriers diverted around the Cape of Good Hope. Early-2026 SCA figures show a partial recovery (+5.8% vessels year over year, against an already-depressed 2025 base — not against the pre-disruption 2023 level). Warconomy's active forecast expects December-2026 transits to remain well below the 2023 baseline.
Covered through June 30, 2026 · reviewed July 22, 2026.
Series
Each class is drawn with a distinct line style and marker shape (not colour alone). Vertical whiskers show uncertainty ranges. Modeled values (reconstructed / nowcast / forecast / scenario) are estimates, never reported history — see the epistemic model.
All values
| Period | Value (vessels/month) | Class | Evidence | Range meaning | Source / method |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 (baseline) | 2,200 vessels/month | Obse | Reported | point | Suez Canal Authority — traffic and transit statistics |
| 2024 (trough) | 950–1,250 vessels/month | Reco | Provisional | plausible range | Suez Canal Authority — traffic and transit statistics; IMF PortWatch — Red Sea Attacks Disrupt Global Trade method |
| 2025 | 1,050–1,300 vessels/month | Reco | Provisional | plausible range | IMF PortWatch — daily chokepoint transit calls and trade volume |
| Early 2026 | 1,200–1,350 vessels/month | Obse | Reported | plausible range | Suez Canal Authority chairman Ossama Rabiee — MARLOG 15 traffic and revenue statement |
| Mid-2026 | 1,150–1,450 vessels/month | Nowc | Provisional | plausible range | Suez Canal Authority chairman Ossama Rabiee — MARLOG 15 traffic and revenue statement method |
| Dec 2026 (forecast) | 1,100–1,650 vessels/month | Fore | Reported | plausible range | Suez Canal Authority — traffic and transit statistics; IMF PortWatch — daily chokepoint transit calls and trade volume method |
Per-point notes
- 2023 (baseline): Pre-disruption monthly average (~26,400 ships in 2023).
- 2024 (trough): Reconstructed monthly trough after the ~50-60% collapse.
- 2025: Reconstructed 2025 depressed level.
- Early 2026: SCA chairman: +5.8% vessels YoY vs an already-depressed 2025 base.
- Mid-2026: Nowcast of the current monthly level.
- Dec 2026 (forecast): Warconomy forecast: December-2026 transits remain at least 25% below the 2023 baseline.
Source & definition notes
Source change (January 1, 2025): Suez Canal Authority — traffic and transit statistics → IMF PortWatch — daily chokepoint transit calls and trade volume. The SCA portal was intermittently unreachable for direct reading; IMF PortWatch (satellite AIS) provides a continuous proxy for the depressed 2025 stretch. PortWatch transit-call counts and SCA vessel counts are close but not identically defined; the transition is marked so the reader knows the underlying source changed.
Explicit gaps (shown as gaps, never zero-filled): 2024-01-01–2025-12-31 (source-inaccessible).
Sources
- Suez Canal Authority — traffic and transit statistics — Suez Canal Authority (Egypt)
- IMF PortWatch — Red Sea Attacks Disrupt Global Trade — International Monetary Fund
- IMF PortWatch — daily chokepoint transit calls and trade volume — International Monetary Fund with the Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford
- Suez Canal Authority chairman Ossama Rabiee — MARLOG 15 traffic and revenue statement — Suez Canal Authority (statement by its chairman, reported by regional press)
Cite this page
Warconomy, “Suez Canal monthly vessel transits”, reviewed as of July 22, 2026. https://warconomy.com/data-series/suez-canal-monthly-transits.
Machine-readable: the JSON dataset and source registry. More citation formats on the citation catalog. Values are source-linked and manually maintained; not real-time.
Related
All data series · this series as JSON · epistemic model · forecasts