What a model card is forThis page exists so any Warconomy forecast produced by this model can be audited: what it assumes, where it breaks, how its uncertainty is built, and what simple baseline it must beat to be worth running. Forecasts are decision-support, not advice.
At a glance
| Model ID | threshold-persistence-v1 |
|---|---|
| Version | 1.0 |
| Method family | rule based projection |
| Intended use | Estimate whether a disrupted indicator remains on the far side of a defined threshold through a stated date, where the disruption has structural causes that resolve slowly. |
| Update cadence | monthly |
| Analyst judgment | Yes — a human sets or adjusts key parameters (see below) |
| Forecasts using it | 2 |
Assumptions
- The structural drivers of the current disruption (security risk, insurer pricing, contracted routing decisions) unwind more slowly than the headline news cycle suggests.
- Commercial operators change routing on multi-month planning cycles, not in immediate response to single events.
Known weaknesses and failure conditions
- Systematically biased toward persistence — it will be late to call a genuine normalization.
- Threshold choice is a judgment call; a differently-drawn threshold could flip the answer.
- Depends on the resolution source continuing to publish a comparable measure.
How uncertainty is built
Coarse probability band reflecting how far the current value sits from the threshold relative to its recent volatility.
Validation and baseline comparison
Resolved against the named publishing authority's own figure at the resolution date. Baseline: 'persistence' (assume today's state simply continues), which this model must beat to be worth running.
Model change history
| Version | Change |
|---|---|
| 1.0 | Initial production release of this model card, issued with Warconomy's first forecast portfolio. |
Model versions are immutable. A material methodology change produces a new version, and forecasts issued under the old version keep pointing at the version that produced them.
Forecasts produced by this model
Related
All forecasting methods · Responsible forecasting policy · Active forecasts · Track record