{
  "id": "suez-canal-monthly-transits",
  "title": "Suez Canal monthly vessel transits",
  "unit": "vessels/month",
  "domain": "shipping",
  "metricId": "suez-canal-monthly-transits",
  "metricName": "Suez Canal monthly vessel transits",
  "subjectType": "chokepoint",
  "subjectId": "red-sea-shipping",
  "summaryFinding": "Suez Canal transits ran around 2,200 vessels a month before the late-2023 Red Sea attacks, then roughly halved through 2024 as carriers diverted around the Cape of Good Hope. Early-2026 SCA figures show a partial recovery (+5.8% vessels year over year, against an already-depressed 2025 base — not against the pre-disruption 2023 level). Warconomy's active forecast expects December-2026 transits to remain well below the 2023 baseline.",
  "geographicCoverage": "Suez Canal / Red Sea corridor",
  "coveredThrough": "2026-06-30",
  "lastReviewed": "2026-07-22",
  "page": "https://warconomy.com/data-series/suez-canal-monthly-transits",
  "points": [
    {
      "period": "2023 (baseline)",
      "date": "2023-12-31",
      "epistemicClass": "observed",
      "evidenceStatus": "reported",
      "value": 2200,
      "interval": null,
      "sourceIds": [
        "suez-canal-authority"
      ],
      "recordRef": null,
      "note": "Pre-disruption monthly average (~26,400 ships in 2023)."
    },
    {
      "period": "2024 (trough)",
      "date": "2024-12-31",
      "epistemicClass": "reconstructed",
      "evidenceStatus": "provisional",
      "value": null,
      "interval": {
        "low": 950,
        "high": 1250,
        "intervalMeaning": "plausible-range"
      },
      "sourceIds": [
        "suez-canal-authority",
        "imf-portwatch-red-sea"
      ],
      "recordRef": {
        "kind": "historical-estimate",
        "id": "he-suez-2024-trough"
      },
      "note": "Reconstructed monthly trough after the ~50-60% collapse."
    },
    {
      "period": "2025",
      "date": "2025-12-31",
      "epistemicClass": "reconstructed",
      "evidenceStatus": "provisional",
      "value": null,
      "interval": {
        "low": 1050,
        "high": 1300,
        "intervalMeaning": "plausible-range"
      },
      "sourceIds": [
        "imf-portwatch-chokepoints"
      ],
      "recordRef": null,
      "note": "Reconstructed 2025 depressed level."
    },
    {
      "period": "Early 2026",
      "date": "2026-04-30",
      "epistemicClass": "observed",
      "evidenceStatus": "reported",
      "value": null,
      "interval": {
        "low": 1200,
        "high": 1350,
        "intervalMeaning": "plausible-range"
      },
      "sourceIds": [
        "sca-chairman-statement-2026"
      ],
      "recordRef": null,
      "note": "SCA chairman: +5.8% vessels YoY vs an already-depressed 2025 base."
    },
    {
      "period": "Mid-2026",
      "date": "2026-07-31",
      "epistemicClass": "nowcast",
      "evidenceStatus": "provisional",
      "value": null,
      "interval": {
        "low": 1150,
        "high": 1450,
        "intervalMeaning": "plausible-range"
      },
      "sourceIds": [
        "sca-chairman-statement-2026"
      ],
      "recordRef": {
        "kind": "nowcast",
        "id": "nc-suez-2026-mid"
      },
      "note": "Nowcast of the current monthly level."
    },
    {
      "period": "Dec 2026 (forecast)",
      "date": "2026-12-31",
      "epistemicClass": "forecast",
      "evidenceStatus": "reported",
      "value": null,
      "interval": {
        "low": 1100,
        "high": 1650,
        "intervalMeaning": "plausible-range"
      },
      "sourceIds": [
        "suez-canal-authority",
        "imf-portwatch-chokepoints"
      ],
      "recordRef": {
        "kind": "forecast",
        "id": "fc-2026-07-18-suez-transits-depressed"
      },
      "note": "Warconomy forecast: December-2026 transits remain at least 25% below the 2023 baseline."
    }
  ],
  "competingSeries": [],
  "sourceTransitions": [
    {
      "transitionDate": "2025-01-01",
      "fromSourceId": "suez-canal-authority",
      "toSourceId": "imf-portwatch-chokepoints",
      "reason": "The SCA portal was intermittently unreachable for direct reading; IMF PortWatch (satellite AIS) provides a continuous proxy for the depressed 2025 stretch.",
      "comparabilityNote": "PortWatch transit-call counts and SCA vessel counts are close but not identically defined; the transition is marked so the reader knows the underlying source changed."
    }
  ],
  "definitionChanges": [],
  "missingPeriods": [
    {
      "start": "2024-01-01",
      "end": "2025-12-31",
      "reason": "source-inaccessible"
    }
  ],
  "methodologyIds": [
    "anchor-interpolation-v1",
    "proxy-nowcast-v1"
  ]
}