⛽ What could gas cost if oil jumps?
Enter what you pay now, move crude, and watch the range update — today vs low, mid and high.
Crude oil → cost in a gallon of fuel
Scenario · not a forecastSet your pump price and a crude move to see a scenario range for what gas could cost. The crude baseline is source-linked; the pump price and assumptions are yours. A scenario, not a live price and not a forecast.
What if crude moves? Your scenario range
Scenario range · not a forecastSet a crude move, a pass-through assumption, a time horizon and a lag. The tool shows a low–mid–high scenario range for the pump and how it could build over time — all from your assumptions, not a prediction of what you will pay.
If pump gas is $3.50 and crude moves from $74 to $94/barrel, the crude input changes by about +48¢/gallon. With a 40–80% pass-through assumption, this scenario shows about $3.69–$3.88/gallon by end of year, before other local factors. This is a scenario, not a forecast.
Your scenario range by end of year — move any slider above to watch it change.
How it could build over time (mid assumption)
Sensitivity — pass-through vs scenario pump (end of year)
What drives the change?
The full crude move is dampened by how much reaches the pump (pass-through) and by the lag — which is why the scenario change is smaller than the raw crude move.
What this does not include: taxes and margins that move on their own, refining and distribution shifts, demand response, regional constraints, inventory effects, and how quickly crude reaches the pump. Pump prices follow crude loosely, not one-for-one — so treat this as a range to reason with, not a number to expect.
What the "spread" can include — and why it is not "profit"
The gap between the pump price and the crude cost is nota measure of anyone's profit. It bundles many real costs and cannot be separated into profit by this tool:
Households Pump prices follow crude only loosely and with a lag; taxes and local costs shape what you actually pay.
Businesses Fuel-intensive sectors (logistics, airlines, farming) feel crude moves first; retail fuel margins are thin and competitive.
Government Fuel taxes and any subsidies sit inside the spread; they shape both prices and public budgets.
A scenario built on a source-linked crude baseline and your own inputs — not a forecast, not a live price, not investment advice. How this reaches the gas pump →
Crude baseline: World Bank World Bank Commodity Price Data (the Pink Sheet), 2024-12. 1 barrel = 42 US gallons (EIA).
Go deeper: the Global Shock Simulator
Explore major conflict-economy shocks — Hormuz, a Red Sea diversion, a Taiwan contingency, a rare-earth restriction and more. Set the assumptions and see the pathways, the numeric models where the maths is honest, and what each could mean for everyday life.
Open the Global Shock Simulator Compare scenariosMore what-if calculators
Oil price shock → cost of crude in a gallon of fuel
Scenario · not a forecastStart from Brent crude at $74/bbl (2024-12). Move the price and see the mechanical change in the crude-cost portion of a gallon of fuel.
Δ¢/gallon = (Δ$/bbl ÷ 42 gal) × 100. This is the crude component only — pump prices also include refining, distribution, taxes and margins, which vary by country and are not a prediction of what you pay.
- Oil price move
- Crude cost change
- Fuel & freight
- Transport costs
- Pump & goods prices
Households Fuel at the pump, heating, and the cost of anything that has to be delivered.
Businesses Transport, freight and input costs — logistics, airlines and manufacturers most exposed.
Government Fuel-subsidy and inflation pressure; a possible revenue windfall for oil exporters.
What it does not include: Taxes, refining and retail margins, and how much people cut back when prices rise — all of which vary by country.
It is a scenario, not a forecast — it shows the mechanical size of one change, not what will happen. How this reaches the gas pump →
Baseline: World Bank World Bank Commodity Price Data (the Pink Sheet), 2024-12. U.S. Energy Information Administration (units).
World food-price move → household food bill
Scenario · not a forecastWorld food commodity prices (FAO index 130.8, 2026-05) only partly, and slowly, reach the supermarket. Set a price move and how much passes through to retail.
Retail effect = world price change × pass-through. Pass-through is partial and gradual; the default (20%) is an adjustable illustration, not a measured constant.
- World food-price move
- Partial pass-through
- Retail food
- Grocery bill pressure
Households Grocery bills over time — felt most by lower-income and import-dependent families.
Businesses Input-cost pressure for food processors, retailers and restaurants.
Government Food-security and subsidy pressure, and more demand for social support.
What it does not include: Retail margins, local subsidies, and shoppers switching to cheaper items — so shelf prices move far less.
It is a scenario, not a forecast — it shows the mechanical size of one change, not what will happen. How this reaches the grocery store →
Baseline: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) FAO Food Price Index, 2026-05. General economic literature on food-price pass-through (illustrative).
Labour-force loss → output
Scenario · not a forecastWar can shrink the working-age population through death, injury and emigration. In simple growth accounting, a smaller labour force mechanically lowers output.
Output change ≈ labour share (0.62) × labour-force change. "All else equal" is a strong assumption: real economies adjust through capital, productivity and participation. This is a teaching figure, not a forecast.
- Labour-force loss
- Lower output
- Jobs & services
- Tax base & growth
Households Fewer workers and earners, and more unpaid care needs within families.
Businesses A tighter labour supply and skills shortage; wage pressure in affected sectors.
Government A smaller tax base alongside higher care, health and pension obligations.
What it does not include: How economies adapt — more capital, higher productivity, or changed participation can offset a smaller workforce.
It is a scenario, not a forecast — it shows the mechanical size of one change, not what will happen. How this reaches jobs & growth →
Standard growth-accounting (Cobb–Douglas) convention; illustrative.
Defense burden → spending as a share of GDP
Scenario · not a forecastSet an economy's size and how much of GDP it devotes to defense, and compare it with a 2% reference share (the NATO guideline).
Defense $ = (share of GDP) × GDP. Whether higher defense spending "crowds out" other spending depends on how it is financed (taxes, borrowing, growth) — this shows the size, not the trade-off, and is not a prediction.
- Higher defense share
- Borrowing / taxes
- Budget trade-offs
- Public services & taxes
Households Possible tax or public-service trade-offs over time, depending on financing.
Businesses Defense suppliers can gain, while other sectors face crowding-out risk.
Government Budget, debt and inflation pressure — the size depends on how it is financed.
What it does not include: How the spending is financed — tax, borrowing or growth — which decides who bears the cost and when.
It is a scenario, not a forecast — it shows the mechanical size of one change, not what will happen. How this reaches taxes & budgets →
Reference share: NATO 2%-of-GDP guideline. GDP size is user-set, illustrative.
Each tool here takes a real, source-linked baseline — today's Brent crude price, the FAO food index, a labour-force share — and applies one transparent step of arithmetic to a change you choose. The aim is understanding, not prediction: it shows how a shock could mechanically flow through, while being explicit about everything it leaves out. Nothing here is a forecast, and no value is invented.
- Crude oil → your gas pump: a scenario range for what gas could cost (the spread is never called profit).
- World food-price move → an illustrative household food bill, with an adjustable pass-through.
- Labour-force loss → output, via simple growth accounting.
- Defense burden → spending as a share of GDP, against a 2% reference.
What these tools deliberately leave out
- Second-round effects: real shocks move many things at once (wages, demand, policy, exchange rates); each tool isolates a single mechanical step.
- Pass-through is uncertain: how much of a commodity move reaches consumers varies by country, product and time — defaults are adjustable illustrations, not measured constants.
- No timing: the tools say nothing about when or whether a change occurs.
- Not a forecast or advice: outputs are scenarios for learning, never predictions, investment, trading or policy guidance.
Baselines & sources
- Brent crude: 73.83 $/bbl (2024-12) — World Bank World Bank Commodity Price Data (the Pink Sheet), accessed June 25, 2026.
- FAO Food Price Index: 130.8 (2026-05, basis 2014-2016 = 100) — Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) FAO Food Price Index, accessed June 25, 2026.
- Labour share of output: 0.62 — Standard growth-accounting (Cobb–Douglas) convention; illustrative.
- Machine-readable: /scenario-lab/data.json.