Plausible range — this is not a claim of precision beyond what the underlying method supports.
- Issued
- Data cutoff
- Horizon
- 425 days
- Resolves by
- Epistemic class
- Forecast (modeled, not observed)
- Evidence status
- verified
How this resolves
Resolves TRUE if DTM's March 2026 Sudan round reports a national IDP total below 9,500,000.
Resolution source: IOM Displacement Tracking Matrix, Sudan displacement and return snapshots
Assumptions
- Cutoff-date information only: DTM's recorded peak was 11,585,384 IDPs in January 2025.
- Returns would begin to outpace new displacement as some areas stabilized.
Leading indicators to watch
- DTM return figures relative to new-displacement figures
What would make this wrong
- A major new offensive displacing over a million people.
Naive baseline comparison
| Baseline | No-change naive baseline |
|---|---|
| Baseline said | The March 2026 total remains at the January 2025 peak of 11,585,384. |
| Baseline outcome | Baseline was wrong |
What actually happened
DTM's 29 March 2026 round recorded an estimated 8,936,175 IDPs — a 23% decline from the peak, inside the forecast's 8.5-9.5 million plausible range. The no-change baseline was wrong by roughly 2.65 million.
| Observed value | 8,936,175 |
|---|---|
| Interval covered outcome | Yes |
| Directionally correct | Yes |
| Scored |
The prediction above is preserved exactly as issued — this outcome sits alongside it and never replaces it.
Methodology
Takes the recent pace of change in an official series and keeps it going, assuming nothing dramatic happens. Simple, transparent, and easy to check — but it will miss sudden shocks.
Uncertainty: A plausible-range bracket, widened for longer horizons, reflecting the compounding risk that the constant-rate assumption breaks down. Not a statistical confidence interval — labeled as plausible-range throughout.
Validation: Compared against a no-change naive baseline on historical published points where two or more comparable rounds exist. See /forecast-track-record for the hindcast demonstrations.
Full model card: Trend continuation (rule-based) v1.0.
Sources
| Source | Type | Link |
|---|---|---|
| IOM — Displacement Tracking Matrix, Sudan | Intergovernmental | dtm.iom.int/sudan |
All forecast fields (accessible table)
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Forecast ID | hc-2026-03-sudan-idp-decline |
| Target variable | IOM DTM Sudan total internally displaced persons |
| Target event | IOM DTM's March 2026 round reports a national IDP total below 9.5 million |
| Prediction | 8,500,000–9,500,000 |
| Issue date | 2025-01-28 |
| Data cutoff | 2025-01-28 |
| Horizon (days) | 425 |
| Resolution date | 2026-03-29 |
| Resolution source | IOM Displacement Tracking Matrix, Sudan displacement and return snapshots |
| Status | resolved |
| Epistemic class | forecast |
| Evidence status | verified |
| Model | trend-continuation-v1 v1.0 |
| Hindcast | Yes — not a live prediction |
Machine-readable: /forecasts/data.json