What the data shows
Successive joint Rapid Damage and Needs Assessments (RDNA) have raised Ukraine's estimated 10-year reconstruction need with each vintage: roughly $349bn (2022) → $411bn (2023) → $486bn (2024) → $524bn (RDNA4, Feb 2025) → almost $588bn (RDNA5, Feb 2026). Each vintage is preserved, not overwritten — the point of the series is to show how the estimate has grown. Values are shown as ranges because a reconstruction-cost point estimate is not defensible.
Covered through February 23, 2026 · reviewed July 22, 2026.
Series
Each class is drawn with a distinct line style and marker shape (not colour alone). Vertical whiskers show uncertainty ranges. Modeled values (reconstructed / nowcast / forecast / scenario) are estimates, never reported history — see the epistemic model.
All values
| Period | Value (USD billion) | Class | Evidence | Range meaning | Source / method |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RDNA1 (2022) | 330–360 USD billion | Reco | Reported | plausible range | Ukraine — Fourth Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment (RDNA4); World Bank |
| RDNA2 (2023) | 400–420 USD billion | Reco | Reported | plausible range | Ukraine — Fourth Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment (RDNA4); World Bank |
| RDNA3 (2024) | 475–495 USD billion | Reco | Reported | plausible range | Ukraine — Fourth Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment (RDNA4); World Bank |
| RDNA4 (Feb 2025) | 524 USD billion | Obse | Reported | point | Ukraine — Fourth Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment (RDNA4) |
| RDNA5 (Feb 2026) | 588 USD billion | Obse | Reported | point | World Bank / Government of Ukraine / EC / UN — Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment (RDNA5) |
| Next RDNA (scenario) | 600–700 USD billion | Scen | Unverified | plausible range | World Bank / Government of Ukraine / EC / UN — Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment (RDNA5) method |
Per-point notes
- RDNA1 (2022): Earliest RDNA vintage (~$349bn), transcribed from the assessment lineage.
- RDNA2 (2023): ~$411bn vintage.
- RDNA3 (2024): ~$486bn vintage.
- RDNA4 (Feb 2025): RDNA4: $524bn over 10 years, data as of Dec 2024 (directly cited).
- RDNA5 (Feb 2026): RDNA5: almost $588bn over 10 years, data as of Dec 2025 (directly cited).
- Next RDNA (scenario): Conditional continued-war path for the next vintage.
Source & definition notes
Definition change (February 25, 2025): RDNA4-5 are directly-cited from registered World Bank sources. All are the same joint-assessment methodology over a 10-year horizon; each vintage covers a longer war period, which is WHY the number grows — the vintages are not directly substitutable as a like-for-like time series.
Sources
- Ukraine — Fourth Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment (RDNA4) — Government of Ukraine, World Bank Group, European Commission, and United Nations
- World Bank — World Bank Group
- World Bank / Government of Ukraine / EC / UN — Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment (RDNA5) — World Bank Group with the Government of Ukraine, European Commission, and United Nations
Cite this page
Warconomy, “Ukraine reconstruction & recovery need (RDNA vintages)”, reviewed as of July 22, 2026. https://warconomy.com/data-series/ukraine-reconstruction-need.
Machine-readable: the JSON dataset and source registry. More citation formats on the citation catalog. Values are source-linked and manually maintained; not real-time.
Related
All data series · this series as JSON · epistemic model · forecasts