{
  "id": "ukraine-reconstruction-need",
  "title": "Ukraine reconstruction & recovery need (RDNA vintages)",
  "unit": "USD billion",
  "domain": "reconstruction",
  "metricId": "ukraine-reconstruction-need",
  "metricName": "Ukraine reconstruction & recovery need",
  "subjectType": "conflict",
  "subjectId": "russia-ukraine",
  "summaryFinding": "Successive joint Rapid Damage and Needs Assessments (RDNA) have raised Ukraine's estimated 10-year reconstruction need with each vintage: roughly $349bn (2022) → $411bn (2023) → $486bn (2024) → $524bn (RDNA4, Feb 2025) → almost $588bn (RDNA5, Feb 2026). Each vintage is preserved, not overwritten — the point of the series is to show how the estimate has grown. Values are shown as ranges because a reconstruction-cost point estimate is not defensible.",
  "geographicCoverage": "Ukraine",
  "coveredThrough": "2026-02-23",
  "lastReviewed": "2026-07-22",
  "page": "https://warconomy.com/data-series/ukraine-reconstruction-need",
  "points": [
    {
      "period": "RDNA1 (2022)",
      "date": "2022-09-01",
      "epistemicClass": "reconstructed",
      "evidenceStatus": "reported",
      "value": null,
      "interval": {
        "low": 330,
        "high": 360,
        "intervalMeaning": "plausible-range"
      },
      "sourceIds": [
        "wb-rdna4",
        "worldbank"
      ],
      "recordRef": null,
      "note": "Earliest RDNA vintage (~$349bn), transcribed from the assessment lineage."
    },
    {
      "period": "RDNA2 (2023)",
      "date": "2023-03-01",
      "epistemicClass": "reconstructed",
      "evidenceStatus": "reported",
      "value": null,
      "interval": {
        "low": 400,
        "high": 420,
        "intervalMeaning": "plausible-range"
      },
      "sourceIds": [
        "wb-rdna4",
        "worldbank"
      ],
      "recordRef": null,
      "note": "~$411bn vintage."
    },
    {
      "period": "RDNA3 (2024)",
      "date": "2024-02-01",
      "epistemicClass": "reconstructed",
      "evidenceStatus": "reported",
      "value": null,
      "interval": {
        "low": 475,
        "high": 495,
        "intervalMeaning": "plausible-range"
      },
      "sourceIds": [
        "wb-rdna4",
        "worldbank"
      ],
      "recordRef": null,
      "note": "~$486bn vintage."
    },
    {
      "period": "RDNA4 (Feb 2025)",
      "date": "2025-02-25",
      "epistemicClass": "observed",
      "evidenceStatus": "reported",
      "value": 524,
      "interval": null,
      "sourceIds": [
        "wb-rdna4"
      ],
      "recordRef": null,
      "note": "RDNA4: $524bn over 10 years, data as of Dec 2024 (directly cited)."
    },
    {
      "period": "RDNA5 (Feb 2026)",
      "date": "2026-02-23",
      "epistemicClass": "observed",
      "evidenceStatus": "reported",
      "value": 588,
      "interval": null,
      "sourceIds": [
        "worldbank-rdna5"
      ],
      "recordRef": null,
      "note": "RDNA5: almost $588bn over 10 years, data as of Dec 2025 (directly cited)."
    },
    {
      "period": "Next RDNA (scenario)",
      "date": "2027-02-28",
      "epistemicClass": "scenario",
      "evidenceStatus": "unverified-lead",
      "value": null,
      "interval": {
        "low": 600,
        "high": 700,
        "intervalMeaning": "plausible-range"
      },
      "sourceIds": [
        "worldbank-rdna5"
      ],
      "recordRef": {
        "kind": "scenario",
        "id": "sc-ukraine-reconstruction-next"
      },
      "note": "Conditional continued-war path for the next vintage."
    }
  ],
  "competingSeries": [],
  "sourceTransitions": [],
  "definitionChanges": [
    {
      "changeDate": "2025-02-25",
      "oldDefinition": "RDNA1-3 vintages transcribed from the assessment lineage (reconstructed provenance).",
      "newDefinition": "RDNA4-5 are directly-cited from registered World Bank sources.",
      "comparabilityNote": "All are the same joint-assessment methodology over a 10-year horizon; each vintage covers a longer war period, which is WHY the number grows — the vintages are not directly substitutable as a like-for-like time series."
    }
  ],
  "missingPeriods": [],
  "methodologyIds": [
    "anchor-interpolation-v1",
    "conditional-scenario-v1"
  ]
}