What the data shows
Internal displacement in Sudan peaked at roughly 11.5 million in January 2025 and had fallen to close to 9 million by end-March 2026 as some people returned to contested or unstable areas — a decline that reflects fragile, not necessarily safe or durable, returns. Warconomy interpolates the unreported months between IOM's survey rounds and nowcasts the present, both clearly marked as estimates.
Covered through March 31, 2026 · reviewed July 22, 2026.
Series
Each class is drawn with a distinct line style and marker shape (not colour alone). Vertical whiskers show uncertainty ranges. Modeled values (reconstructed / nowcast / forecast / scenario) are estimates, never reported history — see the epistemic model.
All values
| Period | Value (people) | Class | Evidence | Range meaning | Source / method |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2025 | 11,500,000 people | Obse | Reported | point | IOM — Displacement Tracking Matrix, Sudan |
| Oct 2025 | 9,700,000–10,100,000 people | Reco | Provisional | plausible range | IOM — Displacement Tracking Matrix, Sudan method |
| Mar 2026 | 8,500,000–9,000,000 people | Obse | Reported | plausible range | IOM — Displacement Tracking Matrix, Sudan |
| Q2 2026 | 8,300,000–8,700,000 people | Nowc | Provisional | plausible range | IOM — Displacement Tracking Matrix, Sudan method |
| End-2026 (continued conflict) | 8,500,000–9,200,000 people | Scen | Unverified | plausible range | IOM — Displacement Tracking Matrix, Sudan method |
| End-2026 (de-escalation) | 5,500,000–7,000,000 people | Scen | Unverified | plausible range | IOM — Displacement Tracking Matrix, Sudan method |
Per-point notes
- Jan 2025: IOM DTM peak displacement figure.
- Oct 2025: Interpolated between the Jan-2025 peak and the end-March-2026 round; not an IOM-published point.
- Mar 2026: IOM DTM 'close to nine million' as of end-March 2026.
- Q2 2026: Trend-continuation nowcast; replaced when IOM's next round publishes.
- End-2026 (continued conflict): Conditional path — access does not improve. Not a prediction.
- End-2026 (de-escalation): Conditional path — ceasefire enables faster returns. Not a prediction.
Source & definition notes
Explicit gaps (shown as gaps, never zero-filled): 2025-02-01–2025-09-30 (not-published); 2025-11-01–2026-02-28 (not-published).
Sources
- IOM — Displacement Tracking Matrix, Sudan — International Organization for Migration (IOM)
Cite this page
Warconomy, “Sudan internal displacement (IDPs)”, reviewed as of July 22, 2026. https://warconomy.com/data-series/sudan-displacement.
Machine-readable: the JSON dataset and source registry. More citation formats on the citation catalog. Values are source-linked and manually maintained; not real-time.
Related
All data series · this series as JSON · epistemic model · forecasts