{
  "id": "sudan-displacement",
  "title": "Sudan internal displacement (IDPs)",
  "unit": "people",
  "domain": "displacement",
  "metricId": "sudan-internally-displaced-persons",
  "metricName": "Sudan internally displaced persons",
  "subjectType": "conflict",
  "subjectId": "sudan",
  "summaryFinding": "Internal displacement in Sudan peaked at roughly 11.5 million in January 2025 and had fallen to close to 9 million by end-March 2026 as some people returned to contested or unstable areas — a decline that reflects fragile, not necessarily safe or durable, returns. Warconomy interpolates the unreported months between IOM's survey rounds and nowcasts the present, both clearly marked as estimates.",
  "geographicCoverage": "Sudan (nationwide); some contested areas access-constrained for direct verification",
  "coveredThrough": "2026-03-31",
  "lastReviewed": "2026-07-22",
  "page": "https://warconomy.com/data-series/sudan-displacement",
  "points": [
    {
      "period": "Jan 2025",
      "date": "2025-01-31",
      "epistemicClass": "observed",
      "evidenceStatus": "reported",
      "value": 11500000,
      "interval": null,
      "sourceIds": [
        "iom-dtm-sudan"
      ],
      "recordRef": null,
      "note": "IOM DTM peak displacement figure."
    },
    {
      "period": "Oct 2025",
      "date": "2025-10-31",
      "epistemicClass": "reconstructed",
      "evidenceStatus": "provisional",
      "value": null,
      "interval": {
        "low": 9700000,
        "high": 10100000,
        "intervalMeaning": "plausible-range"
      },
      "sourceIds": [
        "iom-dtm-sudan"
      ],
      "recordRef": {
        "kind": "historical-estimate",
        "id": "he-sudan-idp-2025-10"
      },
      "note": "Interpolated between the Jan-2025 peak and the end-March-2026 round; not an IOM-published point."
    },
    {
      "period": "Mar 2026",
      "date": "2026-03-31",
      "epistemicClass": "observed",
      "evidenceStatus": "reported",
      "value": null,
      "interval": {
        "low": 8500000,
        "high": 9000000,
        "intervalMeaning": "plausible-range"
      },
      "sourceIds": [
        "iom-dtm-sudan"
      ],
      "recordRef": null,
      "note": "IOM DTM 'close to nine million' as of end-March 2026."
    },
    {
      "period": "Q2 2026",
      "date": "2026-06-30",
      "epistemicClass": "nowcast",
      "evidenceStatus": "provisional",
      "value": null,
      "interval": {
        "low": 8300000,
        "high": 8700000,
        "intervalMeaning": "plausible-range"
      },
      "sourceIds": [
        "iom-dtm-sudan"
      ],
      "recordRef": {
        "kind": "nowcast",
        "id": "nc-sudan-idp-2026-q2"
      },
      "note": "Trend-continuation nowcast; replaced when IOM's next round publishes."
    },
    {
      "period": "End-2026 (continued conflict)",
      "date": "2026-12-31",
      "epistemicClass": "scenario",
      "evidenceStatus": "unverified-lead",
      "value": null,
      "interval": {
        "low": 8500000,
        "high": 9200000,
        "intervalMeaning": "plausible-range"
      },
      "sourceIds": [
        "iom-dtm-sudan"
      ],
      "recordRef": {
        "kind": "scenario",
        "id": "sc-sudan-idp-continued-conflict-2026-12"
      },
      "note": "Conditional path — access does not improve. Not a prediction."
    },
    {
      "period": "End-2026 (de-escalation)",
      "date": "2026-12-31",
      "epistemicClass": "scenario",
      "evidenceStatus": "unverified-lead",
      "value": null,
      "interval": {
        "low": 5500000,
        "high": 7000000,
        "intervalMeaning": "plausible-range"
      },
      "sourceIds": [
        "iom-dtm-sudan"
      ],
      "recordRef": {
        "kind": "scenario",
        "id": "sc-sudan-idp-deescalation-2026-12"
      },
      "note": "Conditional path — ceasefire enables faster returns. Not a prediction."
    }
  ],
  "competingSeries": [],
  "sourceTransitions": [],
  "definitionChanges": [],
  "missingPeriods": [
    {
      "start": "2025-02-01",
      "end": "2025-09-30",
      "reason": "not-published"
    },
    {
      "start": "2025-11-01",
      "end": "2026-02-28",
      "reason": "not-published"
    }
  ],
  "methodologyIds": [
    "sudan-idp-linear-interp",
    "sudan-idp-trend-continuation",
    "sudan-idp-scenario-bracket"
  ]
}