What the data shows
CREA's independent estimate of Russia's daily fossil-fuel export revenue peaked near €1 billion a day in 2022, then fell through the price-cap era toward roughly €500-600 million a day by 2025-2026. These are research estimates, not official Russian data, and are tracked alongside the sanctions/price-cap channel and many other factors — not a causal attribution.
Covered through April 30, 2026 · reviewed July 22, 2026.
Series
Each class is drawn with a distinct line style and marker shape (not colour alone). Vertical whiskers show uncertainty ranges. Modeled values (reconstructed / nowcast / forecast / scenario) are estimates, never reported history — see the epistemic model.
All values
| Period | Value (EUR million/day) | Class | Evidence | Range meaning | Source / method |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 (peak) | 900–1,100 EUR million/day | Reco | Provisional | plausible range | CREA — Monthly analysis of Russian fossil fuel exports and sanctions |
| 2023 (avg) | 580–720 EUR million/day | Reco | Provisional | plausible range | CREA — Monthly analysis of Russian fossil fuel exports and sanctions |
| 2024 (avg) | 520–640 EUR million/day | Reco | Provisional | plausible range | CREA — Monthly analysis of Russian fossil fuel exports and sanctions |
| 2025 (avg) | 500–600 EUR million/day | Reco | Provisional | plausible range | CREA — Monthly analysis of Russian fossil fuel exports and sanctions |
| Apr 2026 | 480–580 EUR million/day | Obse | Reported | plausible range | CREA — Monthly analysis of Russian fossil fuel exports and sanctions |
| Mid-2026 | 470–580 EUR million/day | Nowc | Provisional | plausible range | CREA — Monthly analysis of Russian fossil fuel exports and sanctions method |
Per-point notes
- 2022 (peak): CREA estimated revenue near €1bn/day at the 2022 peak. Reconstructed range.
- 2023 (avg): Price-cap-era decline. Reconstructed range.
- 2024 (avg): Reconstructed range.
- 2025 (avg): Reconstructed range.
- Apr 2026: CREA April-2026 monthly analysis (research estimate).
- Mid-2026: Nowcast pending CREA's next release.
Source & definition notes
Explicit gaps (shown as gaps, never zero-filled): 2022-01-01–2026-03-31 (estimation-feasible).
Sources
- CREA — Monthly analysis of Russian fossil fuel exports and sanctions — Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA)
Cite this page
Warconomy, “Russia fossil-fuel export revenue (CREA estimate)”, reviewed as of July 22, 2026. https://warconomy.com/data-series/russia-fossil-export-revenue.
Machine-readable: the JSON dataset and source registry. More citation formats on the citation catalog. Values are source-linked and manually maintained; not real-time.
Related
All data series · this series as JSON · epistemic model · forecasts