{
  "id": "russia-fossil-export-revenue",
  "title": "Russia fossil-fuel export revenue (CREA estimate)",
  "unit": "EUR million/day",
  "domain": "sanctions",
  "metricId": "russia-fossil-export-revenue-series",
  "metricName": "Russia fossil-fuel export revenue (CREA)",
  "subjectType": "sanctions",
  "subjectId": "russia-energy-trade",
  "summaryFinding": "CREA's independent estimate of Russia's daily fossil-fuel export revenue peaked near €1 billion a day in 2022, then fell through the price-cap era toward roughly €500-600 million a day by 2025-2026. These are research estimates, not official Russian data, and are tracked alongside the sanctions/price-cap channel and many other factors — not a causal attribution.",
  "geographicCoverage": "Russia (fossil-fuel exports, all destinations)",
  "coveredThrough": "2026-04-30",
  "lastReviewed": "2026-07-22",
  "page": "https://warconomy.com/data-series/russia-fossil-export-revenue",
  "points": [
    {
      "period": "2022 (peak)",
      "date": "2022-06-30",
      "epistemicClass": "reconstructed",
      "evidenceStatus": "provisional",
      "value": null,
      "interval": {
        "low": 900,
        "high": 1100,
        "intervalMeaning": "plausible-range"
      },
      "sourceIds": [
        "crea-russia-fossil-tracker"
      ],
      "recordRef": null,
      "note": "CREA estimated revenue near €1bn/day at the 2022 peak. Reconstructed range."
    },
    {
      "period": "2023 (avg)",
      "date": "2023-12-31",
      "epistemicClass": "reconstructed",
      "evidenceStatus": "provisional",
      "value": null,
      "interval": {
        "low": 580,
        "high": 720,
        "intervalMeaning": "plausible-range"
      },
      "sourceIds": [
        "crea-russia-fossil-tracker"
      ],
      "recordRef": null,
      "note": "Price-cap-era decline. Reconstructed range."
    },
    {
      "period": "2024 (avg)",
      "date": "2024-12-31",
      "epistemicClass": "reconstructed",
      "evidenceStatus": "provisional",
      "value": null,
      "interval": {
        "low": 520,
        "high": 640,
        "intervalMeaning": "plausible-range"
      },
      "sourceIds": [
        "crea-russia-fossil-tracker"
      ],
      "recordRef": null,
      "note": "Reconstructed range."
    },
    {
      "period": "2025 (avg)",
      "date": "2025-12-31",
      "epistemicClass": "reconstructed",
      "evidenceStatus": "provisional",
      "value": null,
      "interval": {
        "low": 500,
        "high": 600,
        "intervalMeaning": "plausible-range"
      },
      "sourceIds": [
        "crea-russia-fossil-tracker"
      ],
      "recordRef": null,
      "note": "Reconstructed range."
    },
    {
      "period": "Apr 2026",
      "date": "2026-04-30",
      "epistemicClass": "observed",
      "evidenceStatus": "reported",
      "value": null,
      "interval": {
        "low": 480,
        "high": 580,
        "intervalMeaning": "plausible-range"
      },
      "sourceIds": [
        "crea-russia-fossil-tracker"
      ],
      "recordRef": null,
      "note": "CREA April-2026 monthly analysis (research estimate)."
    },
    {
      "period": "Mid-2026",
      "date": "2026-07-31",
      "epistemicClass": "nowcast",
      "evidenceStatus": "provisional",
      "value": null,
      "interval": {
        "low": 470,
        "high": 580,
        "intervalMeaning": "plausible-range"
      },
      "sourceIds": [
        "crea-russia-fossil-tracker"
      ],
      "recordRef": {
        "kind": "nowcast",
        "id": "nc-russia-fossil-revenue-2026-mid"
      },
      "note": "Nowcast pending CREA's next release."
    }
  ],
  "competingSeries": [],
  "sourceTransitions": [],
  "definitionChanges": [],
  "missingPeriods": [
    {
      "start": "2022-01-01",
      "end": "2026-03-31",
      "reason": "estimation-feasible"
    }
  ],
  "methodologyIds": [
    "anchor-interpolation-v1",
    "proxy-nowcast-v1"
  ]
}