What the data shows
Before the 2026 crisis the Strait of Hormuz saw well over 100 ship transits a day. After the 17-18 June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding, independent trackers reported a partial recovery to roughly 38-43 daily transits; renewed vessel strikes were then reported from 7 July 2026. This series is deliberately range-only and weak-sourced — no Tier-A body publishes a consolidated verified daily-transit count, and Warconomy is not a vessel tracker. (The much larger ~20 million bbl/day oil-transit metric is tracked separately from stronger EIA data.)
Covered through July 16, 2026 · reviewed July 22, 2026.
Series
Each class is drawn with a distinct line style and marker shape (not colour alone). Vertical whiskers show uncertainty ranges. Modeled values (reconstructed / nowcast / forecast / scenario) are estimates, never reported history — see the epistemic model.
All values
| Period | Value (ship transits/day) | Class | Evidence | Range meaning | Source / method |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pre-crisis (early 2026) | 100–115 ship transits/day | Clai | Unverified | plausible range | Open-source Strait of Hormuz transit tracking and news aggregation |
| Post-MoU (late June 2026) | 38–43 ship transits/day | Clai | Unverified | plausible range | Open-source Strait of Hormuz transit tracking and news aggregation |
| July 2026 | 25–45 ship transits/day | Nowc | Unverified | plausible range | Open-source Strait of Hormuz transit tracking and news aggregation method |
| End-2026 (de-escalation) | 70–110 ship transits/day | Scen | Unverified | plausible range | Open-source Strait of Hormuz transit tracking and news aggregation method |
| End-2026 (renewed disruption) | 10–40 ship transits/day | Scen | Unverified | plausible range | Open-source Strait of Hormuz transit tracking and news aggregation method |
Per-point notes
- Pre-crisis (early 2026): Reported pre-crisis level (>100 daily transits). Weak-sourced.
- Post-MoU (late June 2026): Reported recovery to 38-43 daily transits (attributed to Kpler). Weak-sourced.
- July 2026: Nowcast amid renewed strikes reported from 7 July 2026.
- End-2026 (de-escalation): Conditional path — understanding holds.
- End-2026 (renewed disruption): Conditional path — strikes broaden.
Source & definition notes
Explicit gaps (shown as gaps, never zero-filled): 2026-06-16–2026-06-17 (source-not-located).
Sources
- Open-source Strait of Hormuz transit tracking and news aggregation — Independent transit-tracking sites and major news wires
Cite this page
Warconomy, “Strait of Hormuz daily ship transits (2026 crisis)”, reviewed as of July 22, 2026. https://warconomy.com/data-series/hormuz-daily-transits.
Machine-readable: the JSON dataset and source registry. More citation formats on the citation catalog. Values are source-linked and manually maintained; not real-time.
Related
All data series · this series as JSON · epistemic model · forecasts