{
  "id": "hormuz-daily-transits",
  "title": "Strait of Hormuz daily ship transits (2026 crisis)",
  "unit": "ship transits/day",
  "domain": "shipping",
  "metricId": "hormuz-daily-transits",
  "metricName": "Strait of Hormuz daily ship transits",
  "subjectType": "chokepoint",
  "subjectId": "strait-of-hormuz",
  "summaryFinding": "Before the 2026 crisis the Strait of Hormuz saw well over 100 ship transits a day. After the 17-18 June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding, independent trackers reported a partial recovery to roughly 38-43 daily transits; renewed vessel strikes were then reported from 7 July 2026. This series is deliberately range-only and weak-sourced — no Tier-A body publishes a consolidated verified daily-transit count, and Warconomy is not a vessel tracker. (The much larger ~20 million bbl/day oil-transit metric is tracked separately from stronger EIA data.)",
  "geographicCoverage": "Strait of Hormuz",
  "coveredThrough": "2026-07-16",
  "lastReviewed": "2026-07-22",
  "page": "https://warconomy.com/data-series/hormuz-daily-transits",
  "points": [
    {
      "period": "Pre-crisis (early 2026)",
      "date": "2026-06-15",
      "epistemicClass": "claim",
      "evidenceStatus": "unverified-lead",
      "value": null,
      "interval": {
        "low": 100,
        "high": 115,
        "intervalMeaning": "plausible-range"
      },
      "sourceIds": [
        "hormuz-crisis-tracking"
      ],
      "recordRef": null,
      "note": "Reported pre-crisis level (>100 daily transits). Weak-sourced."
    },
    {
      "period": "Post-MoU (late June 2026)",
      "date": "2026-06-30",
      "epistemicClass": "claim",
      "evidenceStatus": "unverified-lead",
      "value": null,
      "interval": {
        "low": 38,
        "high": 43,
        "intervalMeaning": "plausible-range"
      },
      "sourceIds": [
        "hormuz-crisis-tracking"
      ],
      "recordRef": null,
      "note": "Reported recovery to 38-43 daily transits (attributed to Kpler). Weak-sourced."
    },
    {
      "period": "July 2026",
      "date": "2026-07-31",
      "epistemicClass": "nowcast",
      "evidenceStatus": "unverified-lead",
      "value": null,
      "interval": {
        "low": 25,
        "high": 45,
        "intervalMeaning": "plausible-range"
      },
      "sourceIds": [
        "hormuz-crisis-tracking"
      ],
      "recordRef": {
        "kind": "nowcast",
        "id": "nc-hormuz-2026-jul"
      },
      "note": "Nowcast amid renewed strikes reported from 7 July 2026."
    },
    {
      "period": "End-2026 (de-escalation)",
      "date": "2026-12-31",
      "epistemicClass": "scenario",
      "evidenceStatus": "unverified-lead",
      "value": null,
      "interval": {
        "low": 70,
        "high": 110,
        "intervalMeaning": "plausible-range"
      },
      "sourceIds": [
        "hormuz-crisis-tracking"
      ],
      "recordRef": {
        "kind": "scenario",
        "id": "sc-hormuz-normalization-2026"
      },
      "note": "Conditional path — understanding holds."
    },
    {
      "period": "End-2026 (renewed disruption)",
      "date": "2026-12-31",
      "epistemicClass": "scenario",
      "evidenceStatus": "unverified-lead",
      "value": null,
      "interval": {
        "low": 10,
        "high": 40,
        "intervalMeaning": "plausible-range"
      },
      "sourceIds": [
        "hormuz-crisis-tracking"
      ],
      "recordRef": {
        "kind": "scenario",
        "id": "sc-hormuz-closure-risk-2026"
      },
      "note": "Conditional path — strikes broaden."
    }
  ],
  "competingSeries": [],
  "sourceTransitions": [],
  "definitionChanges": [],
  "missingPeriods": [
    {
      "start": "2026-06-16",
      "end": "2026-06-17",
      "reason": "source-not-located"
    }
  ],
  "methodologyIds": [
    "proxy-nowcast-v1",
    "conditional-scenario-v1"
  ]
}