What the data shows
The EU's cumulative count of listed Russian 'shadow-fleet' vessels climbed package by package to an officially-reported 632 at the 20th sanctions package (23 April 2026). That legal-designation count is far smaller than researchers' estimates of the TOTAL shadow fleet (many hundreds to well over a thousand tankers depending on definition) — the two are shown separately because a designation count is not a fleet size.
Covered through April 23, 2026 · reviewed July 22, 2026.
Series
Each class is drawn with a distinct line style and marker shape (not colour alone). Vertical whiskers show uncertainty ranges. Modeled values (reconstructed / nowcast / forecast / scenario) are estimates, never reported history — see the epistemic model.
All values
| Period | Value (vessels) | Class | Evidence | Range meaning | Source / method |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| End-2024 | 50–100 vessels | Reco | Provisional | documented floor–ceiling | European Commission / Council of the EU — 20th sanctions package (shadow-fleet vessel listings) |
| Mid-2025 | 250–400 vessels | Reco | Provisional | documented floor–ceiling | European Commission / Council of the EU — 20th sanctions package (shadow-fleet vessel listings) method |
| Before 20th package | 597 vessels | Reco | Reported | point | European Commission / Council of the EU — 20th sanctions package (shadow-fleet vessel listings) |
| 20th package (Apr 2026) | 632 vessels | Obse | Reported | point | European Commission / Council of the EU — 20th sanctions package (shadow-fleet vessel listings) |
| Mid-2026 | 632–700 vessels | Nowc | Provisional | documented floor–ceiling | Council of the European Union — Russia sanctions decisions and press releases method |
Per-point notes
- End-2024: Early EU listings (14th-15th packages). Reconstructed floor.
- Mid-2025: Reconstructed cumulative after mid-2025 packages.
- Before 20th package: Implied pre-20th cumulative (632 − 46 added + 11 delisted), per the EU's own package description.
- 20th package (Apr 2026): Officially-reported cumulative total at the 20th package.
- Mid-2026: Nowcast allowing for interim listings and a possible 21st package.
Competing estimates
Shown alongside — never averaged into a single line, because they measure different things or use different methods.
Estimated TOTAL shadow-fleet size (research estimate)
Independent research (CREA and others) estimates the total 'shadow'/'dark' tanker fleet carrying Russian oil at many hundreds to well over a thousand vessels, depending on definition and period — much larger than the EU-listed subset, and a fundamentally different measure (fleet size vs. legal designations). A weaker, methodology-dependent estimate, shown for context, never as the legal count.
- 2023-2026 (estimate): 600–1,400 vessels (CREA — Shedding light on shadow tankers)
Source & definition notes
Explicit gaps (shown as gaps, never zero-filled): 2024-06-01–2025-12-31 (not-published).
Sources
- European Commission / Council of the EU — 20th sanctions package (shadow-fleet vessel listings) — European Commission
- Council of the European Union — Russia sanctions decisions and press releases — Council of the European Union
- CREA — Shedding light on shadow tankers — Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA)
- CREA — Monthly analysis of Russian fossil fuel exports and sanctions — Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA)
Cite this page
Warconomy, “EU-listed Russian shadow-fleet vessels (cumulative)”, reviewed as of July 22, 2026. https://warconomy.com/data-series/eu-shadow-fleet-listed-vessels.
Machine-readable: the JSON dataset and source registry. More citation formats on the citation catalog. Values are source-linked and manually maintained; not real-time.
Related
All data series · this series as JSON · epistemic model · forecasts