{
  "id": "eu-shadow-fleet-listed-vessels",
  "title": "EU-listed Russian shadow-fleet vessels (cumulative)",
  "unit": "vessels",
  "domain": "sanctions",
  "metricId": "eu-shadow-fleet-listed-vessels",
  "metricName": "EU-listed Russian shadow-fleet vessels (cumulative)",
  "subjectType": "sanctions",
  "subjectId": "shadow-fleet-shipping-insurance",
  "summaryFinding": "The EU's cumulative count of listed Russian 'shadow-fleet' vessels climbed package by package to an officially-reported 632 at the 20th sanctions package (23 April 2026). That legal-designation count is far smaller than researchers' estimates of the TOTAL shadow fleet (many hundreds to well over a thousand tankers depending on definition) — the two are shown separately because a designation count is not a fleet size.",
  "geographicCoverage": "European Union vessel listings (port-access and maritime-service bans)",
  "coveredThrough": "2026-04-23",
  "lastReviewed": "2026-07-22",
  "page": "https://warconomy.com/data-series/eu-shadow-fleet-listed-vessels",
  "points": [
    {
      "period": "End-2024",
      "date": "2024-12-31",
      "epistemicClass": "reconstructed",
      "evidenceStatus": "provisional",
      "value": null,
      "interval": {
        "low": 50,
        "high": 100,
        "intervalMeaning": "min-max-bound"
      },
      "sourceIds": [
        "eu-council-shadow-fleet"
      ],
      "recordRef": null,
      "note": "Early EU listings (14th-15th packages). Reconstructed floor."
    },
    {
      "period": "Mid-2025",
      "date": "2025-06-30",
      "epistemicClass": "reconstructed",
      "evidenceStatus": "provisional",
      "value": null,
      "interval": {
        "low": 250,
        "high": 400,
        "intervalMeaning": "min-max-bound"
      },
      "sourceIds": [
        "eu-council-shadow-fleet"
      ],
      "recordRef": {
        "kind": "historical-estimate",
        "id": "he-eu-shadow-fleet-2024-25"
      },
      "note": "Reconstructed cumulative after mid-2025 packages."
    },
    {
      "period": "Before 20th package",
      "date": "2026-03-31",
      "epistemicClass": "reconstructed",
      "evidenceStatus": "reported",
      "value": 597,
      "interval": null,
      "sourceIds": [
        "eu-council-shadow-fleet"
      ],
      "recordRef": null,
      "note": "Implied pre-20th cumulative (632 − 46 added + 11 delisted), per the EU's own package description."
    },
    {
      "period": "20th package (Apr 2026)",
      "date": "2026-04-23",
      "epistemicClass": "observed",
      "evidenceStatus": "reported",
      "value": 632,
      "interval": null,
      "sourceIds": [
        "eu-council-shadow-fleet"
      ],
      "recordRef": null,
      "note": "Officially-reported cumulative total at the 20th package."
    },
    {
      "period": "Mid-2026",
      "date": "2026-07-31",
      "epistemicClass": "nowcast",
      "evidenceStatus": "provisional",
      "value": null,
      "interval": {
        "low": 632,
        "high": 700,
        "intervalMeaning": "min-max-bound"
      },
      "sourceIds": [
        "eu-council-sanctions"
      ],
      "recordRef": {
        "kind": "nowcast",
        "id": "nc-eu-shadow-fleet-2026-mid"
      },
      "note": "Nowcast allowing for interim listings and a possible 21st package."
    }
  ],
  "competingSeries": [
    {
      "label": "Estimated TOTAL shadow-fleet size (research estimate)",
      "note": "Independent research (CREA and others) estimates the total 'shadow'/'dark' tanker fleet carrying Russian oil at many hundreds to well over a thousand vessels, depending on definition and period — much larger than the EU-listed subset, and a fundamentally different measure (fleet size vs. legal designations). A weaker, methodology-dependent estimate, shown for context, never as the legal count.",
      "sourceIds": [
        "crea-shadow-tankers",
        "crea-russia-fossil-tracker"
      ],
      "points": [
        {
          "period": "2023-2026 (estimate)",
          "date": "2026-01-01",
          "epistemicClass": "claim",
          "evidenceStatus": "disputed",
          "value": null,
          "interval": {
            "low": 600,
            "high": 1400,
            "intervalMeaning": "plausible-range"
          },
          "sourceIds": [
            "crea-shadow-tankers"
          ],
          "recordRef": null,
          "note": "Estimated total shadow-fleet size; varies widely by definition."
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "sourceTransitions": [],
  "definitionChanges": [],
  "missingPeriods": [
    {
      "start": "2024-06-01",
      "end": "2025-12-31",
      "reason": "not-published"
    }
  ],
  "methodologyIds": [
    "step-series-reconstruction-v1",
    "proxy-nowcast-v1"
  ]
}