What the data shows
Brent crude averaged around $100/bbl in 2022, eased to the low-$80s in 2023-2024, spiked briefly during the June-2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis, then fell back sharply after the 18 June 2026 U.S.-Iran understanding reopened the strait. The EIA's own Short-Term Energy Outlook — shown here as EIA's forecast, not Warconomy's — cut its 2026 outlook from $95.39/bbl (June STEO) to $81.91/bbl (July STEO), with $74.03 for 3Q2026 and $70.00 for 4Q2026. Both vintages are preserved side by side.
Covered through July 1, 2026 · reviewed July 22, 2026.
Series
Each class is drawn with a distinct line style and marker shape (not colour alone). Vertical whiskers show uncertainty ranges. Modeled values (reconstructed / nowcast / forecast / scenario) are estimates, never reported history — see the epistemic model.
All values
| Period | Value (USD/bbl (nominal)) | Class | Evidence | Range meaning | Source / method |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 (avg) | 101 USD/bbl (nominal) | Obse | Reported | point | EIA — Europe Brent Spot Price FOB (monthly) |
| 2023 (avg) | 82 USD/bbl (nominal) | Obse | Reported | point | EIA — Europe Brent Spot Price FOB (monthly) |
| 2024 (avg) | 81 USD/bbl (nominal) | Obse | Reported | point | EIA — Europe Brent Spot Price FOB (monthly) |
| 1H 2025 | 72–82 USD/bbl (nominal) | Reco | Provisional | plausible range | EIA — Spot Prices for Crude Oil (Brent & WTI) |
| Jun 2026 (Hormuz spike) | 78–95 USD/bbl (nominal) | Obse | Reported | plausible range | EIA — Spot Prices for Crude Oil (Brent & WTI); Open-source Strait of Hormuz transit tracking and news aggregation |
| 3Q2026 (EIA forecast) | 74.03 USD/bbl (nominal) | Fore | Reported | point | EIA — Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) |
| 4Q2026 (EIA forecast) | 70 USD/bbl (nominal) | Fore | Reported | point | EIA — Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) |
| H2 2026 (disruption scenario) | 90–120 USD/bbl (nominal) | Scen | Unverified | plausible range | EIA — Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO); Open-source Strait of Hormuz transit tracking and news aggregation method |
| H2 2026 (normalization scenario) | 62–78 USD/bbl (nominal) | Scen | Unverified | plausible range | EIA — Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) method |
Per-point notes
- 2022 (avg): Annual average; Brent spiked above $120 in mid-2022 after the invasion.
- 2023 (avg): Annual average.
- 2024 (avg): Annual average.
- 1H 2025: Reconstructed first-half 2025 range.
- Jun 2026 (Hormuz spike): Brief spike during the Hormuz crisis, then a sharp fall after the 18 June understanding.
- 3Q2026 (EIA forecast): EIA's OWN July-2026 STEO forecast — an external institutional projection, not a Warconomy model.
- 4Q2026 (EIA forecast): EIA's OWN July-2026 STEO forecast.
- H2 2026 (disruption scenario): Warconomy conditional path — renewed Gulf disruption.
- H2 2026 (normalization scenario): Warconomy conditional path — continued normalization.
Competing estimates
Shown alongside — never averaged into a single line, because they measure different things or use different methods.
EIA June-2026 STEO vintage (superseded by the July STEO)
The EIA's OWN prior-month forecast, preserved as a vintage: the June STEO put 2026 Brent at $95.39/bbl before the Hormuz de-escalation prompted the July STEO's large downward revision to $81.91/bbl. Vintages are kept side by side, not overwritten.
- 2026 avg (June STEO): 95.39 USD/bbl (nominal) (EIA — Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO))
Sources
- EIA — Europe Brent Spot Price FOB (monthly) — U.S. Energy Information Administration
- EIA — Spot Prices for Crude Oil (Brent & WTI) — U.S. Energy Information Administration
- Open-source Strait of Hormuz transit tracking and news aggregation — Independent transit-tracking sites and major news wires
- EIA — Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) — U.S. Energy Information Administration
Cite this page
Warconomy, “Brent crude monthly spot price”, reviewed as of July 22, 2026. https://warconomy.com/data-series/brent-crude-monthly.
Machine-readable: the JSON dataset and source registry. More citation formats on the citation catalog. Values are source-linked and manually maintained; not real-time.
Related
All data series · this series as JSON · epistemic model · forecasts