{
  "id": "brent-crude-monthly",
  "title": "Brent crude monthly spot price",
  "unit": "USD/bbl (nominal)",
  "domain": "energy",
  "metricId": "brent-crude-monthly",
  "metricName": "Brent crude monthly spot price",
  "subjectType": "commodity",
  "subjectId": "oil-benchmarks",
  "summaryFinding": "Brent crude averaged around $100/bbl in 2022, eased to the low-$80s in 2023-2024, spiked briefly during the June-2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis, then fell back sharply after the 18 June 2026 U.S.-Iran understanding reopened the strait. The EIA's own Short-Term Energy Outlook — shown here as EIA's forecast, not Warconomy's — cut its 2026 outlook from $95.39/bbl (June STEO) to $81.91/bbl (July STEO), with $74.03 for 3Q2026 and $70.00 for 4Q2026. Both vintages are preserved side by side.",
  "geographicCoverage": "Global (Europe Brent benchmark)",
  "coveredThrough": "2026-07-01",
  "lastReviewed": "2026-07-22",
  "page": "https://warconomy.com/data-series/brent-crude-monthly",
  "points": [
    {
      "period": "2022 (avg)",
      "date": "2022-12-31",
      "epistemicClass": "observed",
      "evidenceStatus": "reported",
      "value": 101,
      "interval": null,
      "sourceIds": [
        "eia-brent"
      ],
      "recordRef": null,
      "note": "Annual average; Brent spiked above $120 in mid-2022 after the invasion."
    },
    {
      "period": "2023 (avg)",
      "date": "2023-12-31",
      "epistemicClass": "observed",
      "evidenceStatus": "reported",
      "value": 82,
      "interval": null,
      "sourceIds": [
        "eia-brent"
      ],
      "recordRef": null,
      "note": "Annual average."
    },
    {
      "period": "2024 (avg)",
      "date": "2024-12-31",
      "epistemicClass": "observed",
      "evidenceStatus": "reported",
      "value": 81,
      "interval": null,
      "sourceIds": [
        "eia-brent"
      ],
      "recordRef": null,
      "note": "Annual average."
    },
    {
      "period": "1H 2025",
      "date": "2025-06-30",
      "epistemicClass": "reconstructed",
      "evidenceStatus": "provisional",
      "value": null,
      "interval": {
        "low": 72,
        "high": 82,
        "intervalMeaning": "plausible-range"
      },
      "sourceIds": [
        "eia-spot-prices"
      ],
      "recordRef": null,
      "note": "Reconstructed first-half 2025 range."
    },
    {
      "period": "Jun 2026 (Hormuz spike)",
      "date": "2026-06-30",
      "epistemicClass": "observed",
      "evidenceStatus": "reported",
      "value": null,
      "interval": {
        "low": 78,
        "high": 95,
        "intervalMeaning": "plausible-range"
      },
      "sourceIds": [
        "eia-spot-prices",
        "hormuz-crisis-tracking"
      ],
      "recordRef": null,
      "note": "Brief spike during the Hormuz crisis, then a sharp fall after the 18 June understanding."
    },
    {
      "period": "3Q2026 (EIA forecast)",
      "date": "2026-09-30",
      "epistemicClass": "forecast",
      "evidenceStatus": "reported",
      "value": 74.03,
      "interval": null,
      "sourceIds": [
        "eia-steo"
      ],
      "recordRef": null,
      "note": "EIA's OWN July-2026 STEO forecast — an external institutional projection, not a Warconomy model."
    },
    {
      "period": "4Q2026 (EIA forecast)",
      "date": "2026-12-31",
      "epistemicClass": "forecast",
      "evidenceStatus": "reported",
      "value": 70,
      "interval": null,
      "sourceIds": [
        "eia-steo"
      ],
      "recordRef": null,
      "note": "EIA's OWN July-2026 STEO forecast."
    },
    {
      "period": "H2 2026 (disruption scenario)",
      "date": "2026-12-31",
      "epistemicClass": "scenario",
      "evidenceStatus": "unverified-lead",
      "value": null,
      "interval": {
        "low": 90,
        "high": 120,
        "intervalMeaning": "plausible-range"
      },
      "sourceIds": [
        "eia-steo",
        "hormuz-crisis-tracking"
      ],
      "recordRef": {
        "kind": "scenario",
        "id": "sc-brent-disruption-2026"
      },
      "note": "Warconomy conditional path — renewed Gulf disruption."
    },
    {
      "period": "H2 2026 (normalization scenario)",
      "date": "2026-12-31",
      "epistemicClass": "scenario",
      "evidenceStatus": "unverified-lead",
      "value": null,
      "interval": {
        "low": 62,
        "high": 78,
        "intervalMeaning": "plausible-range"
      },
      "sourceIds": [
        "eia-steo"
      ],
      "recordRef": {
        "kind": "scenario",
        "id": "sc-brent-normalization-2026"
      },
      "note": "Warconomy conditional path — continued normalization."
    }
  ],
  "competingSeries": [
    {
      "label": "EIA June-2026 STEO vintage (superseded by the July STEO)",
      "note": "The EIA's OWN prior-month forecast, preserved as a vintage: the June STEO put 2026 Brent at $95.39/bbl before the Hormuz de-escalation prompted the July STEO's large downward revision to $81.91/bbl. Vintages are kept side by side, not overwritten.",
      "sourceIds": [
        "eia-steo"
      ],
      "points": [
        {
          "period": "2026 avg (June STEO)",
          "date": "2026-06-30",
          "epistemicClass": "forecast",
          "evidenceStatus": "reported",
          "value": 95.39,
          "interval": null,
          "sourceIds": [
            "eia-steo"
          ],
          "recordRef": null,
          "note": "EIA June-2026 STEO 2026 annual-average Brent forecast, since revised down."
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "sourceTransitions": [],
  "definitionChanges": [],
  "missingPeriods": [],
  "methodologyIds": [
    "anchor-interpolation-v1",
    "external-forecast-passthrough-v1",
    "conditional-scenario-v1"
  ]
}