What the data shows
Bab el-Mandeb carried on the order of 6 million barrels a day of oil and petroleum liquids before the late-2023 Red Sea disruption, then fell sharply as tankers rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope. EIA's quarterly figures show a partial recovery from 3.7 (1Q2025) to 4.3 (2Q2025) million bbl/day. Normalization and continued-disruption scenarios bracket the rest of 2026.
Covered through June 30, 2025 · reviewed July 22, 2026.
Series
Each class is drawn with a distinct line style and marker shape (not colour alone). Vertical whiskers show uncertainty ranges. Modeled values (reconstructed / nowcast / forecast / scenario) are estimates, never reported history — see the epistemic model.
All values
| Period | Value (million bbl/day) | Class | Evidence | Range meaning | Source / method |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 (baseline) | 5.8–6.6 million bbl/day | Reco | Corroborated | plausible range | EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook — energy security / maritime oil chokepoints; U.S. Energy Information Administration method |
| 2024 (collapse) | 3–4.2 million bbl/day | Reco | Provisional | plausible range | EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook — energy security / maritime oil chokepoints method |
| 1Q2025 | 3.7 million bbl/day | Obse | Reported | point | EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook — energy security / maritime oil chokepoints |
| 2Q2025 | 4.3 million bbl/day | Obse | Reported | point | EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook — energy security / maritime oil chokepoints |
| H1 2026 | 4–5.2 million bbl/day | Nowc | Provisional | plausible range | EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook — energy security / maritime oil chokepoints method |
| End-2026 (normalization) | 5.5–6.5 million bbl/day | Scen | Unverified | plausible range | EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook — energy security / maritime oil chokepoints method |
| End-2026 (continued disruption) | 3.3–4.5 million bbl/day | Scen | Unverified | plausible range | EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook — energy security / maritime oil chokepoints method |
Per-point notes
- 2023 (baseline): Reconstructed pre-disruption level (~6 mb/d).
- 2024 (collapse): Reconstructed 2024 collapse.
- 1Q2025: EIA STEO chokepoint table.
- 2Q2025: EIA STEO chokepoint table.
- H1 2026: Nowcast pending EIA's next quarters.
- End-2026 (normalization): Conditional path — security stabilises.
- End-2026 (continued disruption): Conditional path — attacks continue.
Source & definition notes
Explicit gaps (shown as gaps, never zero-filled): 2023-01-01–2024-12-31 (not-published).
Sources
- EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook — energy security / maritime oil chokepoints — U.S. Energy Information Administration
- U.S. Energy Information Administration — U.S. Energy Information Administration
Cite this page
Warconomy, “Bab el-Mandeb oil & petroleum-liquids transit”, reviewed as of July 22, 2026. https://warconomy.com/data-series/bab-el-mandeb-oil-transit.
Machine-readable: the JSON dataset and source registry. More citation formats on the citation catalog. Values are source-linked and manually maintained; not real-time.
Related
All data series · this series as JSON · epistemic model · forecasts