{
  "id": "bab-el-mandeb-oil-transit",
  "title": "Bab el-Mandeb oil & petroleum-liquids transit",
  "unit": "million bbl/day",
  "domain": "shipping",
  "metricId": "bab-el-mandeb-oil-transit",
  "metricName": "Bab el-Mandeb oil & petroleum-liquids transit",
  "subjectType": "chokepoint",
  "subjectId": "bab-el-mandeb",
  "summaryFinding": "Bab el-Mandeb carried on the order of 6 million barrels a day of oil and petroleum liquids before the late-2023 Red Sea disruption, then fell sharply as tankers rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope. EIA's quarterly figures show a partial recovery from 3.7 (1Q2025) to 4.3 (2Q2025) million bbl/day. Normalization and continued-disruption scenarios bracket the rest of 2026.",
  "geographicCoverage": "Bab el-Mandeb strait (southern Red Sea gateway)",
  "coveredThrough": "2025-06-30",
  "lastReviewed": "2026-07-22",
  "page": "https://warconomy.com/data-series/bab-el-mandeb-oil-transit",
  "points": [
    {
      "period": "2023 (baseline)",
      "date": "2023-12-31",
      "epistemicClass": "reconstructed",
      "evidenceStatus": "corroborated",
      "value": null,
      "interval": {
        "low": 5.8,
        "high": 6.6,
        "intervalMeaning": "plausible-range"
      },
      "sourceIds": [
        "eia-steo-chokepoints",
        "eia"
      ],
      "recordRef": {
        "kind": "historical-estimate",
        "id": "he-babelmandeb-2023-baseline"
      },
      "note": "Reconstructed pre-disruption level (~6 mb/d)."
    },
    {
      "period": "2024 (collapse)",
      "date": "2024-12-31",
      "epistemicClass": "reconstructed",
      "evidenceStatus": "provisional",
      "value": null,
      "interval": {
        "low": 3,
        "high": 4.2,
        "intervalMeaning": "plausible-range"
      },
      "sourceIds": [
        "eia-steo-chokepoints"
      ],
      "recordRef": {
        "kind": "historical-estimate",
        "id": "he-babelmandeb-2024-collapse"
      },
      "note": "Reconstructed 2024 collapse."
    },
    {
      "period": "1Q2025",
      "date": "2025-03-31",
      "epistemicClass": "observed",
      "evidenceStatus": "reported",
      "value": 3.7,
      "interval": null,
      "sourceIds": [
        "eia-steo-chokepoints"
      ],
      "recordRef": null,
      "note": "EIA STEO chokepoint table."
    },
    {
      "period": "2Q2025",
      "date": "2025-06-30",
      "epistemicClass": "observed",
      "evidenceStatus": "reported",
      "value": 4.3,
      "interval": null,
      "sourceIds": [
        "eia-steo-chokepoints"
      ],
      "recordRef": null,
      "note": "EIA STEO chokepoint table."
    },
    {
      "period": "H1 2026",
      "date": "2026-06-30",
      "epistemicClass": "nowcast",
      "evidenceStatus": "provisional",
      "value": null,
      "interval": {
        "low": 4,
        "high": 5.2,
        "intervalMeaning": "plausible-range"
      },
      "sourceIds": [
        "eia-steo-chokepoints"
      ],
      "recordRef": {
        "kind": "nowcast",
        "id": "nc-babelmandeb-2026"
      },
      "note": "Nowcast pending EIA's next quarters."
    },
    {
      "period": "End-2026 (normalization)",
      "date": "2026-12-31",
      "epistemicClass": "scenario",
      "evidenceStatus": "unverified-lead",
      "value": null,
      "interval": {
        "low": 5.5,
        "high": 6.5,
        "intervalMeaning": "plausible-range"
      },
      "sourceIds": [
        "eia-steo-chokepoints"
      ],
      "recordRef": {
        "kind": "scenario",
        "id": "sc-babelmandeb-normalization-2026"
      },
      "note": "Conditional path — security stabilises."
    },
    {
      "period": "End-2026 (continued disruption)",
      "date": "2026-12-31",
      "epistemicClass": "scenario",
      "evidenceStatus": "unverified-lead",
      "value": null,
      "interval": {
        "low": 3.3,
        "high": 4.5,
        "intervalMeaning": "plausible-range"
      },
      "sourceIds": [
        "eia-steo-chokepoints"
      ],
      "recordRef": {
        "kind": "scenario",
        "id": "sc-babelmandeb-disruption-2026"
      },
      "note": "Conditional path — attacks continue."
    }
  ],
  "competingSeries": [],
  "sourceTransitions": [],
  "definitionChanges": [],
  "missingPeriods": [
    {
      "start": "2023-01-01",
      "end": "2024-12-31",
      "reason": "not-published"
    }
  ],
  "methodologyIds": [
    "trend-backcast-v1",
    "anchor-interpolation-v1",
    "proxy-nowcast-v1",
    "conditional-scenario-v1"
  ]
}