A watch list for the 8 source-gated values, each with its official URL, expected cadence, the last period on file, and the exact manual next action. 5 have an official page where availability ('a newer release appears to exist') can be checked without reading a value; the rest are PDF-only, inaccessible, or have no cumulative figure and need a manual review. Nothing here is ever auto-promoted.
- Detect-only: shows what may have a new release; never extracts a value.
- 5 of 8 have a checkable official page; others need manual review.
- Each row links to its source-packet template for the actual value.
- Machine-readable at /operator/source-watch/data.json.
Watch list
| Source value | Cadence | Last known | Status | Check? | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CREA May 2026 Russian fossil-fuel export revenue ↗ | Monthly (~6 weeks in arrears) | April 2026 (published 2026-06-01) | Manual review needed | availability | low |
| EU 21st sanctions package — shadow-fleet vessel count ↗ | Irregular (per sanctions package) | 20th package, 632 vessels (2026-04-23) | Manual review needed | availability | medium |
| FAO Food Price Index — next release after May 2026 ↗ | Monthly (early the following month) | May 2026 | Manual review needed | availability | low |
| Longer SIPRI / NATO defense-spending series ↗ | Annual (+ periodic fact sheets) | SIPRI 2025 release | Manual review needed | availability | low |
| Suez / Red Sea official transit metric ↗ | Monthly/annual (PDF) | UNCTAD Feb-2024 rapid assessment | Source inaccessible (e.g. 403 / PDF-only) | manual | medium |
| World Bank Pink Sheet — wheat / fertilizer / gas ↗ | Monthly | Index % changes only on HTML; levels are XLSX/PDF | Manual review needed | availability | medium |
| Black Sea grain export volumes ↗ | Monthly (no single official corridor series since 2023) | Sample row (BSGI ended 2023) | Source inaccessible (e.g. 403 / PDF-only) | manual | high |
| OFAC cumulative shadow-fleet vessel count ↗ | Irregular (per-action designations; no cumulative total) | No official cumulative figure | No automated check configured | manual | high |
Per-source next action
CREA May 2026 Russian fossil-fuel export revenue
- Expected unit: EUR million/day · Cadence: Monthly (~6 weeks in arrears)
- Next manual action: When the May 2026 page is published, read the headline figure and send it back; Claude promotes it.
- Why not auto-promoted: The May 2026 analysis is not published yet; CREA publishes ~6 weeks in arrears (April 2026 is current). There is no new value to read.
- To supply the value: source packet — needs a human-supplied, validated value.
EU 21st sanctions package — shadow-fleet vessel count
- Expected unit: Vessels (cumulative count) · Cadence: Irregular (per sanctions package)
- Next manual action: When the next EU package is adopted, read the cumulative vessel total from the press release and send it back.
- Why not auto-promoted: No 21st package is published yet; the 20th package (632 vessels, 23 April 2026) is current and was re-verified.
- To supply the value: source packet — needs a human-supplied, validated value.
FAO Food Price Index — next release after May 2026
- Expected unit: Index (2014–2016 = 100) · Cadence: Monthly (early the following month)
- Next manual action: When the next FAO release publishes, copy the headline + sub-indices and send them back.
- Why not auto-promoted: May 2026 is the latest published month; the next release is not out yet. The current values were re-verified and stand.
- To supply the value: source packet — needs a human-supplied, validated value.
Longer SIPRI / NATO defense-spending series
- Expected unit: USD billion (state current vs constant USD basis) · Cadence: Annual (+ periodic fact sheets)
- Next manual action: Read the SIPRI fact-sheet PDF for the wanted country-years, confirm the basis, and send them back.
- Why not auto-promoted: Beyond the latest press-release subset, country-year values are in the SIPRI fact-sheet PDF; basis (current vs constant USD) must be matched exactly.
- To supply the value: source packet — needs a human-supplied, validated value.
Suez / Red Sea official transit metric
- Expected unit: Transits (count) · net tonnage (million tonnes) · or revenue (USD) · Cadence: Monthly/annual (PDF)
- Next manual action: Download the SCA navigation report PDF, read one transit metric, and send it back with its page/table reference.
- Why not auto-promoted: UNCTAD's page returns 403; SCA statistics are downloadable PDFs; container freight indices are paywalled. No directly-readable newer figure was obtainable.
- To supply the value: source packet — needs a human-supplied, validated value.
World Bank Pink Sheet — wheat / fertilizer / gas
- Expected unit: USD/mt (wheat, fertilizer) · USD/mmbtu (gas) · Cadence: Monthly
- Next manual action: Open the Pink Sheet XLSX, read the wheat/fertilizer/gas cells, and send the values + cell references back.
- Why not auto-promoted: Exact USD levels are only in the downloadable XLSX/PDF (binary), not in readable HTML; parsing a binary file is out of scope.
- To supply the value: source packet — needs a human-supplied, validated value.
Black Sea grain export volumes
- Expected unit: Million tonnes / month · Cadence: Monthly (no single official corridor series since 2023)
- Next manual action: Locate an official monthly corridor-tonnage series in readable form, then send one month's value back.
- Why not auto-promoted: No cleanly-transcribable official monthly tonnage in accessible HTML; the BSGI ended in 2023. The sample row was not promoted (no fabrication).
- To supply the value: source packet — needs a human-supplied, validated value.
OFAC cumulative shadow-fleet vessel count
- Expected unit: Vessels (cumulative count) · Cadence: Irregular (per-action designations; no cumulative total)
- Next manual action: Maintainer decision: accept an official cumulative statement, or define a reproducible manual-count rule. Until then, gate stands.
- Why not auto-promoted: OFAC publishes per-action designations, not a cumulative shadow-fleet total; deriving one needs parsing the binary SDN list (no scraping).
- To supply the value: source packet — needs a human-supplied, validated value.
Commodity source currency (detect-only)
Detect-only: this tells you when an official commodity file looks newer than the committed snapshot, so you can decide to re-run an ingest. It never auto-ingests, never writes a snapshot, and never promotes a value. Live status comes from `npm run commodities:check-refresh` (network, on-demand); this view shows the committed periods and how to check. Run npm run commodities:check-refreshto check. It never auto-ingests — if it flags a possible new release, run the source’s refresh command by hand and review the result.
| Commodity source | Committed period | Cadence | Refresh command |
|---|---|---|---|
| Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) | 2026-05 | Monthly (early the following month) | npm run commodities:ingest |
| World Bank | 2024-12 (updated January 03, 2025) | Monthly (the 'Pink Sheet' workbook is re-published) | npm run commodities:ingest:worldbank |
Related
Operator workbench · Source packets · Staleness triage · Automation readiness · Refresh harness · /operator/source-watch/data.json