Methodology

Promotion dry run

A dry run of the promotion pipeline: how a source-gated candidate would move from data-needs → source verification → observation/provenance → version bump → hosted verification, without adding any value. CREA May 2026 is the worked example.

static reference · data June 5, 2026

This shows, end to end and without adding a value, how a gated candidate would be promoted. The worked example is CREA May 2026: once its page publishes, a maintainer reads the headline figure, adds the observation and provenance, lets the derived surfaces update, batches the version bump and freeze, and hosted-verifies. 4 shorter blocks cover the other gated candidates. No value is promoted here.

  • End-to-end pipeline walkthrough — no value added.
  • CREA May 2026 worked example + 4 shorter blocks.
  • Machine-readable at /methodology/promotion-dry-run/data.json.

Worked example — CREA May 2026 Russian fossil-fuel export revenue

Current state: Waiting for source publication — CREA's May 2026 monthly analysis is not yet published (April 2026 at EUR 734 mn/day is current).

Expected source: CREA — Monthly analysis of Russian fossil fuel exports and sanctions (May 2026 HTML page), headline stated in text.

Fields needed: headline value (EUR mn/day), month-on-month % change, reporting month (May 2026), sourceId (crea-russia-fossil-tracker), confidence, asOf, lastReviewed.

Verify: Open the CREA May 2026 monthly-analysis page once live. → Read the 'EUR X mn per day' headline and the m/m % change verbatim. → Confirm the reporting month is May 2026 and the figure is in text (not chart-only). → Second-pass re-read to confirm transcription.

Observation fields: id (new monthly obs or updated obs-sanctions-export-revenue), metricId: russia-fossil-export-revenue, value, unit: EUR million/day, asOf, periodLabel, lastReviewed, sourceId: crea-russia-fossil-tracker, confidence: medium, dataMode: live, note (cautious, associative).

Provenance fields: recordId, sourceId, sourceName/publisher/url, sourceAuthority (academic_research), citationReadiness, asOf, relatedPath, caveats.

Affected pages: /sanctions/russia-energy-trade/economic-impact, /data-coverage, /freshness, /source-health, /data-needs.

Tests / audits: obs value/asOf updated test, provenance covers the obs, no-overclaim audit, data-coverage live counts.

Versioning: Batch the DATASET_EXPORT_VERSION bump (one per 5–10 promotions); Append the snapshot ladder entry with the new counts; Freeze the payload + regenerate the manifest; Run validate:snapshots.

Hosted verification: After push, curl the sanctions topic page and the new versioned data/diff/provenance routes; Confirm the live export version and the new value.

Other gated candidates

World Bank Pink Sheet — wheat / fertilizer / gas

Blocked — exact levels are XLSX/PDF-only (HTML shows only index % changes).

Source: World Bank Pink Sheet monthly XLSX/PDF; a human reads the exact cell. · Fields: commodity, sheet/row/column, displayed value, unit, month.

Suez / Red Sea PDF table

Blocked — UNCTAD review page returns 403; SCA statistics are downloadable PDFs.

Source: SCA navigation report PDF / UNCTAD publication; a human reads the exact table value. · Fields: metric kind (transits/tonnage/revenue), value, unit, period, page/table reference.

EU vessel package count

Blocked — no 21st package yet (632 vessels @ 20th package is current).

Source: EU sanctions-package press release; the cumulative total stated in text. · Fields: cumulative listed-vessel total, +added / -delisted, package number, adoption date, source URL.

FAO next release after May 2026

Blocked — June release not out yet (May 2026 is the latest).

Source: FAO Food Price Index monthly HTML release; values stated in text. · Fields: FFPI value, sub-index values (cereal, veg oil, dairy, meat, sugar), month, index basis (2014–2016 = 100).

Promotion log: /methodology/promotion-log · promote: /methodology/promote-data-need · harness: /methodology/refresh-harness · machine-readable: /methodology/promotion-dry-run/data.json.

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