Conflict economics 101

Conflict economics is about how wars, sanctions and blockades change the flow of money, goods and energy — and how that reaches ordinary people through prices and budgets. You don't need to be an economist to follow it. This page explains the core ideas in plain English and defines the words you'll see across Warconomy's briefings and charts.

Wars move prices through supply risk, chokepoints, insurance, sanctions and expectations.
Most price moves have several causes at once — so Warconomy avoids single-cause claims.
Every figure is source-linked and not real-time; sample data is clearly labeled.
New here? Read the briefings next.

Why wars move prices

Modern economies are connected by trade. A war can disrupt the supply of things the world depends on — oil, gas, grain, fertilizer, metals — or threaten the routes they travel. Even the expectation of disruption can move prices, because markets price in risk before anything physical happens. That is why a conflict in one region can be felt in fuel pumps and grocery bills far away.

The main channels

War reaches the economy through a handful of repeatable channels: supply risk (will the goods keep flowing?), transport chokepoints (can ships still pass?), insurance and freight (how much more does it cost to move things?), sanctions (which trade is allowed?), and expectations (what does the market think comes next?). Most price moves involve several of these at once — which is exactly why it is rarely possible to blame a single cause.

Why we avoid single-cause claims

Prices move for many reasons at the same time: weather, demand, policy, currencies and war all overlap. Warconomy shows data alongside events and explains the mechanisms, but it does not claim a war 'caused' a specific price move unless a cited source says so. Every briefing ends with an explicit 'what this does not prove'.

How to read the data here

Numbers on Warconomy are source-linked: each carries its source, the date it refers to, and a review date. They are manually maintained from public sources and are not real-time market data. Sample figures are clearly labeled and must not be read as current. For the figures behind any explainer, follow its links to the commodity charts, topic pages and source registry.

Plain-English glossary

The words you'll meet across the briefings and charts, explained simply. The formal, source-linked term list is on the glossary.

Refinery: A plant that turns crude oil into usable fuels like diesel, gasoline and jet fuel. Damage to a refinery affects fuel supply even if crude oil is still being pumped. Refinery strikes briefing →
Crude oil vs. refined products: Crude is the raw oil pumped from the ground; refined products (diesel, gasoline, jet fuel) are what crude is turned into. They are different markets and can move in different directions.
LNG (liquefied natural gas): Natural gas cooled into a liquid so it can be shipped by sea instead of by pipeline. LNG lets gas move between continents, but it needs special ships and terminals. Gas, LNG, power & fertilizer briefing →
Tanker rates: The cost of hiring a ship to carry oil or gas. Rates rise when routes get longer or riskier, adding to the delivered cost of energy.
War-risk insurance: Extra insurance for ships sailing through dangerous areas. When conflict raises the risk on a route, this cover gets more expensive — a hidden cost in shipping. War-risk insurance briefing →
Chokepoint: A narrow sea passage that a large share of world trade or energy must pass through, like the Strait of Hormuz or the Suez/Red Sea route. Disruption there ripples widely. Shipping topic hub →
Shadow fleet: Older, opaquely-owned tankers used to move sanctioned oil outside normal channels. They make trade harder to see and shift safety and insurance risk. Shadow fleet briefing →
Price cap: A rule that lets companies handle sanctioned oil only if it is sold at or below a set price — designed to keep oil flowing while limiting the seller's revenue. Sanctions & price cap briefing →
Sanctions evasion: Ways of getting around trade restrictions — rerouting goods, hiding ownership, or using intermediaries. Enforcement against it is itself a policy lever.
Commodity index: A single number that tracks the average price of a basket of goods, like the FAO Food Price Index. It shows the overall trend rather than one product's price. Commodity price history →
Nominal vs. real prices: Nominal prices are the actual dollars paid; real prices are adjusted for inflation so you can compare across years. A 'record' nominal price may not be a record in real terms.
Critical minerals: Minerals essential to modern technology and energy — like cobalt, copper, lithium and rare earths — whose supply is often concentrated in a few countries. Critical minerals hub →
Cobalt: A metal used in many rechargeable batteries. Most mined cobalt comes from the Democratic Republic of the Congo, so its supply is highly concentrated. DRC cobalt & copper briefing →
Coltan: An ore refined into tantalum, used in electronics like phones and capacitors. It is mined in conflict-affected parts of central Africa.
Rare earths: A group of 17 elements used in magnets, electronics and defense equipment. They are not always geologically rare, but mining and refining them is concentrated.
Fertilizer: Products that add nutrients (nitrogen, phosphate, potash) to crops. Nitrogen fertilizer is made from natural gas, which links energy prices to food production. Food & fertilizer hub →
Food insecurity: When people lack reliable access to enough affordable, nutritious food. War can cause it by destroying production, incomes and supply routes.
Supply shock: A sudden drop in the availability of a good — from a war, disaster or embargo — that pushes its price up until supply or demand adjusts.
Risk premium: The extra amount buyers pay to secure supply when there is a threat of disruption. It can lift prices even before any goods are actually lost. Why wars affect energy prices →
Export controls: Government rules limiting which goods or technologies can be sold abroad, often for security reasons — for example, advanced chips or dual-use equipment.
Dual-use goods: Items with both civilian and military uses — like certain electronics or chemicals — which is why they are often subject to export controls.
Human capital: The skills, knowledge, health and experience of people — the part of an economy that lives in its workforce rather than in machines or buildings. War, population & economic scarring →
Demographic scarring: Lasting changes to a population's size and age structure — from deaths, displacement and lower birth rates — that can weigh on an economy for decades after a war. War, population & economic scarring →
Labour force: The people who are working or actively looking for work. A smaller labour force means fewer people to produce goods, services and tax revenue.
Working-age population: People in the age range that usually works (often counted as 15–64). War falls heavily on this group, which is why it can shrink the workforce for years.
Dependency ratio: The number of children and older people compared with the working-age population. War can raise it by removing workers, leaving fewer people to support more dependents.
Brain drain: The loss of skilled, educated people when they leave a country and do not return — a lasting drain on the place they left. Refugees & brain drain briefing →
Internally displaced person (IDP): Someone forced to flee their home but who remains within their own country — unlike a refugee, who has crossed an international border.
Refugee: Someone who has fled across an international border to escape conflict or persecution and needs protection. Refugee numbers are tracked by UNHCR.
Veteran care: The long-term support a country provides to people who served in its armed forces — including health care, rehabilitation and benefits. First a duty, and also a lasting budget commitment. Wounded veterans & disability briefing →
Disability benefits: Payments and support for people who cannot fully work because of injury or illness — including those wounded in war. They are a long-lived public obligation.
PTSD (post-traumatic stress disorder): A real, treatable mental-health condition that can follow frightening or traumatic events. It affects soldiers and civilians alike and deserves care, not stigma. Trauma & PTSD briefing →
Rehabilitation: Care that helps people recover function and independence after injury or illness — physical therapy, mental-health support and retraining for work.
Prosthetics: Artificial limbs and devices that replace body parts lost to injury. Fitting and maintaining them is part of the long-term care many war-wounded need.
Fertility rate: The average number of children born per woman. War can lower it for years through separation, loss and insecurity, shaping the future population.
Net migration: The number of people moving into a country minus those leaving, over a period. War can swing it sharply as people flee or, later, return.
Reconstruction: Rebuilding what war destroys — homes, infrastructure, services and livelihoods. It depends as much on people's health and skills as on bricks and money. Reconstruction →
Lost schooling: Time children miss from education because of war and displacement. Years out of school can lower a generation's future skills and earnings.
State capacity: A government's ability to provide services, collect revenue and keep order. Conflict can erode it while raising the demands placed on it.
Population pyramid: A chart showing how a population splits across age groups (and sometimes sexes). A wide base means many children; a narrow base and wide top means an aging population. Population structure →
Age structure: How a population is distributed across age groups. It shapes the size of the workforce, the support burden on workers, and long-run growth. Population structure →
Youth bulge: A large share of young people in a population. It can be an economic opportunity if there are jobs, or a strain if there are not.
Child dependency: The number of children (under 15) per 100 working-age people. High child dependency means workers support many young dependents.
Old-age dependency: The number of older people (65+) per 100 working-age people. It rises as populations age, increasing pension and care needs.
Working-age share: The percentage of a population aged 15–64 — the group most likely to be working. A higher share means more potential producers and taxpayers. Population structure →
Demographic dividend: The growth boost a country can get when it has many working-age people relative to dependents — but only if there are enough jobs and skills.
Population projection: An estimate of a future population based on assumptions about births, deaths and migration. Projections are uncertain and not facts about the future.
Demographic estimate: A best estimate of a population value (like total population or age structure) for a given year, based on censuses, surveys and models — not an exact count.
Copper: A metal essential to wiring, electrical grids and electric vehicles. Central Africa, including the DRC, is a significant source. Critical minerals & conflict →
Tantalum: A metal refined from coltan, used in capacitors in phones and computers. It is mined in conflict-affected parts of central Africa. Critical minerals & conflict →
Lithium: A light metal central to rechargeable batteries for electric vehicles and storage. Demand is rising fast worldwide.
Uranium: A metal used as fuel for nuclear power. Several Sahel countries are notable producers, linking the region to energy markets. Critical minerals & conflict →
Artisanal mining: Small-scale, labour-intensive mining done by hand or with simple tools, often informally. It supports many livelihoods but can be hazardous.
Supply-chain concentration: When a large share of a good's supply comes from one country or region, so disruption there has outsized global effects. Critical minerals & conflict →
Mineral export dependence: When a country relies heavily on exporting one or a few minerals for its income — which makes it vulnerable to price swings and disruption.

Related briefings

Source-reviewed explainers (not live news) that put this page in context.

Trauma, PTSD and the cost of post-war recovery — War leaves psychological as well as physical wounds. This explains how trauma and PTSD can weigh on recovery — through health-system demand, productivity and family burden — while stressing that individual outcomes vary widely.