⚡ What-if scenarios
War-economy what-ifs you can actually explore
Pick a question and open the tool that answers it. Each is an assumption-based scenario you adjust yourself — a scenario, not a forecast, and no current price or event is asserted.
Not live newsNot a forecastScenario uses your assumptions
What if oil hits $100 and gas is $3.50 now?If crude climbs toward a higher level, the pump price does not move one-for-one — it depends on pass-through and timing. Open the gas tool to see an assumption-based low–mid–high range from your own inputs. A scenario, not a forecast; no current price is asserted.Open the gas-price scenario →What if Hormuz is disrupted for 30 days?If a disruption to the Strait of Hormuz lasted weeks, energy and shipping could feel pressure — but how much depends on rerouting, spare capacity and inventory buffers. Set your own assumptions in the Hormuz scenario. A scenario, not a forecast.Try the Hormuz scenario →What if Red Sea shipping stays risky?If Red Sea shipping stayed risky, ships reroute around southern Africa, which can lift freight costs and stretch delivery times for imported goods. Explore the assumption-based shipping scenario. Not a forecast; no current rate is asserted.Try the Red Sea scenario →What if Taiwan chip flows are disrupted?If Taiwan's advanced-chip flows were disrupted, electronics, autos and factory inputs could feel tighter supply. The scenario traces the economic channel only — a scenario, not a forecast. It makes no military prediction and asserts no current number.Try the Taiwan scenario →What if China restricts rare-earth exports?If China restricted rare-earth exports, magnets used in EVs, wind power, defense systems and electronics could feel pressure. Rare earths are distinct from lithium, cobalt and copper. A scenario built from your assumptions, not a forecast.Try the rare-earth scenario →What could war do to grocery prices?If war disrupted major grain and fertilizer regions, grocery and food-import costs could feel pressure that reaches the shelf slowly and only partly. Explore the assumption-based food scenario. Not a forecast; no current price is asserted.Try the food & grain scenario →What if defense spending rises sharply?If defense spending rose sharply, public budgets could feel pressure through borrowing, taxes or trade-offs with other spending. Try the assumption-based defense model with your own inputs. A scenario, not a forecast.Try the defense-spending scenario →What if a migration or labor shock hits?If a migration or labor-force shock hit, jobs, services, housing demand and the long-run tax base could shift. Explore the assumption-based labor model. A scenario, not a forecast; no current figure is asserted.Try the migration & labor scenario →
Or start with a plain-English explainer
How war reaches everyday things — each links to a tool, a scenario and a source-reviewed briefing.