Every Warconomy figure and claim carries a confidence level — high, medium, or low. It is a conservative, stated signal of how directly the value is source-reported and how much weight to give it, not a statistical error bar or probability. High means taken verbatim from a primary source; low means indicative or sample-grade.
- Three levels: high, medium, low.
- A stated signal, not an error bar.
- See the live breakdown at /confidence.
high Directly source-reported by an official or primary publisher with a deep link.
Assigned when: An official, intergovernmental, or primary market source publishes the exact value; the figure is taken verbatim with a clear as-of date.
medium Source-reported but with some interpretation, aggregation, or a less-primary publisher.
Assigned when: A credible secondary source, a derived/aggregated figure, or a value requiring light interpretation; still cited, but a notch less direct.
low Indicative or sample-grade; treat as illustrative, not authoritative.
Assigned when: Sample/illustrative values, rough estimates, or figures where the source is weak or the definition is uncertain. Read with caution.
Related
Live breakdown: /confidence · caveats: /caveats · style guide: /methodology/style-guide.