candidateId: sipri-nato-series

status: promoted

sourcePublisher: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute

sourceTitle: SIPRI — Trends in World Military Expenditure, 2025

sourceFormat: press-release HTML (figures stated in text)

unit: USD billion

period: 2025 (annual)

previousDataNeedStatus: candidate → attempted

observationIds: obs-defense-germany-2025; obs-defense-india-2025; obs-defense-uk-2025; obs-defense-ukraine-2025; obs-defense-saudi-2025; obs-defense-france-2025; obs-defense-japan-2025

reviewerNote: Added 7 additional SIPRI 2025 national-spender observations (Germany 114, India 92.1, UK 89, Ukraine 84.1, Saudi Arabia 83.2, France 68, Japan 62.2; US$bn), same basis as the existing top-3, cross-checked against the SIPRI 2025 press release (which restates US 954 / China 336 / Russia 190). Live observations 47 → 54.

validation: validate:batch + validate:snapshots + validate:release

caveats: Annual estimate, revised in later releases; not real-time.; Levels and direction only — not a causal attribution.


status: blocked

sourceId: crea-russia-fossil-tracker

sourcePublisher: Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA)

sourceTitle: CREA — Monthly analysis of Russian fossil fuel exports and sanctions

sourceFormat: monthly-analysis HTML (headline stated in text)

previousDataNeedStatus: attempted (waiting)

reviewerNote: BLOCKED / WAITING: CREA's May 2026 monthly analysis is not published yet (April 2026 at EUR 734 mn/day is current). Promote via /methodology/promote-data-need once the May page is live.

validation: none (no value added)

caveats: No value promoted; the gate stands.


candidateId: pink-sheet

sourcePublisher: World Bank

sourceTitle: World Bank Commodity Markets ('Pink Sheet')

sourceFormat: XLSX / PDF (exact cells; HTML shows only index % changes)

previousDataNeedStatus: attempted (blocked)

reviewerNote: BLOCKED / MANUAL TRANSCRIPTION NEEDED: exact wheat/fertilizer/gas levels are XLSX/PDF-only. A human must read the cell (sheet/row/column, value, unit, month) per /methodology/source-workflows.

caveats: No value promoted; binary-source gate stands.


candidateId: suez-transit

sourcePublisher: Suez Canal Authority / UNCTAD

sourceTitle: SCA navigation reports / UNCTAD maritime publications

sourceFormat: PDF (table/page); UNCTAD review page returns HTTP 403

reviewerNote: BLOCKED / PDF-OR-403: UNCTAD's review page returns 403; SCA statistics are downloadable PDFs. A human must read the exact transit/tonnage/revenue figure per /methodology/source-workflows.


candidateId: ofac-vessel-count

sourcePublisher: U.S. Treasury / OFAC

sourceTitle: OFAC SDN list / Treasury action releases

sourceFormat: binary SDN list (no cumulative total stated)

reviewerNote: BLOCKED / MANUAL DERIVATION NEEDED: OFAC publishes per-action designations, not a cumulative shadow-fleet total. Needs an official cumulative statement, or a documented deterministic manual count (no scraping the binary list).