{
  "name": "Warconomy — forecast archive (resolved)",
  "archiveVersion": "1.0.0",
  "page": "https://warconomy.com/forecasts",
  "note": "Warconomy forecasts are model-based predictions that can be wrong. They are decision-support, not advice, and not investment, legal, or policy guidance. Issued forecasts are immutable: a changed view becomes a new record and the original stays published. Hindcasts (isHindcast: true) are strict-cutoff historical demonstrations, never live predictive performance. See /forecasting-policy.",
  "probabilityBandDefinitions": {
    "very-unlikely": "roughly 5-20%",
    "unlikely": "roughly 20-40%",
    "roughly-even": "roughly 40-60%",
    "likely": "roughly 60-80%",
    "very-likely": "roughly 80-95%"
  },
  "manifest": {
    "archiveVersion": "1.0.0",
    "generatedFrom": "src/data/forecasts.ts (committed, append-only)",
    "totalRecords": 10,
    "liveForecasts": 8,
    "hindcasts": 2,
    "active": 7,
    "resolved": 0,
    "domains": [
      {
        "domain": "conflict",
        "count": 1
      },
      {
        "domain": "sanctions",
        "count": 1
      },
      {
        "domain": "shipping",
        "count": 2
      },
      {
        "domain": "energy",
        "count": 1
      },
      {
        "domain": "humanitarian",
        "count": 1
      },
      {
        "domain": "macro",
        "count": 1
      }
    ],
    "models": [
      {
        "id": "trend-continuation-v1",
        "version": "1.0"
      },
      {
        "id": "policy-sequencing-v1",
        "version": "1.0"
      },
      {
        "id": "external-forecast-tracking-v1",
        "version": "1.0"
      },
      {
        "id": "threshold-persistence-v1",
        "version": "1.0"
      }
    ],
    "integrityIssues": 0
  },
  "records": [
    {
      "id": "hc-2026-02-eia-brent-june-revision",
      "slug": "hindcast-eia-brent-2026-revision",
      "title": "Hindcast: would a naive 'no revision' rule have predicted the EIA's July 2026 Brent cut?",
      "domain": "energy",
      "epistemicClass": "forecast",
      "evidenceStatus": "verified",
      "status": "resolved",
      "isHindcast": true,
      "targetVariable": "The EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook's published 2026 annual Brent forecast",
      "targetEvent": "The July 2026 STEO revises its 2026 annual Brent forecast DOWNWARD from the June 2026 STEO figure of $95.39/b",
      "resolutionCriteria": "Resolves TRUE if the July 2026 STEO's 2026 annual Brent average is below $95.39/b.",
      "resolutionSource": "EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, July 2026 edition",
      "resolutionDate": "2026-07-07",
      "issueDate": "2026-06-19",
      "dataCutoffDate": "2026-06-19",
      "nextReviewDate": null,
      "horizonDays": 18,
      "probabilityBand": "very-likely",
      "probabilityBandMeaning": "roughly 80-95%",
      "centralEstimate": null,
      "interval": null,
      "assumptions": [
        "Cutoff-date information only: the U.S.-Iran memorandum was signed 18 June 2026 and tanker traffic through Hormuz was reported to have jumped immediately afterward.",
        "A supply-restrictive premium built into the June STEO would unwind once the strait reopened."
      ],
      "leadingIndicators": [
        "Daily Hormuz transit counts after 18 June 2026"
      ],
      "invalidationConditions": [
        "The memorandum collapsing before the July STEO cutoff of 1 July 2026."
      ],
      "weakSourceDisclosure": null,
      "competingEvidence": [],
      "dataGaps": [],
      "reconstructedInputIds": [],
      "nowcastInputIds": [],
      "baselineComparison": {
        "baselineName": "No-revision naive baseline",
        "baselinePrediction": "The July STEO repeats the June figure of $95.39/b (no revision).",
        "baselineWasCorrect": false
      },
      "methodologyId": "external-forecast-tracking-v1",
      "modelVersion": "1.0",
      "modelCardPath": "/methods/models/external-forecast-tracking-v1",
      "sourceIds": [
        "eia-steo"
      ],
      "supersededByForecastId": null,
      "supersedesForecastId": null,
      "revisionNote": null,
      "resolution": {
        "observedEventOccurred": true,
        "observedOutcomeSummary": "The July 2026 STEO (released 7 July 2026) cut the 2026 annual Brent average to $81.91/b from $95.39/b — a downward revision of about $13.48/b, explicitly attributed by the EIA to increased oil flows through the reopened strait.",
        "scoredAt": "2026-07-18",
        "directionallyCorrect": true,
        "brierScore": 0.0225
      },
      "page": "https://warconomy.com/forecasts/hindcast-eia-brent-2026-revision"
    },
    {
      "id": "hc-2026-03-sudan-idp-decline",
      "slug": "hindcast-sudan-idp-decline",
      "title": "Hindcast: would trend continuation have beaten 'no change' on Sudan's IDP total?",
      "domain": "humanitarian",
      "epistemicClass": "forecast",
      "evidenceStatus": "verified",
      "status": "resolved",
      "isHindcast": true,
      "targetVariable": "IOM DTM Sudan total internally displaced persons",
      "targetEvent": "IOM DTM's March 2026 round reports a national IDP total below 9.5 million",
      "resolutionCriteria": "Resolves TRUE if DTM's March 2026 Sudan round reports a national IDP total below 9,500,000.",
      "resolutionSource": "IOM Displacement Tracking Matrix, Sudan displacement and return snapshots",
      "resolutionDate": "2026-03-29",
      "issueDate": "2025-01-28",
      "dataCutoffDate": "2025-01-28",
      "nextReviewDate": null,
      "horizonDays": 425,
      "probabilityBand": null,
      "probabilityBandMeaning": null,
      "centralEstimate": null,
      "interval": {
        "low": 8500000,
        "high": 9500000,
        "intervalMeaning": "plausible-range"
      },
      "assumptions": [
        "Cutoff-date information only: DTM's recorded peak was 11,585,384 IDPs in January 2025.",
        "Returns would begin to outpace new displacement as some areas stabilized."
      ],
      "leadingIndicators": [
        "DTM return figures relative to new-displacement figures"
      ],
      "invalidationConditions": [
        "A major new offensive displacing over a million people."
      ],
      "weakSourceDisclosure": null,
      "competingEvidence": [],
      "dataGaps": [],
      "reconstructedInputIds": [],
      "nowcastInputIds": [],
      "baselineComparison": {
        "baselineName": "No-change naive baseline",
        "baselinePrediction": "The March 2026 total remains at the January 2025 peak of 11,585,384.",
        "baselineWasCorrect": false
      },
      "methodologyId": "trend-continuation-v1",
      "modelVersion": "1.0",
      "modelCardPath": "/methods/models/trend-continuation-v1",
      "sourceIds": [
        "iom-dtm-sudan"
      ],
      "supersededByForecastId": null,
      "supersedesForecastId": null,
      "revisionNote": null,
      "resolution": {
        "observedValue": 8936175,
        "observedOutcomeSummary": "DTM's 29 March 2026 round recorded an estimated 8,936,175 IDPs — a 23% decline from the peak, inside the forecast's 8.5-9.5 million plausible range. The no-change baseline was wrong by roughly 2.65 million.",
        "scoredAt": "2026-07-18",
        "absoluteError": 0,
        "intervalCovered": true,
        "directionallyCorrect": true
      },
      "page": "https://warconomy.com/forecasts/hindcast-sudan-idp-decline"
    }
  ]
}