{ "version": "1.62.0", "dataset": { "id": "conflict-economic-impact", "title": "Conflict economic-impact dataset", "description": "A machine-readable export of Warconomy's structured economic-impact records: entities, metrics, observations (a growing set of live/static rows plus clearly labeled sample rows), source-linked facts, events, and sources. Each observation carries its own dataMode, and the export includes coverage and freshness summaries. Partial coverage; not real-time.", "license": "CC BY 4.0 (Warconomy compilation; underlying sources retain their own terms).", "coverage": "Russia–Ukraine war, Strait of Hormuz, Red Sea shipping, sanctions on Russian energy trade, the Russian oil shadow fleet, frozen Russian assets & Ukraine financing, and global defense/shipping dashboards.", "lastUpdated": "2026-06-05", "dataMode": "sample" }, "countries": [ { "id": "ukraine", "name": "Ukraine", "iso3": "UKR" }, { "id": "russia", "name": "Russia", "iso3": "RUS" } ], "commodities": [ { "id": "crude-oil", "name": "Crude oil", "category": "energy", "unit": "USD/bbl" }, { "id": "natural-gas", "name": "Natural gas", "category": "energy", "unit": "USD/MMBtu" }, { "id": "wheat", "name": "Wheat", "category": "food", "unit": "USD/tonne" }, { "id": "sunflower-oil", "name": "Sunflower oil", "category": "food", "unit": "USD/tonne" }, { "id": "fertilizer", "name": "Fertilizer", "category": "inputs", "unit": "index" }, { "id": "container-freight", "name": "Container freight", "category": "freight", "unit": "USD/FEU" } ], "commoditySubjects": [ { "id": "oil-benchmarks", "slug": "oil-benchmarks", "name": "Oil price benchmarks", "focus": "Energy benchmark", "summary": "Brent and WTI crude oil benchmarks, the reference prices through which conflict, sanctions, and chokepoint risk are most visibly transmitted to the global economy. Market benchmarks, not a causal attribution." }, { "id": "natural-gas", "slug": "natural-gas", "name": "Natural gas prices", "focus": "Energy benchmark", "summary": "Natural gas benchmark prices (U.S. Henry Hub), tracked alongside the energy-supply and sanctions channels. A market benchmark, not a causal attribution." }, { "id": "food-prices", "slug": "food-prices", "name": "Food commodity prices", "focus": "Food benchmark", "summary": "The FAO Food Price Index and its sub-indices (cereals, vegetable oils, dairy, meat, sugar) — global food-commodity benchmarks tracked alongside the food-security channel of conflict and trade disruption. Benchmarks, not a causal attribution." } ], "conflicts": [ { "id": "russia-ukraine", "slug": "russia-ukraine", "name": "Russia–Ukraine war", "status": "active", "startDate": "2022-02-24", "parties": [ "russia", "ukraine" ], "summary": "An active war affecting global energy, food, and fertilizer markets, regional trade routes, and long-run reconstruction costs." } ], "chokepoints": [ { "id": "strait-of-hormuz", "slug": "strait-of-hormuz", "name": "Strait of Hormuz", "region": "Persian Gulf", "waterway": "Strait of Hormuz", "summary": "The world's most important oil transit chokepoint, connecting Gulf producers to global markets with limited bypass capacity.", "commodities": [ "crude-oil", "natural-gas" ] }, { "id": "red-sea-shipping", "slug": "red-sea-shipping", "name": "Red Sea shipping corridor", "region": "Red Sea / Gulf of Aden", "waterway": "Bab-el-Mandeb & Suez Canal", "summary": "A primary Europe–Asia container and energy route; disruptions push carriers onto longer routes around southern Africa.", "commodities": [ "container-freight", "crude-oil" ] }, { "id": "panama-canal", "slug": "panama-canal", "name": "Panama Canal", "region": "Central America (Pacific–Atlantic)", "waterway": "Panama Canal", "summary": "A lock-based interoceanic canal linking the Atlantic and Pacific; a key route for U.S. container, grain, and energy trade whose capacity is constrained by freshwater (drought) limits.", "commodities": [ "container-freight", "crude-oil", "natural-gas" ] }, { "id": "bab-el-mandeb", "slug": "bab-el-mandeb", "name": "Bab el-Mandeb Strait", "region": "Red Sea / Gulf of Aden", "waterway": "Bab el-Mandeb Strait", "summary": "The southern gateway between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden; a strategic transit point for oil and LNG moving between the Mediterranean/Suez and the Indian Ocean.", "commodities": [ "crude-oil", "natural-gas" ] }, { "id": "strait-of-malacca", "slug": "strait-of-malacca", "name": "Strait of Malacca", "region": "Southeast Asia (Indian–Pacific)", "waterway": "Strait of Malacca", "summary": "The shortest sea route between the Indian and Pacific Oceans and, after Hormuz, the world's second-busiest oil transit chokepoint, carrying crude and products toward East Asian markets.", "commodities": [ "crude-oil", "natural-gas" ] }, { "id": "turkish-straits", "slug": "turkish-straits", "name": "Turkish Straits", "region": "Türkiye (Black Sea–Mediterranean)", "waterway": "Bosporus & Dardanelles (Turkish Straits)", "summary": "The Bosporus and Dardanelles linking the Black Sea to the Mediterranean; a narrow, mostly-crude oil route for Russian, Caspian, and Black Sea exports.", "commodities": [ "crude-oil" ] }, { "id": "danish-straits", "slug": "danish-straits", "name": "Danish Straits", "region": "Baltic Sea approaches", "waterway": "Danish Straits", "summary": "The Baltic Sea's outlet to the North Sea and a primary route for seaborne Russian and Baltic crude and petroleum-product exports.", "commodities": [ "crude-oil" ] } ], "sanctions": { "nonLegalAdvice": true, "disclaimer": "Economic-impact reference only. Policy thresholds are not market prices, and this is not legal or compliance advice.", "dashboardPath": "/sanctions/dashboard", "lastReviewed": "2026-06-05", "topics": [ { "id": "russia-energy-trade", "path": "/sanctions/russia-energy-trade/economic-impact", "title": "Economic impact of sanctions on Russian energy trade", "liveIndicatorIds": [ "obs-sanctions-crude-cap", "obs-sanctions-us-crude-cap", "obs-sanctions-products-cap", "obs-sanctions-export-revenue", "obs-sanctions-gas-share" ], "policyThresholdIds": [ "pt-us-g7-crude", "pt-eu-crude", "pt-eu-products-premium", "pt-eu-products-discount" ], "factIds": [ "fact-sanctions-cap-history", "fact-sanctions-us-cap", "fact-sanctions-products-cap", "fact-sanctions-gas-diversification", "fact-sanctions-revenue" ], "limitations": [ "Coverage is partial: a small set of source-linked policy and trade indicators, not a complete map of any sanctions regime.", "Price caps are policy thresholds, not realized market prices; the EU and US have applied different cap levels, and the EU cap is reviewed periodically.", "Sanctions effects are hard to isolate; observed changes reflect prices, demand, rerouting, and many other factors, not sanctions alone.", "Trade rerouting and opaque shipping complicate measurement; official data may lag or be revised.", "Not real-time and manually maintained; this is an economic-impact reference, not legal or compliance advice." ] }, { "id": "shadow-fleet-shipping-insurance", "path": "/sanctions/shadow-fleet-shipping-insurance/economic-impact", "title": "Economic impact of Russia's oil shadow fleet and shipping sanctions", "liveIndicatorIds": [ "obs-shadow-eu-vessels", "obs-shadow-ofac-vessels", "obs-shadow-export-share" ], "policyThresholdIds": [], "factIds": [ "fact-shadow-eu-listings", "fact-shadow-crea-opacity" ], "limitations": [ "Shadow-fleet definitions vary across sources; vessel counts and shares are not directly comparable.", "Vessel counts are dated snapshots that rise with each EU package or OFAC action; the EU total and OFAC count are as of specific actions.", "The CREA export-share is a dated cumulative estimate (since December 2022) and differs by methodology.", "Not a real-time vessel tracker and not maritime intelligence; values are manually maintained and not real-time.", "An economic-impact reference, not legal or compliance advice; not a causal attribution model." ] }, { "id": "frozen-russian-assets-ukraine-financing", "path": "/sanctions/frozen-russian-assets-ukraine-financing/economic-impact", "title": "Economic impact of frozen Russian assets and Ukraine financing", "liveIndicatorIds": [ "obs-frozen-eu-immobilized", "obs-frozen-g7-era", "obs-frozen-eu-era" ], "policyThresholdIds": [], "factIds": [ "fact-frozen-immobilized", "fact-frozen-proceeds", "fact-frozen-us-disbursement" ], "limitations": [ "Principal immobilized assets and the proceeds/extraordinary revenues they generate are different things; this page keeps them separate.", "Values differ by jurisdiction and scope — EU-only figures (about €210 billion) are not the same as worldwide/G7 totals (about €260 billion).", "Committed loans, announcements, and actual disbursements are not the same; figures are dated to specific decisions.", "Legal mechanisms and financing structures can change; this is described as context, not legal or compliance advice.", "Not real-time and not a tracker of legal proceedings or disbursement ledgers; values are manually maintained and not a causal attribution." ] }, { "id": "secondary-sanctions-circumvention", "path": "/sanctions/secondary-sanctions-circumvention/economic-impact", "title": "Economic impact of secondary sanctions and third-country circumvention", "liveIndicatorIds": [ "obs-circumvention-eu-entities", "obs-circumvention-chpl" ], "policyThresholdIds": [], "factIds": [ "fact-circumvention-kyrgyzstan", "fact-circumvention-thirdcountry", "fact-circumvention-chpl" ], "limitations": [ "Official counts are package/action snapshots, not cumulative or cross-jurisdiction comparable.", "Circumvention and trade-diversion estimates vary by methodology and are hard to measure precisely.", "Coverage is partial — a few official indicators, not a complete enforcement database.", "Not real-time and manually maintained; figures may change with new packages or guidance.", "An economic-impact reference, not legal or compliance advice; effects are associative, not a causal attribution." ] } ], "highPriorityReviewObservationIds": [ "obs-sanctions-us-crude-cap", "obs-sanctions-products-cap", "obs-shadow-ofac-vessels", "obs-shadow-export-share", "obs-frozen-g7-era", "obs-frozen-eu-era", "obs-circumvention-chpl" ], "relatedSourceIds": [ "ec-crude-cap-2026", "us-treasury-russia-price-cap", "ec-sanctions-energy", "crea-russia-fossil-tracker", "ec-repowereu", "iea", "eu-council-shadow-fleet", "us-treasury-jan2025-vessels", "crea-shadow-tankers", "consilium-russia-sanctions", "us-treasury-era", "ec-era-loan", "ec-circumvention-20th", "ec-chpl" ] }, "metrics": [ { "id": "brent-crude-price", "name": "Brent crude price", "unit": "USD/bbl", "description": "Benchmark price for Brent crude oil, commonly tracked alongside energy-supply risk.", "category": "energy" }, { "id": "wti-crude-price", "name": "WTI crude price", "unit": "USD/bbl", "description": "Benchmark price for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil (Cushing, Oklahoma), the U.S. crude reference, tracked alongside Brent.", "category": "energy" }, { "id": "henry-hub-gas-price", "name": "Henry Hub natural gas price", "unit": "USD/MMBtu", "description": "U.S. Henry Hub natural gas spot benchmark price, a reference for North American gas markets, tracked alongside the energy-supply channel.", "category": "energy" }, { "id": "fao-food-subindex", "name": "FAO food price sub-index", "unit": "index (2014–2016 = 100)", "description": "An FAO Food Price Index sub-index (cereals, vegetable oils, dairy, meat, or sugar), a global food-commodity benchmark (nominal, 2014–2016 = 100) tracked alongside the food-security channel. The specific sub-index is named per observation.", "category": "food" }, { "id": "hormuz-oil-transit", "name": "Hormuz oil & condensate transit", "unit": "million bbl/day", "description": "Estimated daily crude oil and condensate volume transiting the Strait of Hormuz.", "category": "energy" }, { "id": "chokepoint-oil-transit", "name": "Chokepoint oil & petroleum liquids transit", "unit": "million bbl/day", "description": "EIA estimate of the volume of crude oil and petroleum liquids transported through a maritime chokepoint, in million barrels per day, for a stated quarter. A quarterly snapshot from the EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, not real-time.", "category": "energy" }, { "id": "panama-canal-transits", "name": "Panama Canal vessel transits", "unit": "transits", "description": "Number of deep-draft vessel transits through the Panama Canal in a fiscal year, as reported by the Panama Canal Authority.", "category": "trade" }, { "id": "panama-canal-revenue", "name": "Panama Canal toll revenue", "unit": "USD billion", "description": "Total toll/transit revenue of the Panama Canal in a fiscal year, as reported by the Panama Canal Authority (in balboas, pegged 1:1 to the U.S. dollar).", "category": "trade" }, { "id": "suez-transit-change", "name": "Suez Canal transit change", "unit": "% vs. baseline", "description": "Change in vessel transits through the Suez Canal relative to a prior baseline or peak period.", "category": "shipping" }, { "id": "suez-container-transit-change", "name": "Suez Canal container-ship transit change", "unit": "% vs. baseline", "description": "Change in weekly container-ship transits through the Suez Canal relative to a prior baseline period.", "category": "shipping" }, { "id": "suez-trade-volume-change", "name": "Suez Canal trade-volume change", "unit": "% YoY", "description": "Year-over-year change in the volume of trade transiting the Suez Canal, as estimated from vessel-tracking data.", "category": "trade" }, { "id": "asia-europe-freight", "name": "Asia–Europe container freight", "unit": "USD/FEU", "description": "Spot freight rate for a 40-foot-equivalent container on the Asia-to-Europe lane.", "category": "shipping" }, { "id": "ukraine-grain-exports", "name": "Ukraine grain exports", "unit": "million tonnes/month", "description": "Monthly grain export volume from Ukraine across sea and land corridors.", "category": "food" }, { "id": "ukraine-reconstruction-cost", "name": "Ukraine reconstruction & recovery need", "unit": "USD billion", "description": "Estimated cumulative cost of reconstruction and recovery, as assessed by institutions.", "category": "macro" }, { "id": "global-defense-spending", "name": "Global military expenditure", "unit": "USD billion", "description": "Total worldwide military spending for a given year.", "category": "defense" }, { "id": "global-defense-spending-change", "name": "Global military expenditure — real-terms change", "unit": "%", "description": "Year-over-year change in world military expenditure in real terms.", "category": "defense" }, { "id": "country-military-expenditure", "name": "Country military expenditure", "unit": "USD billion", "description": "A single country's annual military expenditure for a given year, as estimated by SIPRI. A source-reported annual figure, not real-time.", "category": "defense" }, { "id": "nato-gdp-share", "name": "NATO defense spending (share at/above 2% GDP)", "unit": "count of allies", "description": "Number of NATO allies estimated to meet or exceed the 2% of GDP defense-spending guideline.", "category": "defense" }, { "id": "fao-food-price-index", "name": "FAO Food Price Index", "unit": "index (2014–2016 = 100)", "description": "FAO's monthly index of international food commodity prices (nominal, 2014–2016 = 100); a global benchmark tracked alongside food-security and conflict-related supply channels.", "category": "food" }, { "id": "shipping-risk-index", "name": "Global shipping-risk index", "unit": "index (0–100)", "description": "Composite indicator of maritime disruption risk across major routes and chokepoints.", "category": "shipping" }, { "id": "russia-crude-price-cap", "name": "EU Russian crude oil price cap", "unit": "USD/bbl", "description": "EU policy threshold above which coalition operators may not provide maritime services for seaborne Russian crude oil (a dynamic cap kept 15% below the six-month average Urals price). A policy parameter, not a market price.", "category": "energy" }, { "id": "us-g7-crude-price-cap", "name": "U.S./G7 Russian crude oil price cap", "unit": "USD/bbl", "description": "U.S./G7 (Price Cap Coalition) policy threshold above which coalition operators may not provide covered services for seaborne Russian-origin crude oil. A policy parameter, not a market price.", "category": "energy" }, { "id": "russia-products-price-cap", "name": "Russian refined products price cap (premium-to-crude)", "unit": "USD/bbl", "description": "Policy threshold for premium-to-crude seaborne Russian petroleum products (e.g. diesel, kerosene, gasoline) under the price-cap regime. A policy parameter, not a market price.", "category": "energy" }, { "id": "eu-russian-gas-share", "name": "Russian gas share of EU gas imports", "unit": "% of EU gas imports", "description": "Share of EU gas imports sourced from Russia, tracked alongside the EU's energy-diversification channel under REPowerEU. An annual figure that may be revised.", "category": "trade" }, { "id": "russia-fossil-export-revenue", "name": "Russia fossil fuel export revenue (CREA)", "unit": "EUR million/day", "description": "CREA's monthly estimate of Russia's daily-average fossil fuel export revenue. An export-revenue estimate by an independent research organisation (authoritative research, not official government data); tracked alongside the sanctions/price-cap channel and many other factors, not a causal attribution.", "category": "macro" }, { "id": "eu-shadow-fleet-vessels", "name": "EU-listed shadow-fleet vessels", "unit": "vessels", "description": "Cumulative number of vessels in Russia's 'shadow fleet' listed by the EU (subject to port-access and maritime-service bans) across successive sanctions packages. A source-reported count as of a stated package, not a real-time tally.", "category": "shipping" }, { "id": "ofac-designated-vessels", "name": "OFAC-designated Russia-related vessels", "unit": "vessels", "description": "Number of vessels designated in a specific U.S. Treasury / OFAC sanctions action targeting Russian oil shipping and the shadow fleet. A source-reported count for a stated action, not a real-time tally.", "category": "shipping" }, { "id": "shadow-fleet-export-share", "name": "Shadow-fleet share of Russian oil exports", "unit": "% of exports (volume)", "description": "Estimated share of Russian oil exports (by volume) carried by 'shadow'/'dark' tankers, as reported by research organisations. Estimates vary by methodology and period and are not a causal attribution.", "category": "trade" }, { "id": "immobilized-russian-assets-eu", "name": "Immobilized Russian central-bank assets (EU)", "unit": "EUR billion", "description": "Principal value of Central Bank of Russia sovereign assets immobilized in the EU (the assets are immobilized, not confiscated). A source-reported standing total that differs from worldwide figures; not the proceeds those assets generate.", "category": "macro" }, { "id": "g7-era-loans", "name": "G7 ERA loans to Ukraine (total)", "unit": "USD billion", "description": "Total of the G7 Extraordinary Revenue Acceleration (ERA) loan initiative for Ukraine, to be repaid from the windfall proceeds generated by immobilized Russian sovereign assets — a loan financed by proceeds, not the principal assets.", "category": "macro" }, { "id": "eu-era-contribution", "name": "EU contribution to G7 ERA loans", "unit": "EUR billion", "description": "The EU's contribution (exceptional Macro-Financial Assistance loan) to the G7 ERA loan initiative for Ukraine, repaid from proceeds of immobilized Russian assets. A source-reported commitment, distinct from amounts actually disbursed.", "category": "macro" }, { "id": "eu-circumvention-entities", "name": "EU-listed entities supporting Russia's military-industrial base / circumvention", "unit": "entities", "description": "Number of entities the EU listed in a given sanctions package for providing direct or indirect support to Russia's military-industrial complex or for sanctions circumvention, including third-country entities. A source-reported count as of a stated package, not a cumulative total.", "category": "trade" }, { "id": "common-high-priority-items", "name": "Common High Priority Items (export-control list)", "unit": "items", "description": "Number of items (six-digit HS codes) on the Common High Priority Items list jointly maintained by the EU, US, UK, and Japan — battlefield/dual-use goods at high risk of diversion to Russia. A policy/export-control parameter, not a market value.", "category": "trade" } ], "observations": [ { "id": "obs-ukr-grain", "metricId": "ukraine-grain-exports", "metricName": "Ukraine grain exports", "value": 4.5, "unit": "million tonnes/month", "dataMode": "sample", "confidence": "low", "asOf": "2026-05-01", "period": "sample period", "lastReviewed": null, "sourceId": "fao", "subjectType": "conflict", "subjectId": "russia-ukraine", "relatedPath": "/conflicts/russia-ukraine/economic-impact", "reviewStatus": null, "recommendedReviewBy": null, "reviewPriority": null, "note": "Sample value pending live data." }, { "id": "obs-ukr-reconstruction", "metricId": "ukraine-reconstruction-cost", "metricName": "Ukraine reconstruction & recovery need", "value": 524, "unit": "USD billion", "dataMode": "live", "confidence": "medium", "asOf": "2024-12-31", "period": "as of December 2024 (RDNA4)", "lastReviewed": "2026-06-05", "sourceId": "wb-rdna4", "subjectType": "conflict", "subjectId": "russia-ukraine", "relatedPath": "/conflicts/russia-ukraine/economic-impact", "reviewStatus": "due-soon", "recommendedReviewBy": "2026-07-01", "reviewPriority": "medium", "note": "Estimated cost of reconstruction and recovery over the next decade, as of 31 December 2024, from the joint Government of Ukraine / World Bank / European Commission / UN Fourth Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment (RDNA4, released February 2025). This is a recovery-needs estimate, not direct war damage (separately assessed at about USD 176 billion), and may be revised in later assessments. Manually maintained static value, not real-time." }, { "id": "obs-ukr-wheat", "metricId": "brent-crude-price", "metricName": "Brent crude price", "value": 74, "unit": "USD/bbl", "dataMode": "sample", "confidence": "low", "asOf": "2026-05-01", "period": "sample period", "lastReviewed": null, "sourceId": "eia", "subjectType": "conflict", "subjectId": "russia-ukraine", "relatedPath": "/conflicts/russia-ukraine/economic-impact", "reviewStatus": null, "recommendedReviewBy": null, "reviewPriority": null, "note": "Sample value pending live data." }, { "id": "obs-ukr-food-price-index", "metricId": "fao-food-price-index", "metricName": "FAO Food Price Index", "value": 130.8, "unit": "index (2014–2016 = 100)", "dataMode": "live", "confidence": "high", "asOf": "2026-05-31", "period": "May 2026 monthly value", "lastReviewed": "2026-06-05", "sourceId": "fao-fpi", "subjectType": "conflict", "subjectId": "russia-ukraine", "relatedPath": "/conflicts/russia-ukraine/economic-impact", "reviewStatus": "current", "recommendedReviewBy": "2026-07-15", "reviewPriority": "low", "note": "Source-reported May 2026 value of the FAO Food Price Index, a global benchmark of international food-commodity prices. Tracked alongside the war's food and agricultural-input channel and many other factors; not a causal attribution. Manually maintained static value, not real-time." }, { "id": "obs-hormuz-transit", "metricId": "hormuz-oil-transit", "metricName": "Hormuz oil & condensate transit", "value": 20, "unit": "million bbl/day", "dataMode": "sample", "confidence": "medium", "asOf": "2026-05-01", "period": "illustrative magnitude", "lastReviewed": null, "sourceId": "eia", "subjectType": "chokepoint", "subjectId": "strait-of-hormuz", "relatedPath": "/chokepoints/strait-of-hormuz/economic-impact", "reviewStatus": null, "recommendedReviewBy": null, "reviewPriority": null, "note": "Sample magnitude; the EIA describes Hormuz as the world's most important oil transit chokepoint." }, { "id": "obs-hormuz-brent", "metricId": "brent-crude-price", "metricName": "Brent crude price", "value": 107.14, "unit": "USD/bbl", "dataMode": "live", "confidence": "medium", "asOf": "2026-05-31", "period": "May 2026 monthly average", "lastReviewed": "2026-06-04", "sourceId": "eia-brent", "subjectType": "chokepoint", "subjectId": "strait-of-hormuz", "relatedPath": "/chokepoints/strait-of-hormuz/economic-impact", "reviewStatus": "current", "recommendedReviewBy": "2026-07-15", "reviewPriority": "low", "note": "Source-reported May 2026 monthly average from the EIA Europe Brent Spot Price series; a market benchmark that may reflect many factors. Manually maintained static value, not real-time and not a causal attribution." }, { "id": "obs-redsea-suez", "metricId": "suez-transit-change", "metricName": "Suez Canal transit change", "value": "-42", "unit": "% vs. peak", "dataMode": "live", "confidence": "medium", "asOf": "2024-02-22", "period": "vs. peak, UNCTAD rapid assessment (Feb 2024)", "lastReviewed": "2026-06-05", "sourceId": "unctad-red-sea", "subjectType": "chokepoint", "subjectId": "red-sea-shipping", "relatedPath": "/chokepoints/red-sea-shipping/economic-impact", "reviewStatus": "stale", "recommendedReviewBy": "2024-08-20", "reviewPriority": "high", "note": "UNCTAD estimated that Suez Canal transits had decreased by 42% compared with their peak during the acute phase of the Red Sea disruption (rapid assessment, 22 February 2024). A dated source-reported snapshot, not real-time; a manual review against fresher data is recommended. Not a causal attribution to any single event." }, { "id": "obs-redsea-containers", "metricId": "suez-container-transit-change", "metricName": "Suez Canal container-ship transit change", "value": "-67", "unit": "% vs. baseline", "dataMode": "live", "confidence": "medium", "asOf": "2024-02-22", "period": "weekly transits, UNCTAD rapid assessment (Feb 2024)", "lastReviewed": "2026-06-05", "sourceId": "unctad-red-sea", "subjectType": "chokepoint", "subjectId": "red-sea-shipping", "relatedPath": "/chokepoints/red-sea-shipping/economic-impact", "reviewStatus": "stale", "recommendedReviewBy": "2024-08-20", "reviewPriority": "high", "note": "UNCTAD reported that weekly container-ship transits through the Suez Canal had fallen by 67% as major carriers suspended Suez transits (rapid assessment, 22 February 2024). A dated source-reported snapshot of the acute phase, not real-time; a manual review against fresher data is recommended." }, { "id": "obs-redsea-freight", "metricId": "asia-europe-freight", "metricName": "Asia–Europe container freight", "value": 3200, "unit": "USD/FEU", "dataMode": "sample", "confidence": "low", "asOf": "2026-05-01", "period": "sample period", "lastReviewed": null, "sourceId": "unctad", "subjectType": "chokepoint", "subjectId": "red-sea-shipping", "relatedPath": "/chokepoints/red-sea-shipping/economic-impact", "reviewStatus": null, "recommendedReviewBy": null, "reviewPriority": null, "note": "Sample value pending live data." }, { "id": "obs-defense-global", "metricId": "global-defense-spending", "metricName": "Global military expenditure", "value": 2887, "unit": "USD billion", "dataMode": "live", "confidence": "high", "asOf": "2025-12-31", "period": "2025 (annual)", "lastReviewed": "2026-06-05", "sourceId": "sipri-milex-2025", "subjectType": "dashboard", "subjectId": "defense-spending", "relatedPath": "/dashboards/defense-spending", "reviewStatus": "current", "recommendedReviewBy": "2027-07-01", "reviewPriority": "low", "note": "Annual estimate from SIPRI's Trends in World Military Expenditure, 2025; a source-linked static fixture, not real-time and not a causal attribution. May be revised in future SIPRI releases." }, { "id": "obs-defense-yoy", "metricId": "global-defense-spending-change", "metricName": "Global military expenditure — real-terms change", "value": 2.9, "unit": "%", "dataMode": "live", "confidence": "high", "asOf": "2025-12-31", "period": "2025 vs 2024, real terms", "lastReviewed": "2026-06-05", "sourceId": "sipri-milex-2025", "subjectType": "dashboard", "subjectId": "defense-spending", "relatedPath": "/dashboards/defense-spending", "reviewStatus": "current", "recommendedReviewBy": "2027-07-01", "reviewPriority": "low", "note": "Real-terms year-over-year change reported by SIPRI for 2025; an annual figure, not real-time. Reported alongside many factors and not a causal attribution." }, { "id": "obs-defense-nato2pct", "metricId": "nato-gdp-share", "metricName": "NATO defense spending (share at/above 2% GDP)", "value": 32, "unit": "allies", "dataMode": "live", "confidence": "medium", "asOf": "2025-12-31", "period": "2025 (all 32 allies)", "lastReviewed": "2026-06-05", "sourceId": "nato", "subjectType": "dashboard", "subjectId": "defense-spending", "relatedPath": "/dashboards/defense-spending", "reviewStatus": "current", "recommendedReviewBy": "2027-07-01", "reviewPriority": "low", "note": "NATO reports that in 2025 all 32 Allies met or exceeded the 2% of GDP defence-spending guideline, up from three Allies in 2014. An annual figure that may be revised; the 2% guideline has since been supplemented by a higher longer-term investment commitment. Manually maintained static value, not real-time and not a causal attribution." }, { "id": "obs-shipping-risk-index", "metricId": "shipping-risk-index", "metricName": "Global shipping-risk index", "value": 62, "unit": "index (0–100)", "dataMode": "sample", "confidence": "low", "asOf": "2026-05-01", "period": "illustrative composite", "lastReviewed": null, "sourceId": "unctad", "subjectType": "dashboard", "subjectId": "global-shipping-risk", "relatedPath": "/dashboards/global-shipping-risk", "reviewStatus": null, "recommendedReviewBy": null, "reviewPriority": null, "note": "Sample composite; methodology and inputs are placeholders pending live data." }, { "id": "obs-shipping-risk-suez", "metricId": "suez-trade-volume-change", "metricName": "Suez Canal trade-volume change", "value": "-50", "unit": "% YoY", "dataMode": "live", "confidence": "medium", "asOf": "2024-02-29", "period": "first two months of 2024 vs. 2023 (IMF PortWatch)", "lastReviewed": "2026-06-05", "sourceId": "imf-portwatch-red-sea", "subjectType": "dashboard", "subjectId": "global-shipping-risk", "relatedPath": "/dashboards/global-shipping-risk", "reviewStatus": "stale", "recommendedReviewBy": "2024-08-27", "reviewPriority": "high", "note": "IMF, drawing on the IMF/Oxford PortWatch platform, reported that the volume of trade transiting the Suez Canal fell by about 50% year over year in the first two months of 2024, while trade rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope rose by an estimated 74%. A dated point-in-time estimate, not real-time; a manual review against fresher PortWatch data is recommended." }, { "id": "obs-sanctions-crude-cap", "metricId": "russia-crude-price-cap", "metricName": "EU Russian crude oil price cap", "value": 44.1, "unit": "USD/bbl", "dataMode": "live", "confidence": "high", "asOf": "2026-02-01", "period": "EU dynamic cap (15% below 6-month average Urals), effective 1 February 2026", "lastReviewed": "2026-06-05", "sourceId": "ec-crude-cap-2026", "subjectType": "sanctions", "subjectId": "russia-energy-trade", "relatedPath": "/sanctions/russia-energy-trade/economic-impact", "reviewStatus": "due-soon", "recommendedReviewBy": "2026-07-31", "reviewPriority": "medium", "note": "Policy threshold for covered seaborne Russian crude oil. On 15 January 2026 the EU applied its automatic dynamic mechanism for the first time, lowering the cap from US$47.6 to US$44.10 per barrel, effective 1 February 2026 (kept 15% below the six-month average Urals price, reviewed every six months). The cap was originally US$60/bbl (from 5 December 2022, US$47.6 under the 18th package); the United States continued to apply the US$60 level. A policy parameter, not a market price; manually maintained static value, not real-time, and may be revised at the next review. Not legal or compliance advice." }, { "id": "obs-sanctions-us-crude-cap", "metricId": "us-g7-crude-price-cap", "metricName": "U.S./G7 Russian crude oil price cap", "value": 60, "unit": "USD/bbl", "dataMode": "live", "confidence": "high", "asOf": "2022-12-05", "period": "U.S./G7 Price Cap Coalition level, in effect since 5 December 2022", "lastReviewed": "2026-06-05", "sourceId": "us-treasury-russia-price-cap", "subjectType": "sanctions", "subjectId": "russia-energy-trade", "relatedPath": "/sanctions/russia-energy-trade/economic-impact", "reviewStatus": "stale", "recommendedReviewBy": "2023-06-03", "reviewPriority": "high", "note": "U.S./G7 source-of-record policy threshold for covered seaborne Russian-origin crude oil, set at US$60/bbl effective 5 December 2022 via an OFAC Determination under Executive Order 14071. The United States continued to apply US$60 while the EU lowered its cap (to US$47.6/bbl, then US$44.10/bbl from 1 February 2026), so the EU and U.S./G7 thresholds now differ. Re-reviewed 5 June 2026: no change to the US$60 U.S. level found — kept as a long-standing policy threshold (a historical effective date, not a wrongness signal). A policy threshold, not a market price; manually maintained static value, not real-time. Scope depends on official OFAC guidance and may change. Not legal or compliance advice." }, { "id": "obs-sanctions-products-cap", "metricId": "russia-products-price-cap", "metricName": "Russian refined products price cap (premium-to-crude)", "value": 100, "unit": "USD/bbl", "dataMode": "live", "confidence": "high", "asOf": "2023-02-05", "period": "premium-to-crude products (e.g. diesel), in effect since 5 February 2023", "lastReviewed": "2026-06-05", "sourceId": "ec-sanctions-energy", "subjectType": "sanctions", "subjectId": "russia-energy-trade", "relatedPath": "/sanctions/russia-energy-trade/economic-impact", "reviewStatus": "stale", "recommendedReviewBy": "2023-08-04", "reviewPriority": "high", "note": "Policy threshold for premium-to-crude seaborne Russian petroleum products (e.g. diesel, kerosene, gasoline) under the price-cap regime, in effect since 5 February 2023 at US$100/bbl (the discount-to-crude products cap is US$45/bbl). A fixed policy parameter, not a market price; manually maintained static value, not real-time, and may be revised. Not legal or compliance advice." }, { "id": "obs-sanctions-export-revenue", "metricId": "russia-fossil-export-revenue", "metricName": "Russia fossil fuel export revenue (CREA)", "value": 734, "unit": "EUR million/day", "dataMode": "live", "confidence": "medium", "asOf": "2026-04-30", "period": "April 2026 (daily average), up 4% month-on-month", "lastReviewed": "2026-06-05", "sourceId": "crea-russia-fossil-tracker", "subjectType": "sanctions", "subjectId": "russia-energy-trade", "relatedPath": "/sanctions/russia-energy-trade/economic-impact", "reviewStatus": "due-soon", "recommendedReviewBy": "2026-06-14", "reviewPriority": "medium", "note": "CREA-estimated daily-average Russian fossil fuel export revenue for April 2026 (EUR 734 million/day, reported up 4% month-on-month). An export-revenue estimate by an independent research organisation (authoritative research, not official government data); tracked alongside the sanctions/price-cap channel and many other factors, not a causal attribution. Manually maintained static value, not real-time, and may be revised. Not legal or compliance advice." }, { "id": "obs-sanctions-gas-share", "metricId": "eu-russian-gas-share", "metricName": "Russian gas share of EU gas imports", "value": 19, "unit": "% of EU gas imports", "dataMode": "live", "confidence": "high", "asOf": "2024-12-31", "period": "2024 (down from 45% in 2021)", "lastReviewed": "2026-06-05", "sourceId": "ec-repowereu", "subjectType": "sanctions", "subjectId": "russia-energy-trade", "relatedPath": "/sanctions/russia-energy-trade/economic-impact", "reviewStatus": "due-soon", "recommendedReviewBy": "2026-07-01", "reviewPriority": "medium", "note": "European Commission REPowerEU stocktake (May 2025): the Russian share of EU gas imports fell from 45% in 2021 to 19%, with a partial rebound in 2024. A source-reported annual figure tracked alongside the EU diversification channel and many other factors; not a causal attribution. Manually maintained static value, not real-time, and may be revised." }, { "id": "obs-shadow-eu-vessels", "metricId": "eu-shadow-fleet-vessels", "metricName": "EU-listed shadow-fleet vessels", "value": 632, "unit": "vessels", "dataMode": "live", "confidence": "high", "asOf": "2026-04-23", "period": "cumulative, as of the EU 20th sanctions package (23 April 2026)", "lastReviewed": "2026-06-05", "sourceId": "eu-council-shadow-fleet", "subjectType": "sanctions", "subjectId": "shadow-fleet-shipping-insurance", "relatedPath": "/sanctions/shadow-fleet-shipping-insurance/economic-impact", "reviewStatus": "current", "recommendedReviewBy": "2026-10-20", "reviewPriority": "low", "note": "As stated by the European Commission, a total of 632 vessels in Russia's shadow fleet are listed by the EU following the 20th sanctions package (adopted 23 April 2026; it added 46 and delisted 11), subject to port-access and maritime-service bans. Refreshed 5 June 2026 from the prior 557 (19th package) to 632 (20th package) — same metric and scope. A cumulative source-reported count as of that package; the figure may rise with new packages. A sanctions-evasion / enforcement indicator, manually maintained static value, not real-time. Not legal or compliance advice." }, { "id": "obs-shadow-ofac-vessels", "metricId": "ofac-designated-vessels", "metricName": "OFAC-designated Russia-related vessels", "value": 183, "unit": "vessels", "dataMode": "live", "confidence": "high", "asOf": "2025-01-10", "period": "designated in the 10 January 2025 OFAC action (143 tankers)", "lastReviewed": "2026-06-05", "sourceId": "us-treasury-jan2025-vessels", "subjectType": "sanctions", "subjectId": "shadow-fleet-shipping-insurance", "relatedPath": "/sanctions/shadow-fleet-shipping-insurance/economic-impact", "reviewStatus": "stale", "recommendedReviewBy": "2025-07-09", "reviewPriority": "high", "note": "The U.S. Treasury / OFAC sanctioned 183 vessels in its 10 January 2025 action intensifying sanctions on Russia's oil production and exports, most of them oil tankers tied to the shadow fleet (143 tankers). A source-reported count for a single dated action, not a cumulative total and not real-time. An enforcement indicator; scope depends on official OFAC guidance. Not legal or compliance advice." }, { "id": "obs-shadow-export-share", "metricId": "shadow-fleet-export-share", "metricName": "Shadow-fleet share of Russian oil exports", "value": 36, "unit": "% of exports (volume)", "dataMode": "live", "confidence": "medium", "asOf": "2023-09-25", "period": "cumulative since 5 December 2022, as reported by CREA (September 2023)", "lastReviewed": "2026-06-05", "sourceId": "crea-shadow-tankers", "subjectType": "sanctions", "subjectId": "shadow-fleet-shipping-insurance", "relatedPath": "/sanctions/shadow-fleet-shipping-insurance/economic-impact", "reviewStatus": "stale", "recommendedReviewBy": "2024-03-23", "reviewPriority": "high", "note": "CREA reported that 'shadow' tankers transported 36% of all Russian oil exports by volume (37% of crude, 30% of products) since the 5 December 2022 EU embargo/price cap, as of its September 2023 publication. A trade-rerouting estimate by an independent research organisation (authoritative research, not official government data); estimates vary by methodology and period. A dated cumulative snapshot, manually maintained static value, not real-time, and recommended for refresh. Not a causal attribution and not legal or compliance advice." }, { "id": "obs-frozen-eu-immobilized", "metricId": "immobilized-russian-assets-eu", "metricName": "Immobilized Russian central-bank assets (EU)", "value": 210, "unit": "EUR billion", "dataMode": "live", "confidence": "high", "asOf": "2025-12-12", "period": "immobilized in the EU (of about €260 billion worldwide)", "lastReviewed": "2026-06-05", "sourceId": "consilium-russia-sanctions", "subjectType": "sanctions", "subjectId": "frozen-russian-assets-ukraine-financing", "relatedPath": "/sanctions/frozen-russian-assets-ukraine-financing/economic-impact", "reviewStatus": "due-soon", "recommendedReviewBy": "2026-06-10", "reviewPriority": "medium", "note": "As reported by the EU, around €210 billion of Central Bank of Russia assets are immobilized in the EU (of about €260 billion worldwide, more than two-thirds in the EU); in December 2025 the EU decided to keep them immobilized indefinitely. This is the principal immobilized total — the assets are immobilized, not confiscated, and this figure is distinct from the proceeds they generate. A sovereign-asset-channel indicator, manually maintained static value, not real-time. Not legal or compliance advice." }, { "id": "obs-frozen-g7-era", "metricId": "g7-era-loans", "metricName": "G7 ERA loans to Ukraine (total)", "value": 50, "unit": "USD billion", "dataMode": "live", "confidence": "high", "asOf": "2024-10-25", "period": "G7 ERA loan initiative total (announced 2024; US$20 billion U.S. tranche disbursed)", "lastReviewed": "2026-06-05", "sourceId": "us-treasury-era", "subjectType": "sanctions", "subjectId": "frozen-russian-assets-ukraine-financing", "relatedPath": "/sanctions/frozen-russian-assets-ukraine-financing/economic-impact", "reviewStatus": "stale", "recommendedReviewBy": "2025-04-23", "reviewPriority": "high", "note": "The G7 Extraordinary Revenue Acceleration (ERA) loan initiative provides about US$50 billion for Ukraine, to be repaid from the windfall proceeds generated by immobilized Russian sovereign assets — financed by proceeds, not the principal assets. The U.S. Treasury disbursed a US$20 billion tranche. A Ukraine-financing indicator; announcements and disbursements differ. Manually maintained static value, not real-time. Not legal or compliance advice." }, { "id": "obs-frozen-eu-era", "metricId": "eu-era-contribution", "metricName": "EU contribution to G7 ERA loans", "value": 18.1, "unit": "EUR billion", "dataMode": "live", "confidence": "high", "asOf": "2025-01-10", "period": "EU contribution to the G7 ERA loans (first €3 billion tranche, January 2025)", "lastReviewed": "2026-06-05", "sourceId": "ec-era-loan", "subjectType": "sanctions", "subjectId": "frozen-russian-assets-ukraine-financing", "relatedPath": "/sanctions/frozen-russian-assets-ukraine-financing/economic-impact", "reviewStatus": "stale", "recommendedReviewBy": "2025-07-09", "reviewPriority": "high", "note": "The EU's €18.1 billion exceptional Macro-Financial Assistance loan is its contribution to the G7 ERA loan initiative, repaid from the extraordinary revenues/proceeds of immobilized Russian assets (estimated by the EC at up to €2.5–3 billion a year); the first €3 billion tranche was disbursed in January 2025. A Ukraine-financing indicator; the committed loan differs from amounts actually disbursed. Manually maintained static value, not real-time. Not legal or compliance advice." }, { "id": "obs-circumvention-eu-entities", "metricId": "eu-circumvention-entities", "metricName": "EU-listed entities supporting Russia's military-industrial base / circumvention", "value": 60, "unit": "entities", "dataMode": "live", "confidence": "high", "asOf": "2026-04-23", "period": "EU 20th sanctions package (28 of 60 in third countries), 23 April 2026", "lastReviewed": "2026-06-05", "sourceId": "ec-circumvention-20th", "subjectType": "sanctions", "subjectId": "secondary-sanctions-circumvention", "relatedPath": "/sanctions/secondary-sanctions-circumvention/economic-impact", "reviewStatus": "current", "recommendedReviewBy": "2026-10-20", "reviewPriority": "low", "note": "As stated by the European Commission, the 20th sanctions package (23 April 2026) added 60 entities providing direct or indirect support to Russia's military-industrial complex or engaged in sanctions circumvention — 32 in Russia and 28 in third countries (e.g. China, the UAE, Türkiye). The EU also activated its anti-circumvention tool against the Kyrgyz Republic for the first time. A source-reported per-package count, not a cumulative total; manually maintained static value, not real-time. An enforcement indicator, not legal or compliance advice." }, { "id": "obs-circumvention-chpl", "metricId": "common-high-priority-items", "metricName": "Common High Priority Items (export-control list)", "value": 50, "unit": "items", "dataMode": "live", "confidence": "high", "asOf": "2024-02-23", "period": "Common High Priority Items, version of February 2024 (EU/US/UK/Japan)", "lastReviewed": "2026-06-05", "sourceId": "ec-chpl", "subjectType": "sanctions", "subjectId": "secondary-sanctions-circumvention", "relatedPath": "/sanctions/secondary-sanctions-circumvention/economic-impact", "reviewStatus": "stale", "recommendedReviewBy": "2024-08-21", "reviewPriority": "high", "note": "The Common High Priority Items list — jointly maintained by the EU, US, UK, and Japan — covers 50 six-digit HS codes as of the February 2024 update: battlefield/dual-use goods at high risk of diversion to Russia via third countries. A policy/export-control parameter, not a market value; manually maintained static value, not real-time, and may be expanded in later updates. Not legal or compliance advice." }, { "id": "obs-panama-transits", "metricId": "panama-canal-transits", "metricName": "Panama Canal vessel transits", "value": 9944, "unit": "transits", "dataMode": "live", "confidence": "high", "asOf": "2025-09-30", "period": "FY2024 (1 Oct 2023–30 Sep 2024), Panama Canal Authority", "lastReviewed": "2026-06-05", "sourceId": "panama-canal-authority", "subjectType": "chokepoint", "subjectId": "panama-canal", "relatedPath": "/chokepoints/panama-canal/economic-impact", "reviewStatus": "current", "recommendedReviewBy": "2027-03-31", "reviewPriority": "low", "note": "The Panama Canal Authority reported 9,944 deep-draft transits in fiscal year 2024 (2,856 neopanamax and 7,088 panamax), down from 14,080 in FY2023 as a severe drought forced draft and booking restrictions. An official annual figure, manually transcribed as a static fixture; not real-time." }, { "id": "obs-panama-revenue", "metricId": "panama-canal-revenue", "metricName": "Panama Canal toll revenue", "value": 4.99, "unit": "USD billion (balboas, 1:1 USD)", "dataMode": "live", "confidence": "high", "asOf": "2025-09-30", "period": "FY2024 total revenue, Panama Canal Authority", "lastReviewed": "2026-06-05", "sourceId": "panama-canal-authority", "subjectType": "chokepoint", "subjectId": "panama-canal", "relatedPath": "/chokepoints/panama-canal/economic-impact", "reviewStatus": "current", "recommendedReviewBy": "2027-03-31", "reviewPriority": "low", "note": "The Panama Canal Authority reported total FY2024 revenue of 4.99 billion balboas (the balboa is pegged 1:1 to the U.S. dollar), above budget and slightly above FY2023 despite fewer transits, as draft-based pricing and slot auctions offset lower volume. An official annual figure, not real-time." }, { "id": "obs-panama-oil-2q25", "metricId": "chokepoint-oil-transit", "metricName": "Chokepoint oil & petroleum liquids transit", "value": 2.4, "unit": "million bbl/day", "dataMode": "live", "confidence": "high", "asOf": "2025-06-30", "period": "2Q2025 average (EIA STEO)", "lastReviewed": "2026-06-05", "sourceId": "eia-steo-chokepoints", "subjectType": "chokepoint", "subjectId": "panama-canal", "relatedPath": "/chokepoints/panama-canal/economic-impact", "reviewStatus": "overdue", "recommendedReviewBy": "2025-12-27", "reviewPriority": "high", "note": "EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook estimate of crude oil and petroleum liquids transported through the Panama Canal, second-quarter 2025 average. A quarterly snapshot, not real-time; recommended for review against EIA's next update." }, { "id": "obs-panama-oil-1q25", "metricId": "chokepoint-oil-transit", "metricName": "Chokepoint oil & petroleum liquids transit", "value": 2.8, "unit": "million bbl/day", "dataMode": "live", "confidence": "high", "asOf": "2025-03-31", "period": "1Q2025 average (EIA STEO)", "lastReviewed": "2026-06-05", "sourceId": "eia-steo-chokepoints", "subjectType": "chokepoint", "subjectId": "panama-canal", "relatedPath": "/chokepoints/panama-canal/economic-impact", "reviewStatus": "stale", "recommendedReviewBy": "2025-09-27", "reviewPriority": "high", "note": "EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook estimate of crude oil and petroleum liquids transported through the Panama Canal, first-quarter 2025 average. A quarterly snapshot, not real-time; shown alongside the 2Q2025 figure as a short trend." }, { "id": "obs-malacca-oil-2q25", "metricId": "chokepoint-oil-transit", "metricName": "Chokepoint oil & petroleum liquids transit", "value": 22.8, "unit": "million bbl/day", "dataMode": "live", "confidence": "high", "asOf": "2025-06-30", "period": "2Q2025 average (EIA STEO)", "lastReviewed": "2026-06-05", "sourceId": "eia-steo-chokepoints", "subjectType": "chokepoint", "subjectId": "strait-of-malacca", "relatedPath": "/chokepoints/strait-of-malacca/economic-impact", "reviewStatus": "overdue", "recommendedReviewBy": "2025-12-27", "reviewPriority": "high", "note": "EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook estimate of crude oil and petroleum liquids transported through the Strait of Malacca, second-quarter 2025 average — the world's second-largest oil chokepoint after Hormuz. A quarterly snapshot, not real-time." }, { "id": "obs-malacca-oil-1q25", "metricId": "chokepoint-oil-transit", "metricName": "Chokepoint oil & petroleum liquids transit", "value": 21.7, "unit": "million bbl/day", "dataMode": "live", "confidence": "high", "asOf": "2025-03-31", "period": "1Q2025 average (EIA STEO)", "lastReviewed": "2026-06-05", "sourceId": "eia-steo-chokepoints", "subjectType": "chokepoint", "subjectId": "strait-of-malacca", "relatedPath": "/chokepoints/strait-of-malacca/economic-impact", "reviewStatus": "stale", "recommendedReviewBy": "2025-09-27", "reviewPriority": "high", "note": "EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook estimate of crude oil and petroleum liquids transported through the Strait of Malacca, first-quarter 2025 average. A quarterly snapshot, not real-time; shown alongside the 2Q2025 figure as a short trend." }, { "id": "obs-babelmandeb-oil-2q25", "metricId": "chokepoint-oil-transit", "metricName": "Chokepoint oil & petroleum liquids transit", "value": 4.3, "unit": "million bbl/day", "dataMode": "live", "confidence": "high", "asOf": "2025-06-30", "period": "2Q2025 average (EIA STEO)", "lastReviewed": "2026-06-05", "sourceId": "eia-steo-chokepoints", "subjectType": "chokepoint", "subjectId": "bab-el-mandeb", "relatedPath": "/chokepoints/bab-el-mandeb/economic-impact", "reviewStatus": "overdue", "recommendedReviewBy": "2025-12-27", "reviewPriority": "high", "note": "EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook estimate of crude oil and petroleum liquids transported through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, second-quarter 2025 average. Volumes are well below pre-2024 levels as Red Sea security disruption diverts tankers around the Cape of Good Hope. A quarterly snapshot, not real-time." }, { "id": "obs-babelmandeb-oil-1q25", "metricId": "chokepoint-oil-transit", "metricName": "Chokepoint oil & petroleum liquids transit", "value": 3.7, "unit": "million bbl/day", "dataMode": "live", "confidence": "high", "asOf": "2025-03-31", "period": "1Q2025 average (EIA STEO)", "lastReviewed": "2026-06-05", "sourceId": "eia-steo-chokepoints", "subjectType": "chokepoint", "subjectId": "bab-el-mandeb", "relatedPath": "/chokepoints/bab-el-mandeb/economic-impact", "reviewStatus": "stale", "recommendedReviewBy": "2025-09-27", "reviewPriority": "high", "note": "EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook estimate of crude oil and petroleum liquids transported through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, first-quarter 2025 average. A quarterly snapshot, not real-time; shown alongside the 2Q2025 figure as a short trend." }, { "id": "obs-turkish-oil-2q25", "metricId": "chokepoint-oil-transit", "metricName": "Chokepoint oil & petroleum liquids transit", "value": 3.7, "unit": "million bbl/day", "dataMode": "live", "confidence": "high", "asOf": "2025-06-30", "period": "2Q2025 average (EIA STEO)", "lastReviewed": "2026-06-05", "sourceId": "eia-steo-chokepoints", "subjectType": "chokepoint", "subjectId": "turkish-straits", "relatedPath": "/chokepoints/turkish-straits/economic-impact", "reviewStatus": "overdue", "recommendedReviewBy": "2025-12-27", "reviewPriority": "high", "note": "EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook estimate of crude oil and petroleum liquids transported through the Turkish Straits (Bosporus and Dardanelles), second-quarter 2025 average — predominantly crude oil from Russia, the Caspian, and the Black Sea. A quarterly snapshot, not real-time." }, { "id": "obs-turkish-oil-1q25", "metricId": "chokepoint-oil-transit", "metricName": "Chokepoint oil & petroleum liquids transit", "value": 3.6, "unit": "million bbl/day", "dataMode": "live", "confidence": "high", "asOf": "2025-03-31", "period": "1Q2025 average (EIA STEO)", "lastReviewed": "2026-06-05", "sourceId": "eia-steo-chokepoints", "subjectType": "chokepoint", "subjectId": "turkish-straits", "relatedPath": "/chokepoints/turkish-straits/economic-impact", "reviewStatus": "stale", "recommendedReviewBy": "2025-09-27", "reviewPriority": "high", "note": "EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook estimate of crude oil and petroleum liquids transported through the Turkish Straits, first-quarter 2025 average. A quarterly snapshot, not real-time; shown alongside the 2Q2025 figure as a short trend." }, { "id": "obs-danish-oil-2q25", "metricId": "chokepoint-oil-transit", "metricName": "Chokepoint oil & petroleum liquids transit", "value": 4.7, "unit": "million bbl/day", "dataMode": "live", "confidence": "high", "asOf": "2025-06-30", "period": "2Q2025 average (EIA STEO)", "lastReviewed": "2026-06-05", "sourceId": "eia-steo-chokepoints", "subjectType": "chokepoint", "subjectId": "danish-straits", "relatedPath": "/chokepoints/danish-straits/economic-impact", "reviewStatus": "overdue", "recommendedReviewBy": "2025-12-27", "reviewPriority": "high", "note": "EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook estimate of crude oil and petroleum liquids transported through the Danish Straits, second-quarter 2025 average — a primary route for seaborne Russian and Baltic crude and product exports. A quarterly snapshot, not real-time." }, { "id": "obs-danish-oil-1q25", "metricId": "chokepoint-oil-transit", "metricName": "Chokepoint oil & petroleum liquids transit", "value": 4.8, "unit": "million bbl/day", "dataMode": "live", "confidence": "high", "asOf": "2025-03-31", "period": "1Q2025 average (EIA STEO)", "lastReviewed": "2026-06-05", "sourceId": "eia-steo-chokepoints", "subjectType": "chokepoint", "subjectId": "danish-straits", "relatedPath": "/chokepoints/danish-straits/economic-impact", "reviewStatus": "stale", "recommendedReviewBy": "2025-09-27", "reviewPriority": "high", "note": "EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook estimate of crude oil and petroleum liquids transported through the Danish Straits, first-quarter 2025 average. A quarterly snapshot, not real-time; shown alongside the 2Q2025 figure as a short trend." }, { "id": "obs-oil-brent-spot", "metricId": "brent-crude-price", "metricName": "Brent crude price", "value": 92.88, "unit": "USD/bbl", "dataMode": "live", "confidence": "high", "asOf": "2026-05-29", "period": "Europe Brent spot, 29 May 2026 (EIA)", "lastReviewed": "2026-06-05", "sourceId": "eia-spot-prices", "subjectType": "commodity", "subjectId": "oil-benchmarks", "relatedPath": "/commodities/oil-benchmarks/economic-impact", "reviewStatus": "current", "recommendedReviewBy": "2026-07-13", "reviewPriority": "low", "note": "EIA Europe Brent crude spot price, 29 May 2026. A source-reported daily spot value (distinct from a monthly average), manually transcribed as a static fixture; not real-time. A market benchmark, not a causal attribution." }, { "id": "obs-oil-wti-spot", "metricId": "wti-crude-price", "metricName": "WTI crude price", "value": 91.16, "unit": "USD/bbl", "dataMode": "live", "confidence": "high", "asOf": "2026-05-29", "period": "Cushing WTI spot, 29 May 2026 (EIA)", "lastReviewed": "2026-06-05", "sourceId": "eia-spot-prices", "subjectType": "commodity", "subjectId": "oil-benchmarks", "relatedPath": "/commodities/oil-benchmarks/economic-impact", "reviewStatus": "current", "recommendedReviewBy": "2026-07-13", "reviewPriority": "low", "note": "EIA Cushing, Oklahoma WTI crude spot price, 29 May 2026. A source-reported daily spot value, manually transcribed as a static fixture; not real-time. A market benchmark, not a causal attribution." }, { "id": "obs-gas-henryhub-may26", "metricId": "henry-hub-gas-price", "metricName": "Henry Hub natural gas price", "value": 2.94, "unit": "USD/MMBtu", "dataMode": "live", "confidence": "high", "asOf": "2026-05-31", "period": "Henry Hub, May 2026 average (EIA)", "lastReviewed": "2026-06-05", "sourceId": "eia-henry-hub", "subjectType": "commodity", "subjectId": "natural-gas", "relatedPath": "/commodities/natural-gas/economic-impact", "reviewStatus": "current", "recommendedReviewBy": "2026-07-15", "reviewPriority": "low", "note": "EIA Henry Hub natural gas spot price, May 2026 monthly average. Manually transcribed as a static fixture; not real-time. A market benchmark, not a causal attribution." }, { "id": "obs-gas-henryhub-apr26", "metricId": "henry-hub-gas-price", "metricName": "Henry Hub natural gas price", "value": 2.77, "unit": "USD/MMBtu", "dataMode": "live", "confidence": "high", "asOf": "2026-04-30", "period": "Henry Hub, April 2026 average (EIA)", "lastReviewed": "2026-06-05", "sourceId": "eia-henry-hub", "subjectType": "commodity", "subjectId": "natural-gas", "relatedPath": "/commodities/natural-gas/economic-impact", "reviewStatus": "due-soon", "recommendedReviewBy": "2026-06-14", "reviewPriority": "medium", "note": "EIA Henry Hub natural gas spot price, April 2026 monthly average. Shown alongside the May 2026 figure as a short trend; not real-time." }, { "id": "obs-food-fpi", "metricId": "fao-food-price-index", "metricName": "FAO Food Price Index", "value": 130.8, "unit": "index (2014–2016 = 100)", "dataMode": "live", "confidence": "high", "asOf": "2026-05-31", "period": "FAO Food Price Index, May 2026", "lastReviewed": "2026-06-05", "sourceId": "fao-fpi", "subjectType": "commodity", "subjectId": "food-prices", "relatedPath": "/commodities/food-prices/economic-impact", "reviewStatus": "current", "recommendedReviewBy": "2026-07-15", "reviewPriority": "low", "note": "FAO Food Price Index averaged 130.8 points in May 2026 (down 0.2 points from the revised April level). A global food-commodity benchmark; also tracked on the Russia–Ukraine page alongside the food channel. Not a causal attribution." }, { "id": "obs-food-cereal", "metricId": "fao-food-subindex", "metricName": "FAO food price sub-index", "value": 114.3, "unit": "index (2014–2016 = 100)", "dataMode": "live", "confidence": "high", "asOf": "2026-05-31", "period": "FAO Cereal Price Index, May 2026", "lastReviewed": "2026-06-05", "sourceId": "fao-fpi", "subjectType": "commodity", "subjectId": "food-prices", "relatedPath": "/commodities/food-prices/economic-impact", "reviewStatus": "current", "recommendedReviewBy": "2026-07-15", "reviewPriority": "low", "note": "FAO Cereal Price Index, May 2026 (2014–2016 = 100). Cereals (wheat, maize, rice) are the food sub-index most exposed to the Black Sea / Ukraine grain channel. A benchmark, not a causal attribution." }, { "id": "obs-food-vegoil", "metricId": "fao-food-subindex", "metricName": "FAO food price sub-index", "value": 185, "unit": "index (2014–2016 = 100)", "dataMode": "live", "confidence": "high", "asOf": "2026-05-31", "period": "FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index, May 2026", "lastReviewed": "2026-06-05", "sourceId": "fao-fpi", "subjectType": "commodity", "subjectId": "food-prices", "relatedPath": "/commodities/food-prices/economic-impact", "reviewStatus": "current", "recommendedReviewBy": "2026-07-15", "reviewPriority": "low", "note": "FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index, May 2026 (2014–2016 = 100) — the highest of the FAO sub-indices. A benchmark, not a causal attribution." }, { "id": "obs-food-dairy", "metricId": "fao-food-subindex", "metricName": "FAO food price sub-index", "value": 119.2, "unit": "index (2014–2016 = 100)", "dataMode": "live", "confidence": "high", "asOf": "2026-05-31", "period": "FAO Dairy Price Index, May 2026", "lastReviewed": "2026-06-05", "sourceId": "fao-fpi", "subjectType": "commodity", "subjectId": "food-prices", "relatedPath": "/commodities/food-prices/economic-impact", "reviewStatus": "current", "recommendedReviewBy": "2026-07-15", "reviewPriority": "low", "note": "FAO Dairy Price Index, May 2026 (2014–2016 = 100). A benchmark, not a causal attribution." }, { "id": "obs-food-meat", "metricId": "fao-food-subindex", "metricName": "FAO food price sub-index", "value": 130.5, "unit": "index (2014–2016 = 100)", "dataMode": "live", "confidence": "high", "asOf": "2026-05-31", "period": "FAO Meat Price Index, May 2026", "lastReviewed": "2026-06-05", "sourceId": "fao-fpi", "subjectType": "commodity", "subjectId": "food-prices", "relatedPath": "/commodities/food-prices/economic-impact", "reviewStatus": "current", "recommendedReviewBy": "2026-07-15", "reviewPriority": "low", "note": "FAO Meat Price Index, May 2026 (2014–2016 = 100). A benchmark, not a causal attribution." }, { "id": "obs-food-sugar", "metricId": "fao-food-subindex", "metricName": "FAO food price sub-index", "value": 95.1, "unit": "index (2014–2016 = 100)", "dataMode": "live", "confidence": "high", "asOf": "2026-05-31", "period": "FAO Sugar Price Index, May 2026", "lastReviewed": "2026-06-05", "sourceId": "fao-fpi", "subjectType": "commodity", "subjectId": "food-prices", "relatedPath": "/commodities/food-prices/economic-impact", "reviewStatus": "current", "recommendedReviewBy": "2026-07-15", "reviewPriority": "low", "note": "FAO Sugar Price Index, May 2026 (2014–2016 = 100) — the only major FAO sub-index below its 2014–2016 base. A benchmark, not a causal attribution." }, { "id": "obs-defense-us-2025", "metricId": "country-military-expenditure", "metricName": "Country military expenditure", "value": 954, "unit": "USD billion", "dataMode": "live", "confidence": "high", "asOf": "2025-12-31", "period": "United States military expenditure, 2025 (SIPRI)", "lastReviewed": "2026-06-05", "sourceId": "sipri-milex-2025", "subjectType": "dashboard", "subjectId": "defense-spending", "relatedPath": "/dashboards/defense-spending", "reviewStatus": "current", "recommendedReviewBy": "2027-07-01", "reviewPriority": "low", "note": "SIPRI estimate of U.S. military expenditure in 2025: US$954 billion, which SIPRI reported as a 7.5% real-terms fall from 2024 — still the world's largest. An annual figure, manually maintained from SIPRI's reporting; not real-time." }, { "id": "obs-defense-china-2025", "metricId": "country-military-expenditure", "metricName": "Country military expenditure", "value": 336, "unit": "USD billion", "dataMode": "live", "confidence": "high", "asOf": "2025-12-31", "period": "China military expenditure, 2025 (SIPRI estimate)", "lastReviewed": "2026-06-05", "sourceId": "sipri-milex-2025", "subjectType": "dashboard", "subjectId": "defense-spending", "relatedPath": "/dashboards/defense-spending", "reviewStatus": "current", "recommendedReviewBy": "2027-07-01", "reviewPriority": "low", "note": "SIPRI estimate of China's military expenditure in 2025: about US$336 billion (a 7.4% real-terms rise), the world's second-largest. An estimate, manually maintained from SIPRI's reporting; not real-time." }, { "id": "obs-defense-russia-2025", "metricId": "country-military-expenditure", "metricName": "Country military expenditure", "value": 190, "unit": "USD billion", "dataMode": "live", "confidence": "high", "asOf": "2025-12-31", "period": "Russia military expenditure, 2025 (SIPRI estimate)", "lastReviewed": "2026-06-05", "sourceId": "sipri-milex-2025", "subjectType": "dashboard", "subjectId": "defense-spending", "relatedPath": "/dashboards/defense-spending", "reviewStatus": "current", "recommendedReviewBy": "2027-07-01", "reviewPriority": "low", "note": "SIPRI estimate of Russia's military expenditure in 2025: about US$190 billion (a 5.9% real-terms rise, ~7.5% of GDP), the world's third-largest. An estimate, manually maintained from SIPRI's reporting; not real-time." } ], "facts": [ { "id": "fact-ukr-energy", "subjectType": "conflict", "subjectId": "russia-ukraine", "statement": "The war is associated with significant disruption to European energy supply and a reordering of oil and gas trade flows.", "sourceId": "iea", "confidence": "high", "dataMode": "sample", "tags": [ "energy" ] }, { "id": "fact-ukr-food", "subjectType": "conflict", "subjectId": "russia-ukraine", "statement": "Ukraine and Russia are major exporters of grain, oilseeds, and fertilizer inputs, so disruptions are tracked alongside global food-price pressure.", "sourceId": "fao", "confidence": "high", "dataMode": "sample", "tags": [ "food" ] }, { "id": "fact-ukr-reconstruction", "subjectType": "conflict", "subjectId": "russia-ukraine", "statement": "The Government of Ukraine, World Bank, European Commission, and UN estimate reconstruction and recovery needs at about USD 524 billion over the next decade, as of December 2024 (RDNA4); such estimates are periodically revised.", "value": "~USD 524 billion (as of Dec 2024)", "asOf": "2024-12-31", "sourceId": "wb-rdna4", "confidence": "medium", "dataMode": "sample", "tags": [ "macro", "reconstruction" ] }, { "id": "fact-ukr-support", "subjectType": "conflict", "subjectId": "russia-ukraine", "statement": "Allied financial, humanitarian, and military support to Ukraine has been tracked cumulatively by independent researchers.", "sourceId": "kse", "confidence": "medium", "dataMode": "sample", "tags": [ "macro", "support" ] }, { "id": "fact-hormuz-chokepoint", "subjectType": "chokepoint", "subjectId": "strait-of-hormuz", "statement": "The Strait of Hormuz is described as the world's most important oil transit chokepoint, with limited alternative pipeline capacity.", "sourceId": "eia", "confidence": "high", "dataMode": "sample", "tags": [ "energy" ] }, { "id": "fact-hormuz-price", "subjectType": "chokepoint", "subjectId": "strait-of-hormuz", "statement": "Perceived transit risk in the strait is commonly tracked alongside movements in crude oil benchmark prices.", "sourceId": "eia", "confidence": "medium", "dataMode": "sample", "tags": [ "energy", "markets" ] }, { "id": "fact-redsea-route", "subjectType": "chokepoint", "subjectId": "red-sea-shipping", "statement": "The Red Sea corridor is a primary Europe–Asia trade route; reduced transits are associated with diversions around the Cape of Good Hope.", "sourceId": "unctad", "confidence": "high", "dataMode": "sample", "tags": [ "shipping", "trade" ] }, { "id": "fact-redsea-cost", "subjectType": "chokepoint", "subjectId": "red-sea-shipping", "statement": "Longer reroutes are associated with higher freight costs, increased fuel use, and longer delivery lead times.", "sourceId": "unctad", "confidence": "medium", "dataMode": "sample", "tags": [ "shipping", "trade" ] }, { "id": "fact-redsea-sca-recovery", "subjectType": "chokepoint", "subjectId": "red-sea-shipping", "statement": "Suez Canal Authority statistics reported 12,758 vessels transiting in 2025 (524.5 million net tons), down from 13,213 vessels (522.1 million tons) in 2024 — a partial, uneven recovery still below pre-disruption levels, with container-ship transits reported about 18% lower year over year.", "value": "12,758 vessels in 2025 (SCA-reported)", "asOf": "2025-12-31", "sourceId": "sca", "confidence": "medium", "dataMode": "sample", "tags": [ "shipping", "trade" ] }, { "id": "fact-redsea-rmt2024", "subjectType": "chokepoint", "subjectId": "red-sea-shipping", "statement": "UNCTAD's Review of Maritime Transport 2024 reported that by mid-2024 tonnage transiting the Suez Canal was down about 70% while Cape of Good Hope traffic rose about 89%, as vessels diverted around Africa — a newer official assessment that complements the February 2024 rapid assessment.", "value": "Suez tonnage −70%; Cape +89% (mid-2024)", "asOf": "2024-10-31", "sourceId": "unctad-rmt-2024", "confidence": "high", "dataMode": "sample", "tags": [ "shipping", "trade" ] }, { "id": "fact-panama-tonnage", "subjectType": "chokepoint", "subjectId": "panama-canal", "statement": "The Panama Canal Authority reported about 423 million tons transited in fiscal year 2024, down from prior years as drought-driven draft and slot restrictions cut traffic.", "value": "~423 million tons (FY2024, ACP)", "asOf": "2025-09-30", "sourceId": "panama-canal-authority", "confidence": "high", "dataMode": "sample", "tags": [ "trade", "shipping" ] }, { "id": "fact-panama-drought", "subjectType": "chokepoint", "subjectId": "panama-canal", "statement": "A severe 2023–2024 drought forced the canal to cut daily transit slots and draft, reducing FY2024 deep-draft transits about 29% versus FY2023 — a freshwater-availability constraint rather than a security disruption.", "value": "9,944 vs 14,080 transits (FY2024 vs FY2023)", "asOf": "2025-09-30", "sourceId": "panama-canal-authority", "confidence": "high", "dataMode": "sample", "tags": [ "trade", "shipping" ] }, { "id": "fact-malacca-rank", "subjectType": "chokepoint", "subjectId": "strait-of-malacca", "statement": "After the Strait of Hormuz, the Strait of Malacca is the world's busiest oil transit chokepoint by volume, carrying crude and petroleum products toward East Asian markets.", "sourceId": "eia-steo-chokepoints", "confidence": "high", "dataMode": "sample", "tags": [ "energy", "trade" ] }, { "id": "fact-babelmandeb-diversion", "subjectType": "chokepoint", "subjectId": "bab-el-mandeb", "statement": "Red Sea security disruption since late 2023 has pushed many tankers off the Bab el-Mandeb and Suez route onto the longer voyage around the Cape of Good Hope, lowering oil flows through the strait.", "sourceId": "eia-steo-chokepoints", "confidence": "high", "dataMode": "sample", "tags": [ "shipping", "energy" ] }, { "id": "fact-turkish-crude", "subjectType": "chokepoint", "subjectId": "turkish-straits", "statement": "Flows through the Turkish Straits are predominantly crude oil moving from Russian, Caspian, and Black Sea ports toward the Mediterranean and world markets.", "sourceId": "eia-steo-chokepoints", "confidence": "medium", "dataMode": "sample", "tags": [ "energy", "trade" ] }, { "id": "fact-danish-route", "subjectType": "chokepoint", "subjectId": "danish-straits", "statement": "The Danish Straits are a primary outlet for seaborne Russian and Baltic crude and petroleum-product exports to global markets, making them central to sanctions and shadow-fleet attention in the Baltic.", "sourceId": "eia-steo-chokepoints", "confidence": "medium", "dataMode": "sample", "tags": [ "energy", "trade" ] }, { "id": "fact-oil-benchmarks", "subjectType": "commodity", "subjectId": "oil-benchmarks", "statement": "Brent and WTI are the two most-watched crude oil benchmarks; the Brent–WTI spread reflects differences between waterborne international crude and U.S. landlocked crude. Warconomy tracks them as market benchmarks alongside conflict and chokepoint risk, not as causal attributions.", "sourceId": "eia-spot-prices", "confidence": "high", "dataMode": "sample", "tags": [ "energy", "markets" ] }, { "id": "fact-natural-gas", "subjectType": "commodity", "subjectId": "natural-gas", "statement": "Henry Hub is the U.S. natural gas benchmark; European and Asian gas benchmarks (e.g. TTF, JKM) can move very differently, so a single gas price does not capture the global market. Tracked as a benchmark, not a causal attribution.", "sourceId": "eia-henry-hub", "confidence": "medium", "dataMode": "sample", "tags": [ "energy", "markets" ] }, { "id": "fact-food-prices", "subjectType": "commodity", "subjectId": "food-prices", "statement": "The FAO Food Price Index is a trade-weighted basket of five sub-indices (cereals, vegetable oils, dairy, meat, sugar). It is a global benchmark of international food-commodity prices, tracked alongside the food-security channel of conflict and trade disruption — not a measure of any single event's impact.", "sourceId": "fao-fpi", "confidence": "high", "dataMode": "sample", "tags": [ "food", "markets" ] }, { "id": "fact-defense-global-2024", "subjectType": "dashboard", "subjectId": "defense-spending", "statement": "SIPRI reports world military expenditure reached US$2,718 billion in 2024, a 9.4% increase that was the steepest year-on-year rise since at least 1988 — the predecessor point to the 2025 total.", "value": "US$2,718 bn (world, 2024)", "asOf": "2024-12-31", "sourceId": "sipri-milex-2024", "confidence": "high", "dataMode": "sample", "tags": [ "defense" ] }, { "id": "fact-defense-global", "subjectType": "dashboard", "subjectId": "defense-spending", "statement": "SIPRI reports that world military expenditure rose for the eleventh consecutive year in 2025, continuing a sustained multi-year increase.", "sourceId": "sipri-milex-2025", "confidence": "high", "dataMode": "sample", "tags": [ "defense" ] }, { "id": "fact-defense-top3", "subjectType": "dashboard", "subjectId": "defense-spending", "statement": "SIPRI reports the top three spenders — the United States, China, and Russia — spent a combined US$1,480 billion in 2025, about 51% of the global total.", "value": "US$1,480 bn (top 3, 2025)", "asOf": "2025-12-31", "sourceId": "sipri-milex-2025", "confidence": "high", "dataMode": "sample", "tags": [ "defense" ] }, { "id": "fact-defense-top5", "subjectType": "dashboard", "subjectId": "defense-spending", "statement": "SIPRI reports the five biggest spenders in 2025 — the United States, China, Russia, Germany, and India — together accounted for 58% of world military spending.", "value": "58% of world total (top 5, 2025)", "asOf": "2025-12-31", "sourceId": "sipri-milex-2025", "confidence": "high", "dataMode": "sample", "tags": [ "defense" ] }, { "id": "fact-shipping-risk", "subjectType": "dashboard", "subjectId": "global-shipping-risk", "statement": "Maritime disruption risk varies across chokepoints; UNCTAD reports on trade and transport impacts of such disruptions.", "sourceId": "unctad", "confidence": "medium", "dataMode": "sample", "tags": [ "shipping" ] }, { "id": "fact-sanctions-cap-history", "subjectType": "sanctions", "subjectId": "russia-energy-trade", "statement": "The G7, EU, and Australia first set the price cap on seaborne Russian crude oil at US$60 per barrel, applicable from 5 December 2022; the EU subsequently lowered its cap to a dynamic level — US$47.6 per barrel under the 18th package, then US$44.10 per barrel from 1 February 2026 — while the United States continued to apply the original US$60 level.", "value": "US$60/bbl (2022) → US$44.10/bbl (EU, from Feb 2026)", "asOf": "2026-02-01", "sourceId": "ec-crude-cap-2026", "confidence": "high", "dataMode": "sample", "tags": [ "sanctions", "energy", "price cap" ] }, { "id": "fact-sanctions-us-cap", "subjectType": "sanctions", "subjectId": "russia-energy-trade", "statement": "The U.S. Treasury reports that the G7-led Price Cap Coalition set the price cap on seaborne Russian-origin crude oil at US$60 per barrel, effective 5 December 2022, via an OFAC determination under Executive Order 14071; the United States continued to apply the US$60 level after the EU adopted a lower dynamic cap. It is a policy threshold for covered services, not a market price, and not legal or compliance advice.", "value": "US$60/bbl (U.S./G7, since 5 Dec 2022)", "asOf": "2022-12-05", "sourceId": "us-treasury-russia-price-cap", "confidence": "high", "dataMode": "sample", "tags": [ "sanctions", "energy", "price cap" ] }, { "id": "fact-sanctions-products-cap", "subjectType": "sanctions", "subjectId": "russia-energy-trade", "statement": "EU price caps on seaborne Russian refined products have applied since 5 February 2023, at US$100 per barrel for premium-to-crude products (e.g. diesel, kerosene, gasoline) and US$45 per barrel for discount-to-crude products (e.g. fuel oil, naphtha).", "value": "US$100/bbl premium; US$45/bbl discount", "asOf": "2023-02-05", "sourceId": "ec-sanctions-energy", "confidence": "high", "dataMode": "sample", "tags": [ "sanctions", "energy", "price cap" ] }, { "id": "fact-sanctions-gas-diversification", "subjectType": "sanctions", "subjectId": "russia-energy-trade", "statement": "Under REPowerEU, the European Commission reported that the EU dropped its share of Russian gas imports from 45% to 19%, with a partial rebound in 2024, and set out a roadmap to fully end EU dependency on Russian energy.", "value": "Russian gas share of EU imports: 45% → 19%", "asOf": "2024-12-31", "sourceId": "ec-repowereu", "confidence": "high", "dataMode": "sample", "tags": [ "sanctions", "energy", "trade" ] }, { "id": "fact-sanctions-revenue", "subjectType": "sanctions", "subjectId": "russia-energy-trade", "statement": "The IEA tracks Russia's oil export revenues, which it has reported declining over 2025 as discounted Urals prices and tighter sanctions weighed on receipts; revenue and rerouting estimates are associative and not a causal attribution to any single measure.", "sourceId": "iea", "confidence": "medium", "dataMode": "sample", "tags": [ "sanctions", "energy", "macro" ] }, { "id": "fact-shadow-eu-listings", "subjectType": "sanctions", "subjectId": "shadow-fleet-shipping-insurance", "statement": "The EU lists shadow-fleet vessels in successive sanctions packages; with the 20th package (23 April 2026) the cumulative list reached 632 vessels in Russia's shadow fleet (up from 557 after the 19th package), subject to port-access and maritime-service bans, with vessels both added and occasionally delisted.", "value": "632 vessels listed (EU, 20th package)", "asOf": "2026-04-23", "sourceId": "eu-council-shadow-fleet", "confidence": "high", "dataMode": "sample", "tags": [ "sanctions", "shadow fleet", "shipping", "enforcement" ] }, { "id": "fact-shadow-crea-opacity", "subjectType": "sanctions", "subjectId": "shadow-fleet-shipping-insurance", "statement": "CREA has identified a 'shadow'/'dark' tanker fleet that obscures Russian oil trade through practices such as ship-to-ship transfers and gaps in vessel-tracking signals; such estimates vary by methodology and are not directly comparable across sources.", "sourceId": "crea-shadow-tankers", "confidence": "medium", "dataMode": "sample", "tags": [ "sanctions", "shadow fleet", "shipping", "trade rerouting" ] }, { "id": "fact-frozen-immobilized", "subjectType": "sanctions", "subjectId": "frozen-russian-assets-ukraine-financing", "statement": "The EU reports that around €260 billion of Central Bank of Russia assets are immobilized worldwide, with more than two-thirds (about €210 billion) in the EU; in December 2025 the EU decided to keep them immobilized indefinitely. The assets are immobilized, not confiscated.", "value": "≈€210 billion (EU) of ≈€260 billion (worldwide)", "asOf": "2025-12-12", "sourceId": "consilium-russia-sanctions", "confidence": "high", "dataMode": "sample", "tags": [ "sanctions", "frozen assets", "immobilized assets", "sovereign assets" ] }, { "id": "fact-frozen-proceeds", "subjectType": "sanctions", "subjectId": "frozen-russian-assets-ukraine-financing", "statement": "G7 ERA loans for Ukraine are repaid from the extraordinary revenues/windfall proceeds generated by immobilized Russian assets — not the principal assets themselves; the European Commission estimates these revenues at up to €2.5–3 billion a year.", "value": "≈€2.5–3 billion/year extraordinary revenues", "asOf": "2025-01-10", "sourceId": "ec-era-loan", "confidence": "high", "dataMode": "sample", "tags": [ "sanctions", "windfall proceeds", "Ukraine financing" ] }, { "id": "fact-frozen-us-disbursement", "subjectType": "sanctions", "subjectId": "frozen-russian-assets-ukraine-financing", "statement": "The U.S. Treasury disbursed a US$20 billion loan to benefit Ukraine as part of the US$50 billion G7 Extraordinary Revenue Acceleration (ERA) loan initiative, to be repaid with proceeds from immobilized Russian sovereign assets.", "value": "US$20 billion disbursed of US$50 billion (G7 ERA)", "asOf": "2024-12-10", "sourceId": "us-treasury-era", "confidence": "high", "dataMode": "sample", "tags": [ "sanctions", "Ukraine financing", "G7", "windfall proceeds" ] }, { "id": "fact-circumvention-kyrgyzstan", "subjectType": "sanctions", "subjectId": "secondary-sanctions-circumvention", "statement": "With its 20th sanctions package (23 April 2026) the EU activated its anti-circumvention tool against a third country for the first time, restricting exports of certain machine tools and telecommunications equipment to the Kyrgyz Republic over re-export risk to Russia.", "value": "Anti-circumvention tool first activated (Kyrgyz Republic)", "asOf": "2026-04-23", "sourceId": "ec-circumvention-20th", "confidence": "high", "dataMode": "sample", "tags": [ "sanctions", "circumvention", "third-country trade", "enforcement" ] }, { "id": "fact-circumvention-thirdcountry", "subjectType": "sanctions", "subjectId": "secondary-sanctions-circumvention", "statement": "Of the 60 entities the EU listed in its 20th package for supporting Russia's military-industrial complex or circumvention, 28 are established in third countries (including China, the UAE and Türkiye) — illustrating the third-country routing channel.", "value": "28 of 60 listed entities in third countries", "asOf": "2026-04-23", "sourceId": "ec-circumvention-20th", "confidence": "high", "dataMode": "sample", "tags": [ "sanctions", "circumvention", "third-country trade" ] }, { "id": "fact-circumvention-chpl", "subjectType": "sanctions", "subjectId": "secondary-sanctions-circumvention", "statement": "The EU, US, UK, and Japan jointly maintain a Common High Priority Items list of battlefield/dual-use goods (50 HS codes as of February 2024) that Russia seeks to procure, used to focus export-control and circumvention-enforcement efforts.", "value": "50 Common High Priority Items (HS codes)", "asOf": "2024-02-23", "sourceId": "ec-chpl", "confidence": "high", "dataMode": "sample", "tags": [ "sanctions", "export controls", "dual-use" ] }, { "id": "fact-shipping-imf", "subjectType": "dashboard", "subjectId": "global-shipping-risk", "statement": "IMF PortWatch reported that the volume of trade transiting the Suez Canal fell by about 50% year over year in the first two months of 2024, while trade rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope rose by an estimated 74% — a reminder that chokepoint disruptions can reroute traffic rather than simply reduce global trade.", "value": "Suez −50% YoY; Cape of Good Hope +74% (early 2024)", "asOf": "2024-03-07", "sourceId": "imf-portwatch-red-sea", "confidence": "high", "dataMode": "sample", "tags": [ "shipping", "trade" ] } ], "events": [ { "id": "evt-ukr-start", "date": "2022-02-24", "subjectType": "conflict", "subjectId": "russia-ukraine", "title": "Full-scale invasion begins", "description": "The onset of the full-scale war, the reference start date for economic-impact tracking.", "economicRelevance": "Marks the baseline for energy, food, and trade disruption series." }, { "id": "evt-redsea-diversions", "date": "2023-12-01", "subjectType": "chokepoint", "subjectId": "red-sea-shipping", "title": "Onset of sustained Red Sea diversions", "description": "Carriers began rerouting away from the Red Sea corridor around southern Africa.", "economicRelevance": "Associated with higher freight rates and longer Europe–Asia transit times.", "sourceId": "unctad" } ], "sources": [ { "id": "eia", "title": "U.S. Energy Information Administration", "publisher": "U.S. Energy Information Administration", "url": "https://www.eia.gov", "type": "official" }, { "id": "eia-brent", "title": "EIA — Europe Brent Spot Price FOB (monthly)", "publisher": "U.S. Energy Information Administration", "url": "https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/RBRTEm.htm", "type": "official", "accessedDate": "2026-06-04", "cadence": "monthly", "tags": [ "energy", "crude oil", "commodity benchmark", "monthly" ], "note": "Europe Brent Spot Price FOB monthly series. Values are manually transcribed into this repo as static fixtures; not fetched at runtime and not real-time." }, { "id": "eia-spot-prices", "title": "EIA — Spot Prices for Crude Oil (Brent & WTI)", "publisher": "U.S. Energy Information Administration", "url": "https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_spt_s1_d.htm", "type": "official", "accessedDate": "2026-06-05", "cadence": "monthly", "tags": [ "energy", "crude oil", "commodity benchmark" ], "note": "EIA spot-price series for Europe Brent and Cushing WTI crude. Daily spot values are manually transcribed here as dated static fixtures; not fetched at runtime and not real-time. Daily spot differs from a monthly average." }, { "id": "eia-henry-hub", "title": "EIA — Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Price (monthly)", "publisher": "U.S. Energy Information Administration", "url": "https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/rngwhhdm.htm", "type": "official", "accessedDate": "2026-06-05", "cadence": "monthly", "tags": [ "energy", "natural gas", "commodity benchmark", "monthly" ], "note": "Henry Hub natural gas spot price, monthly series. Values are manually transcribed here as static fixtures; not fetched at runtime and not real-time." }, { "id": "sipri-milex-2025", "title": "SIPRI — Trends in World Military Expenditure, 2025", "publisher": "Stockholm International Peace Research Institute", "url": "https://www.sipri.org/publications/2026/sipri-fact-sheets/trends-world-military-expenditure-2025", "type": "academic", "accessedDate": "2026-06-05", "cadence": "annual", "tags": [ "defense spending", "military expenditure", "global", "annual" ], "note": "Annual fact sheet (published April 2026). Manually maintained static fixture in this repo; an annual estimate, not real-time. Figures may be revised in future SIPRI releases." }, { "id": "sipri-milex-2024", "title": "SIPRI — Trends in World Military Expenditure, 2024", "publisher": "Stockholm International Peace Research Institute", "url": "https://www.sipri.org/publications/2025/sipri-fact-sheets/trends-world-military-expenditure-2024", "type": "academic", "accessedDate": "2026-06-06", "cadence": "annual", "tags": [ "defense spending", "military expenditure", "global", "annual" ], "note": "Prior-year fact sheet (published April 2025). Used here for the world-total time-series predecessor point (2024). Manually maintained static fixture; an annual estimate, not real-time. Figures may be revised in future SIPRI releases." }, { "id": "iea", "title": "International Energy Agency", "publisher": "International Energy Agency", "url": "https://www.iea.org", "type": "intergovernmental" }, { "id": "imf", "title": "International Monetary Fund", "publisher": "International Monetary Fund", "url": "https://www.imf.org", "type": "intergovernmental" }, { "id": "worldbank", "title": "World Bank", "publisher": "World Bank Group", "url": "https://www.worldbank.org", "type": "intergovernmental" }, { "id": "wb-rdna4", "title": "Ukraine — Fourth Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment (RDNA4)", "publisher": "Government of Ukraine, World Bank Group, European Commission, and United Nations", "url": "https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2025/02/25/updated-ukraine-recovery-and-reconstruction-needs-assessment-released", "type": "intergovernmental", "publishedDate": "2025-02-25", "accessedDate": "2026-06-05", "cadence": "annual", "tags": [ "reconstruction", "macro", "ukraine", "annual" ], "note": "Joint Government of Ukraine / World Bank / European Commission / UN assessment, released February 2025, covering February 2022 – December 2024. Reconstruction and recovery needs are an estimate over the next decade and may be revised in later assessments. Manually transcribed into this repo as a static fixture; not fetched at runtime and not real-time." }, { "id": "fao-fpi", "title": "FAO — Food Price Index (monthly)", "publisher": "Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations", "url": "https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/", "type": "intergovernmental", "accessedDate": "2026-06-05", "cadence": "monthly", "tags": [ "food", "commodity benchmark", "global", "monthly" ], "note": "Monthly nominal index of international food commodity prices (2014–2016 = 100). A global benchmark tracked alongside food-security and conflict-related supply channels; not a causal attribution. Values are manually transcribed into this repo as static fixtures; not fetched at runtime and not real-time." }, { "id": "unctad", "title": "UN Conference on Trade and Development", "publisher": "UNCTAD", "url": "https://unctad.org", "type": "intergovernmental" }, { "id": "unctad-red-sea", "title": "UNCTAD — Navigating troubled waters (Red Sea / Suez rapid assessment)", "publisher": "UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD)", "url": "https://unctad.org/publication/navigating-troubled-waters-impact-global-trade-disruption-shipping-routes-red-sea-black", "type": "intergovernmental", "publishedDate": "2024-02-22", "accessedDate": "2026-06-05", "cadence": "unknown", "tags": [ "Red Sea", "Suez Canal", "shipping", "trade", "chokepoint" ], "note": "Rapid event assessment (released 22 February 2024) of shipping-route disruption in the Red Sea, Black Sea, and Panama Canal. Captures the acute phase of the disruption; figures are a dated snapshot, manually transcribed as static fixtures, not real-time, and may be superseded by later assessments. An irregular event series — a manual review against fresher sources is recommended over time." }, { "id": "imf-portwatch-red-sea", "title": "IMF PortWatch — Red Sea Attacks Disrupt Global Trade", "publisher": "International Monetary Fund", "url": "https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2024/03/07/red-sea-attacks-disrupt-global-trade", "type": "intergovernmental", "publishedDate": "2024-03-07", "accessedDate": "2026-06-05", "cadence": "unknown", "tags": [ "Red Sea", "Suez Canal", "shipping", "trade" ], "note": "IMF analysis drawing on the IMF/Oxford PortWatch platform (7 March 2024). PortWatch itself updates frequently, but the cited year-over-year figure is a dated point-in-time estimate, manually snapshotted here as a static fixture; not real-time and may be revised. A manual review against fresher PortWatch data is recommended over time." }, { "id": "unctad-rmt-2024", "title": "UNCTAD — Review of Maritime Transport 2024", "publisher": "UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD)", "url": "https://unctad.org/publication/review-maritime-transport-2024", "type": "intergovernmental", "accessedDate": "2026-06-05", "cadence": "annual", "tags": [ "Red Sea", "Suez Canal", "shipping", "trade", "maritime" ], "note": "UNCTAD's annual flagship maritime report (2024 edition). Cited here for its mid-2024 assessment of the Red Sea / Suez disruption — a newer official figure that complements the February 2024 rapid assessment, but still a historical snapshot. Manually transcribed as a static fixture; not real-time and may be revised in later editions." }, { "id": "eia-steo-chokepoints", "title": "EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook — energy security / maritime oil chokepoints", "publisher": "U.S. Energy Information Administration", "url": "https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/energysecurity/article.php", "type": "official", "publishedDate": "2025-08-12", "accessedDate": "2026-06-05", "cadence": "unknown", "tags": [ "chokepoint", "shipping", "oil", "energy", "trade" ], "note": "EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook energy-security supplement. Table 2 reports the volume of crude oil and petroleum liquids transported through world chokepoints and the Cape of Good Hope by quarter (latest published: 1Q2025 and 2Q2025). Quarterly snapshots, manually transcribed as static fixtures; not real-time. An irregular/quarterly series — a manual review against EIA's next update is recommended over time." }, { "id": "panama-canal-authority", "title": "Panama Canal Authority — FY2024 financial and traffic results", "publisher": "Panama Canal Authority (Autoridad del Canal de Panamá)", "url": "https://pancanal.com/en/presents-financial-results-for-fy24-with-a-focus-on-sustainability-and-the-future/", "type": "official", "publishedDate": "2024-10-25", "accessedDate": "2026-06-05", "cadence": "annual", "tags": [ "chokepoint", "shipping", "trade", "panama-canal" ], "note": "Official Panama Canal Authority (ACP) statement of fiscal-year 2024 results (1 October 2023–30 September 2024). Reports deep-draft transits, tonnage, and toll revenue. An annual figure, manually transcribed as a static fixture; not real-time." }, { "id": "fao", "title": "Food and Agriculture Organization", "publisher": "Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations", "url": "https://www.fao.org", "type": "intergovernmental" }, { "id": "nato", "title": "NATO — Defence expenditure of NATO countries", "publisher": "North Atlantic Treaty Organization", "url": "https://www.nato.int/en/what-we-do/introduction-to-nato/defence-expenditures-and-natos-5-commitment", "type": "intergovernmental", "accessedDate": "2026-06-05", "cadence": "annual", "tags": [ "defense spending", "nato", "annual" ], "note": "NATO's published reporting on allied defence expenditure relative to the 2% of GDP guideline. Annual figures are estimates that NATO revises in later releases; the 2% guideline has since been supplemented by a higher longer-term investment commitment. Manually maintained static fixture in this repo; not fetched at runtime and not real-time." }, { "id": "sca", "title": "Suez Canal Authority — Navigation statistics", "publisher": "Suez Canal Authority", "url": "https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx", "type": "official", "accessedDate": "2026-06-05", "cadence": "annual", "tags": [ "Suez Canal", "shipping", "trade", "chokepoint", "annual" ], "note": "Official Suez Canal Authority navigation statistics (annual and monthly vessel transits, tonnage, and revenue). Figures cited from SCA are manually transcribed as static fixtures; not fetched at runtime and not real-time. SCA periodically revises and updates its statistics." }, { "id": "kse", "title": "Kiel Institute for the World Economy", "publisher": "Kiel Institute (Ukraine Support Tracker)", "url": "https://www.ifw-kiel.de", "type": "academic" }, { "id": "ec-sanctions-energy", "title": "European Commission — EU sanctions against Russia: energy (oil price cap)", "publisher": "European Commission", "url": "https://commission.europa.eu/topics/eu-solidarity-ukraine/eu-sanctions-against-russia-following-invasion-ukraine/sanctions-energy_en", "type": "official", "publishedDate": "2026-04-23", "accessedDate": "2026-06-05", "cadence": "unknown", "tags": [ "sanctions", "Russia", "energy", "oil", "price cap", "trade" ], "note": "Official European Commission page on the EU oil price cap. It backs the products caps here: premium-to-crude products at US$100/bbl and discount-to-crude products at US$45/bbl (in effect since 5 February 2023). The seaborne crude cap, originally US$60/bbl (from 5 December 2022) then US$47.6/bbl under the 18th package, was subsequently lowered to US$44.10/bbl from 1 February 2026 under the EU's automatic dynamic mechanism (see source `ec-crude-cap-2026`); the United States continued to apply the US$60 level. Price caps are policy thresholds, not market prices. Manually transcribed into this repo as static fixtures; not fetched at runtime and not real-time. Policy parameters may be revised; this is an economic-impact reference, not legal or compliance advice." }, { "id": "ec-crude-cap-2026", "title": "European Commission — Dynamic mechanism lowers the Russian crude oil price cap to US$44.10/bbl", "publisher": "European Commission", "url": "https://finance.ec.europa.eu/news/new-dynamic-mechanism-lower-price-cap-russian-crude-oil-4410-barrel-2026-01-15_en", "type": "official", "publishedDate": "2026-01-15", "accessedDate": "2026-06-05", "cadence": "unknown", "tags": [ "sanctions", "Russia", "energy", "oil", "price cap", "EU" ], "note": "Official EC announcement (15 January 2026) of the first application of the EU's automatic dynamic price-cap mechanism, lowering the seaborne Russian crude oil cap from US$47.6 to US$44.10 per barrel, effective 1 February 2026 (kept 15% below the six-month average Urals price, reviewed every six months). A policy threshold, not a market price; manually transcribed as a static fixture; not real-time and may be revised at the next review. Not legal or compliance advice." }, { "id": "us-treasury-russia-price-cap", "title": "U.S. Department of the Treasury — Price cap on Russian oil (US$60/bbl crude)", "publisher": "U.S. Department of the Treasury (OFAC)", "url": "https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy1141", "type": "official", "accessedDate": "2026-06-05", "cadence": "unknown", "tags": [ "sanctions", "Russia", "energy", "oil", "price cap", "U.S. Treasury", "OFAC", "G7" ], "note": "Official U.S. Treasury / OFAC source of record for the U.S./G7 (Price Cap Coalition) price cap on seaborne Russian-origin crude oil, set at US$60 per barrel effective 5 December 2022 via an OFAC Determination under Executive Order 14071. The United States continued to apply the US$60 level while the EU adopted a lower dynamic cap (US$47.6/bbl, then US$44.10/bbl from 1 February 2026); re-reviewed 5 June 2026 with no change to the U.S. US$60 level found. A policy threshold for covered services, not a market price. Manually transcribed into this repo as a static fixture; not fetched at runtime and not real-time. Scope and applicability depend on official OFAC guidance and may change; this is an economic-impact reference, not legal or compliance advice." }, { "id": "crea-russia-fossil-tracker", "title": "CREA — Monthly analysis of Russian fossil fuel exports and sanctions", "publisher": "Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA)", "url": "https://energyandcleanair.org/april-2026-monthly-analysis-of-russian-fossil-fuel-exports-and-sanctions/", "type": "academic", "accessedDate": "2026-06-05", "cadence": "monthly", "tags": [ "sanctions", "Russia", "energy", "oil", "gas", "export revenue", "fiscal" ], "note": "CREA's monthly 'Financing Putin's war' analysis of Russian fossil fuel export revenues. CREA is an independent research organisation; its figures are estimates (authoritative research, not official government data) and may be revised. The cited value is a daily-average export-revenue estimate for the stated month, deep-linked to that month's report. Manually transcribed into this repo as a static fixture; not fetched at runtime and not real-time. Tracked alongside the sanctions/price-cap channel and many other factors, not a causal attribution. Not legal or compliance advice." }, { "id": "eu-council-shadow-fleet", "title": "European Commission / Council of the EU — 20th sanctions package (shadow-fleet vessel listings)", "publisher": "European Commission", "url": "https://finance.ec.europa.eu/news/eu-adopts-20th-package-sanctions-against-russia-2026-04-23_en", "type": "official", "publishedDate": "2026-04-23", "accessedDate": "2026-06-05", "cadence": "unknown", "tags": [ "sanctions", "Russia", "oil", "shadow fleet", "shipping", "enforcement" ], "note": "Official EU reporting on shadow-fleet vessel listings under successive Russia sanctions packages. As stated for the 20th package (adopted 23 April 2026), a total of 557 + net additions brings the cumulative list to 632 vessels in Russia's shadow fleet listed by the EU (subject to port-access and maritime-service bans; the 20th package added 46 and delisted 11). A cumulative count as of a stated package, manually transcribed as a static fixture; not real-time and may rise with new packages. Re-reviewed 5 June 2026 against the 20th package. Not legal or compliance advice." }, { "id": "us-treasury-jan2025-vessels", "title": "U.S. Department of the Treasury — January 2025 action on Russian oil shipping (shadow-fleet vessels)", "publisher": "U.S. Department of the Treasury (OFAC)", "url": "https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy2777", "type": "official", "publishedDate": "2025-01-10", "accessedDate": "2026-06-05", "cadence": "unknown", "tags": [ "sanctions", "Russia", "oil", "shadow fleet", "shipping", "OFAC", "enforcement" ], "note": "Official U.S. Treasury / OFAC press release on the 10 January 2025 action intensifying sanctions on Russia's oil production and exports, which sanctioned 183 vessels (largely oil tankers tied to the shadow fleet, including 143 tankers). A source-reported count for a single dated action, manually transcribed as a static fixture; not real-time and not a cumulative total. Scope and applicability depend on official OFAC guidance. Not legal or compliance advice." }, { "id": "crea-shadow-tankers", "title": "CREA — Shedding light on shadow tankers", "publisher": "Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA)", "url": "https://energyandcleanair.org/publication/shedding-light-on-shadow-tankers/", "type": "academic", "publishedDate": "2023-09-25", "accessedDate": "2026-06-05", "cadence": "unknown", "tags": [ "sanctions", "Russia", "oil", "shadow fleet", "shipping", "trade rerouting" ], "note": "CREA analysis identifying the 'shadow'/'dark' tanker fleet carrying Russian oil. CREA is an independent research organisation; figures are estimates (authoritative research, not official government data) and vary by methodology and period. The cited cumulative share covers the period since the 5 December 2022 EU embargo/price cap as reported in the September 2023 publication — a dated snapshot, manually transcribed as a static fixture, not real-time, and recommended for refresh. Not legal or compliance advice." }, { "id": "consilium-russia-sanctions", "title": "Council of the EU — Russia's war against Ukraine: EU sanctions (immobilised assets)", "publisher": "Council of the European Union", "url": "https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/sanctions-against-russia/", "type": "official", "accessedDate": "2026-06-05", "cadence": "unknown", "tags": [ "sanctions", "Russia", "Ukraine", "frozen assets", "immobilized assets", "sovereign assets", "EU" ], "note": "Official Council of the EU overview of Russia sanctions, including the immobilisation of Central Bank of Russia assets. As reported by the EU, around €260 billion of Central Bank of Russia assets are immobilized worldwide, with more than two-thirds (about €210 billion) in the EU; in December 2025 the EU decided to keep them immobilized indefinitely. The assets are immobilized, not confiscated; principal differs from the proceeds they generate. Manually transcribed as a static fixture; not real-time and may be revised. Not legal or compliance advice." }, { "id": "us-treasury-era", "title": "U.S. Department of the Treasury — Disbursement of $20 billion ERA loan to benefit Ukraine", "publisher": "U.S. Department of the Treasury", "url": "https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy2744", "type": "official", "publishedDate": "2024-12-10", "accessedDate": "2026-06-05", "cadence": "unknown", "tags": [ "sanctions", "Russia", "Ukraine", "frozen assets", "windfall proceeds", "Ukraine financing", "G7" ], "note": "Official U.S. Treasury press release on the disbursement of a US$20 billion loan to benefit Ukraine as part of the US$50 billion G7 Extraordinary Revenue Acceleration (ERA) loan initiative, to be repaid with proceeds earned from immobilized Russian sovereign assets. A loan financed by proceeds, not the principal assets. Manually transcribed as a static fixture; not real-time. Not legal or compliance advice." }, { "id": "ec-era-loan", "title": "European Commission — EU's €18.1 billion contribution to the G7 ERA loans (first €3 billion tranche)", "publisher": "European Commission", "url": "https://enlargement.ec.europa.eu/news/commission-disburses-first-eu3-billion-ukraine-its-part-g7-loan-be-repaid-proceeds-immobilised-2025-01-10_en", "type": "official", "publishedDate": "2025-01-10", "accessedDate": "2026-06-05", "cadence": "unknown", "tags": [ "sanctions", "Russia", "Ukraine", "windfall proceeds", "Ukraine financing", "EU", "G7" ], "note": "Official European Commission announcement of the EU's €18.1 billion contribution to the G7 ERA loan initiative, with the first €3 billion tranche disbursed in January 2025. The loan is repaid from the extraordinary revenues/proceeds generated by immobilized Russian assets (estimated by the EC at up to €2.5–3 billion a year), not the principal assets. Commitments differ from disbursements. Manually transcribed as a static fixture; not real-time and may be revised. Not legal or compliance advice." }, { "id": "ec-circumvention-20th", "title": "European Commission — 20th sanctions package (military-industrial & circumvention listings)", "publisher": "European Commission", "url": "https://finance.ec.europa.eu/news/eu-adopts-20th-package-sanctions-against-russia-2026-04-23_en", "type": "official", "publishedDate": "2026-04-23", "accessedDate": "2026-06-05", "cadence": "unknown", "tags": [ "sanctions", "Russia", "secondary sanctions", "circumvention", "third-country trade", "export controls", "dual-use", "enforcement", "EU" ], "note": "Official European Commission reporting on the 20th sanctions package (adopted 23 April 2026). As stated on the page, the package adds 60 entities providing direct or indirect support to Russia's military-industrial complex or engaged in sanctions circumvention (32 in Russia, 28 in third countries), and the EU activated its anti-circumvention tool against the Kyrgyz Republic for the first time. A source-reported count as of a stated package, manually transcribed as a static fixture; not real-time and not a cumulative total. An economic-impact / enforcement indicator, not legal or compliance advice." }, { "id": "ec-chpl", "title": "European Commission — Common High Priority Items list (with the US, UK and Japan)", "publisher": "European Commission", "url": "https://policy.trade.ec.europa.eu/news/eu-and-partners-expand-list-common-high-priority-items-further-weaken-russias-war-effort-2024-02-23_en", "type": "official", "publishedDate": "2024-02-23", "accessedDate": "2026-06-05", "cadence": "unknown", "tags": [ "sanctions", "Russia", "export controls", "dual-use", "circumvention", "EU", "enforcement" ], "note": "Official European Commission page on the Common High Priority Items list, jointly maintained by the EU, US, UK, and Japan. As stated, the list covers 50 customs (HS) codes as of the February 2024 update — battlefield/dual-use items at high risk of diversion to Russia. A policy/export-control parameter, manually transcribed as a static fixture; not real-time and may be expanded in later updates. Not legal or compliance advice." }, { "id": "ec-repowereu", "title": "European Commission — Roadmap to fully end EU dependency on Russian energy (REPowerEU)", "publisher": "European Commission", "url": "https://commission.europa.eu/news-and-media/news/roadmap-fully-end-eu-dependency-russian-energy-2025-05-06_en", "type": "official", "publishedDate": "2025-05-06", "accessedDate": "2026-06-05", "cadence": "annual", "tags": [ "sanctions", "Russia", "energy", "gas", "trade" ], "note": "Official European Commission communication on REPowerEU and ending EU dependency on Russian energy (published May 2025). States that the EU dropped its share of Russian gas imports from 45% to 19%, with a partial rebound in 2024. A periodic stocktake; figures are estimates that may be revised. Manually transcribed into this repo as a static fixture; not fetched at runtime and not real-time. Tracked alongside the EU diversification channel, not a causal attribution." } ], "policyThresholds": [ { "id": "pt-us-g7-crude", "label": "Seaborne Russian crude oil price cap", "value": "60", "unit": "USD/bbl", "jurisdiction": "U.S. / G7 (Price Cap Coalition)", "sourceId": "us-treasury-russia-price-cap", "sourceName": "U.S. Department of the Treasury — Price cap on Russian oil (US$60/bbl crude)", "effectiveDate": "5 Dec 2022", "lastReviewed": "2026-06-05", "confidence": "high", "caveat": "Coalition level; the U.S. continued to apply US$60 after the EU lowered its cap.", "observationId": "obs-sanctions-us-crude-cap", "relatedPath": "/sanctions/russia-energy-trade/economic-impact", "relatedTopicId": "russia-energy-trade", "type": "policy-threshold", "isMarketPrice": false, "disclaimer": "Policy threshold, not a market price; not legal or compliance advice." }, { "id": "pt-eu-crude", "label": "Seaborne Russian crude oil price cap", "value": "44.1", "unit": "USD/bbl", "jurisdiction": "European Union", "sourceId": "ec-crude-cap-2026", "sourceName": "European Commission — Dynamic mechanism lowers the Russian crude oil price cap to US$44.10/bbl", "effectiveDate": "1 Feb 2026", "lastReviewed": "2026-06-05", "confidence": "high", "caveat": "Dynamic cap kept 15% below the six-month average Urals price; reviewed every six months.", "observationId": "obs-sanctions-crude-cap", "relatedPath": "/sanctions/russia-energy-trade/economic-impact", "relatedTopicId": "russia-energy-trade", "type": "policy-threshold", "isMarketPrice": false, "disclaimer": "Policy threshold, not a market price; not legal or compliance advice." }, { "id": "pt-eu-products-premium", "label": "Premium-to-crude products price cap", "value": "100", "unit": "USD/bbl", "jurisdiction": "EU / G7", "sourceId": "ec-sanctions-energy", "sourceName": "European Commission — EU sanctions against Russia: energy (oil price cap)", "effectiveDate": "5 Feb 2023", "lastReviewed": "2026-06-05", "confidence": "high", "caveat": "Premium-to-crude products, e.g. diesel, kerosene, gasoline.", "observationId": "obs-sanctions-products-cap", "relatedPath": "/sanctions/russia-energy-trade/economic-impact", "relatedTopicId": "russia-energy-trade", "type": "policy-threshold", "isMarketPrice": false, "disclaimer": "Policy threshold, not a market price; not legal or compliance advice." }, { "id": "pt-eu-products-discount", "label": "Discount-to-crude products price cap", "value": "45", "unit": "USD/bbl", "jurisdiction": "EU / G7", "sourceId": "ec-sanctions-energy", "sourceName": "European Commission — EU sanctions against Russia: energy (oil price cap)", "effectiveDate": "5 Feb 2023", "lastReviewed": "2026-06-05", "confidence": "high", "caveat": "Discount-to-crude products, e.g. fuel oil, naphtha.", "observationId": null, "relatedPath": "/sanctions/russia-energy-trade/economic-impact", "relatedTopicId": "russia-energy-trade", "type": "policy-threshold", "isMarketPrice": false, "disclaimer": "Policy threshold, not a market price; not legal or compliance advice." } ], "dashboardHub": { "path": "/dashboards", "datasetPath": "/datasets/conflict-economic-impact", "dataJsonPath": "/datasets/conflict-economic-impact/data.json", "counts": { "total": 11, "categoryDashboards": 4, "dataDashboards": 2, "trustSurfaces": 3, "sourceRegistries": 1, "datasets": 1 }, "surfaces": [ { "id": "sanctions-dashboard", "title": "Sanctions dashboard", "path": "/sanctions/dashboard", "type": "category-dashboard", "category": "sanctions", "live": 13, "sample": 0, "sourceCount": 14, "highPriority": 7 }, { "id": "chokepoints-dashboard", "title": "Chokepoints dashboard", "path": "/chokepoints/dashboard", "type": "category-dashboard", "category": "chokepoints", "live": 15, "sample": 2, "sourceCount": 8, "highPriority": 12 }, { "id": "conflicts-dashboard", "title": "Conflicts dashboard", "path": "/conflicts/dashboard", "type": "category-dashboard", "category": "conflicts", "live": 2, "sample": 2, "sourceCount": 6, "highPriority": 0 }, { "id": "commodities-dashboard", "title": "Commodities dashboard", "path": "/commodities/dashboard", "type": "category-dashboard", "category": "commodities", "live": 10, "sample": 0, "sourceCount": 3, "highPriority": 0 }, { "id": "defense-spending", "title": "Global defense spending", "path": "/dashboards/defense-spending", "type": "data-dashboard", "category": null, "live": 6, "sample": 0, "sourceCount": 3, "highPriority": 0 }, { "id": "global-shipping-risk", "title": "Global shipping risk", "path": "/dashboards/global-shipping-risk", "type": "data-dashboard", "category": null, "live": 1, "sample": 1, "sourceCount": 2, "highPriority": 1 }, { "id": "data-coverage", "title": "Data coverage", "path": "/data-coverage", "type": "trust-surface", "category": null, "live": 47, "sample": 5, "sourceCount": 27, "highPriority": null }, { "id": "data-review", "title": "Data review queue", "path": "/data-review", "type": "trust-surface", "category": null, "live": 47, "sample": null, "sourceCount": null, "highPriority": 20 }, { "id": "source-quality", "title": "Source quality", "path": "/source-quality", "type": "trust-surface", "category": null, "live": null, "sample": null, "sourceCount": 34, "highPriority": null }, { "id": "sources", "title": "Source registry", "path": "/sources", "type": "source-registry", "category": null, "live": null, "sample": null, "sourceCount": 34, "highPriority": null }, { "id": "dataset", "title": "Conflict economic-impact dataset", "path": "/datasets/conflict-economic-impact", "type": "dataset", "category": null, "live": 47, "sample": 5, "sourceCount": 27, "highPriority": null } ] }, "topicIndex": { "path": "/topics", "datasetPath": "/datasets/conflict-economic-impact", "dataJsonPath": "/datasets/conflict-economic-impact/data.json", "categories": [ { "id": "sanctions", "path": "/sanctions", "dashboardPath": "/sanctions/dashboard", "count": 4, "topicPaths": [ "/sanctions/russia-energy-trade/economic-impact", "/sanctions/shadow-fleet-shipping-insurance/economic-impact", "/sanctions/frozen-russian-assets-ukraine-financing/economic-impact", "/sanctions/secondary-sanctions-circumvention/economic-impact" ] }, { "id": "conflicts", "path": "/conflicts", "dashboardPath": "/conflicts/dashboard", "count": 1, "topicPaths": [ "/conflicts/russia-ukraine/economic-impact" ] }, { "id": "chokepoints", "path": "/chokepoints", "dashboardPath": "/chokepoints/dashboard", "count": 7, "topicPaths": [ "/chokepoints/strait-of-hormuz/economic-impact", "/chokepoints/red-sea-shipping/economic-impact", "/chokepoints/panama-canal/economic-impact", "/chokepoints/strait-of-malacca/economic-impact", "/chokepoints/bab-el-mandeb/economic-impact", "/chokepoints/turkish-straits/economic-impact", "/chokepoints/danish-straits/economic-impact" ] }, { "id": "commodities", "path": "/commodities", "dashboardPath": "/commodities/dashboard", "count": 3, "topicPaths": [ "/commodities/oil-benchmarks/economic-impact", "/commodities/natural-gas/economic-impact", "/commodities/food-prices/economic-impact" ] }, { "id": "dashboards", "path": "/dashboards", "dashboardPath": null, "count": 2, "topicPaths": [ "/dashboards/defense-spending", "/dashboards/global-shipping-risk" ] } ], "trustSurfacePaths": [ "/data-coverage", "/data-review", "/sources", "/datasets/conflict-economic-impact" ], "queryHubPath": "/economic-impact" }, "queryHub": { "path": "/economic-impact", "title": "Economic impact — question hub", "description": "A question→answer hub routing common economic-impact questions about wars, sanctions, chokepoints, defense spending, frozen assets, and shipping to Warconomy's best source-linked citation surface. Partial coverage, manually maintained, not real-time.", "queryIds": [ "sanctions-russia", "russia-ukraine-war", "chokepoints-oil-trade", "panama-canal", "malacca-oil", "bab-el-mandeb", "turkish-straits", "danish-straits", "shadow-fleet", "frozen-assets", "secondary-sanctions", "military-spending", "defense-comparison", "conflicts-overview", "oil-prices", "natural-gas-prices", "food-prices", "commodity-shocks", "live-vs-sample", "needs-review", "source-quality", "transmission", "sources", "machine-readable", "all-topics" ], "recommendedPaths": [ "/sanctions/dashboard", "/conflicts/russia-ukraine/economic-impact", "/chokepoints/dashboard", "/chokepoints/panama-canal/economic-impact", "/chokepoints/strait-of-malacca/economic-impact", "/chokepoints/bab-el-mandeb/economic-impact", "/chokepoints/turkish-straits/economic-impact", "/chokepoints/danish-straits/economic-impact", "/sanctions/shadow-fleet-shipping-insurance/economic-impact", "/sanctions/frozen-russian-assets-ukraine-financing/economic-impact", "/sanctions/secondary-sanctions-circumvention/economic-impact", "/dashboards/defense-spending", "/defense/comparison", "/conflicts/dashboard", "/commodities/oil-benchmarks/economic-impact", "/commodities/natural-gas/economic-impact", "/commodities/food-prices/economic-impact", "/commodities/dashboard", "/data-coverage", "/data-review", "/source-quality", "/transmission-map", "/sources", "/datasets/conflict-economic-impact", "/topics" ], "relatedSurfacePaths": [ "/topics", "/dashboards", "/sanctions/dashboard", "/chokepoints/dashboard", "/conflicts/dashboard", "/data-coverage", "/data-review", "/sources", "/source-quality", "/transmission-map", "/datasets/conflict-economic-impact", "/datasets/conflict-economic-impact/data.json", "/datasets/conflict-economic-impact/graph.json" ], "intents": [ { "id": "sanctions-russia", "question": "What is the economic impact of sanctions on Russia?", "recommendedPath": "/sanctions/dashboard", "recommendedTitle": "Sanctions dashboard", "surfaceType": "category-dashboard", "categoryId": "sanctions", "relatedPaths": [ "/sanctions", "/topics" ], "observationIds": [], "sourceIds": [], "caveats": { "partialCoverage": true, "notRealTime": true, "notLegalAdvice": true, "notCausalAttribution": true }, "faqId": "best-sanctions-page" }, { "id": "russia-ukraine-war", "question": "What is the economic impact of the Russia–Ukraine war?", "recommendedPath": "/conflicts/russia-ukraine/economic-impact", "recommendedTitle": "Russia–Ukraine economic impact", "surfaceType": "topic", "categoryId": "conflicts", "relatedPaths": [ "/conflicts/dashboard" ], "observationIds": [ "obs-ukr-reconstruction", "obs-ukr-food-price-index" ], "sourceIds": [ "fao", "wb-rdna4", "eia", "fao-fpi", "iea", "kse" ], "caveats": { "partialCoverage": true, "notRealTime": true, "notLegalAdvice": false, "notCausalAttribution": true }, "faqId": null }, { "id": "chokepoints-oil-trade", "question": "How do shipping chokepoints affect oil prices and global trade?", "recommendedPath": "/chokepoints/dashboard", "recommendedTitle": "Chokepoints dashboard", "surfaceType": "category-dashboard", "categoryId": "chokepoints", "relatedPaths": [ "/chokepoints", "/topics" ], "observationIds": [], "sourceIds": [], "caveats": { "partialCoverage": true, "notRealTime": true, "notLegalAdvice": false, "notCausalAttribution": true }, "faqId": null }, { "id": "panama-canal", "question": "What is the economic impact of the Panama Canal?", "recommendedPath": "/chokepoints/panama-canal/economic-impact", "recommendedTitle": "Panama Canal", "surfaceType": "topic", "categoryId": "chokepoints", "relatedPaths": [ "/chokepoints/dashboard", "/chokepoints" ], "observationIds": [ "obs-panama-transits", "obs-panama-revenue", "obs-panama-oil-2q25", "obs-panama-oil-1q25" ], "sourceIds": [ "panama-canal-authority", "eia-steo-chokepoints" ], "caveats": { "partialCoverage": true, "notRealTime": true, "notLegalAdvice": false, "notCausalAttribution": true }, "faqId": null }, { "id": "malacca-oil", "question": "How does the Strait of Malacca affect oil trade?", "recommendedPath": "/chokepoints/strait-of-malacca/economic-impact", "recommendedTitle": "Strait of Malacca", "surfaceType": "topic", "categoryId": "chokepoints", "relatedPaths": [ "/chokepoints/dashboard", "/chokepoints" ], "observationIds": [ "obs-malacca-oil-2q25", "obs-malacca-oil-1q25" ], "sourceIds": [ "eia-steo-chokepoints" ], "caveats": { "partialCoverage": true, "notRealTime": true, "notLegalAdvice": false, "notCausalAttribution": true }, "faqId": null }, { "id": "bab-el-mandeb", "question": "Why is Bab el-Mandeb important for shipping?", "recommendedPath": "/chokepoints/bab-el-mandeb/economic-impact", "recommendedTitle": "Bab el-Mandeb Strait", "surfaceType": "topic", "categoryId": "chokepoints", "relatedPaths": [ "/chokepoints/dashboard", "/chokepoints/red-sea-shipping/economic-impact" ], "observationIds": [ "obs-babelmandeb-oil-2q25", "obs-babelmandeb-oil-1q25" ], "sourceIds": [ "eia-steo-chokepoints" ], "caveats": { "partialCoverage": true, "notRealTime": true, "notLegalAdvice": false, "notCausalAttribution": true }, "faqId": null }, { "id": "turkish-straits", "question": "How do the Turkish Straits affect energy trade?", "recommendedPath": "/chokepoints/turkish-straits/economic-impact", "recommendedTitle": "Turkish Straits", "surfaceType": "topic", "categoryId": "chokepoints", "relatedPaths": [ "/chokepoints/dashboard", "/sanctions/dashboard" ], "observationIds": [ "obs-turkish-oil-2q25", "obs-turkish-oil-1q25" ], "sourceIds": [ "eia-steo-chokepoints" ], "caveats": { "partialCoverage": true, "notRealTime": true, "notLegalAdvice": false, "notCausalAttribution": true }, "faqId": null }, { "id": "danish-straits", "question": "Why do the Danish Straits matter for Russian oil?", "recommendedPath": "/chokepoints/danish-straits/economic-impact", "recommendedTitle": "Danish Straits", "surfaceType": "topic", "categoryId": "chokepoints", "relatedPaths": [ "/chokepoints/dashboard", "/sanctions/dashboard" ], "observationIds": [ "obs-danish-oil-2q25", "obs-danish-oil-1q25" ], "sourceIds": [ "eia-steo-chokepoints" ], "caveats": { "partialCoverage": true, "notRealTime": true, "notLegalAdvice": true, "notCausalAttribution": true }, "faqId": null }, { "id": "shadow-fleet", "question": "What is the shadow fleet?", "recommendedPath": "/sanctions/shadow-fleet-shipping-insurance/economic-impact", "recommendedTitle": "Shadow fleet & shipping sanctions", "surfaceType": "topic", "categoryId": "sanctions", "relatedPaths": [ "/sanctions/dashboard" ], "observationIds": [ "obs-shadow-eu-vessels", "obs-shadow-ofac-vessels", "obs-shadow-export-share" ], "sourceIds": [ "eu-council-shadow-fleet", "us-treasury-jan2025-vessels", "crea-shadow-tankers" ], "caveats": { "partialCoverage": true, "notRealTime": true, "notLegalAdvice": true, "notCausalAttribution": true }, "faqId": null }, { "id": 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