{
  "id": "henry-hub-gas-monthly",
  "title": "Henry Hub natural gas monthly spot price",
  "unit": "USD/MMBtu (nominal)",
  "domain": "energy",
  "metricId": "henry-hub-gas-monthly",
  "metricName": "Henry Hub natural gas monthly spot price",
  "subjectType": "commodity",
  "subjectId": "natural-gas",
  "summaryFinding": "U.S. Henry Hub gas spiked to multi-year highs in 2022 (annual average around $6.4/MMBtu, briefly near $9 in late summer), then collapsed to roughly $2.5 in 2023 and $2.2 in 2024 as domestic supply stayed ample, before firming toward $2.8-2.9 by spring 2026. A cold-winter / rising-LNG-demand scenario brackets the upside.",
  "geographicCoverage": "United States (Henry Hub)",
  "coveredThrough": "2026-05-31",
  "lastReviewed": "2026-07-22",
  "page": "https://warconomy.com/data-series/henry-hub-gas-monthly",
  "points": [
    {
      "period": "2022 (avg)",
      "date": "2022-12-31",
      "epistemicClass": "observed",
      "evidenceStatus": "reported",
      "value": 6.4,
      "interval": null,
      "sourceIds": [
        "eia-henry-hub"
      ],
      "recordRef": null,
      "note": "Annual average; briefly near $9 in late summer 2022."
    },
    {
      "period": "2023 (avg)",
      "date": "2023-12-31",
      "epistemicClass": "observed",
      "evidenceStatus": "reported",
      "value": 2.5,
      "interval": null,
      "sourceIds": [
        "eia-henry-hub"
      ],
      "recordRef": null,
      "note": "Annual average."
    },
    {
      "period": "2024 (avg)",
      "date": "2024-12-31",
      "epistemicClass": "observed",
      "evidenceStatus": "reported",
      "value": 2.2,
      "interval": null,
      "sourceIds": [
        "eia-henry-hub"
      ],
      "recordRef": null,
      "note": "Annual average."
    },
    {
      "period": "2025",
      "date": "2025-12-31",
      "epistemicClass": "reconstructed",
      "evidenceStatus": "provisional",
      "value": null,
      "interval": {
        "low": 2.8,
        "high": 3.8,
        "intervalMeaning": "plausible-range"
      },
      "sourceIds": [
        "eia-henry-hub"
      ],
      "recordRef": null,
      "note": "Reconstructed 2025 range."
    },
    {
      "period": "Apr 2026",
      "date": "2026-04-30",
      "epistemicClass": "observed",
      "evidenceStatus": "reported",
      "value": 2.77,
      "interval": null,
      "sourceIds": [
        "eia-henry-hub"
      ],
      "recordRef": null,
      "note": "EIA monthly spot."
    },
    {
      "period": "May 2026",
      "date": "2026-05-31",
      "epistemicClass": "observed",
      "evidenceStatus": "reported",
      "value": 2.94,
      "interval": null,
      "sourceIds": [
        "eia-henry-hub"
      ],
      "recordRef": null,
      "note": "EIA monthly spot."
    },
    {
      "period": "Summer 2026",
      "date": "2026-08-31",
      "epistemicClass": "nowcast",
      "evidenceStatus": "provisional",
      "value": null,
      "interval": {
        "low": 2.7,
        "high": 3.6,
        "intervalMeaning": "plausible-range"
      },
      "sourceIds": [
        "eia-henry-hub"
      ],
      "recordRef": {
        "kind": "nowcast",
        "id": "nc-henry-hub-2026-mid"
      },
      "note": "Nowcast of the mid-2026 level."
    },
    {
      "period": "Winter 2026-27 (scenario)",
      "date": "2027-01-31",
      "epistemicClass": "scenario",
      "evidenceStatus": "unverified-lead",
      "value": null,
      "interval": {
        "low": 3.5,
        "high": 5.5,
        "intervalMeaning": "plausible-range"
      },
      "sourceIds": [
        "eia-henry-hub"
      ],
      "recordRef": {
        "kind": "scenario",
        "id": "sc-henry-hub-cold-2026"
      },
      "note": "Conditional path — cold winter / rising LNG pull."
    }
  ],
  "competingSeries": [],
  "sourceTransitions": [],
  "definitionChanges": [],
  "missingPeriods": [],
  "methodologyIds": [
    "anchor-interpolation-v1",
    "proxy-nowcast-v1",
    "conditional-scenario-v1"
  ]
}