{
  "id": "gaza-cumulative-fatalities",
  "title": "Gaza Strip — cumulative reported fatalities",
  "unit": "people killed (cumulative)",
  "domain": "human-cost",
  "metricId": "gaza-cumulative-fatalities",
  "metricName": "Gaza Strip cumulative reported fatalities",
  "subjectType": "conflict",
  "subjectId": "israel-gaza",
  "summaryFinding": "Ministry-of-Health-reported cumulative fatalities in the Gaza Strip, relayed by OCHA and labelled by the UN as 'yet-to-be-verified', rose past widely-reported milestones to at least 58,573 by 16 July 2025. Warconomy interpolates the months between reported milestones and shows the present as range-only, because no verified current cumulative exists. An independent demographically-adjusted estimate (77,000-109,000, ~May 2025) is preserved as a competing figure — not averaged into the MoH count, because the two measure different things.",
  "geographicCoverage": "Gaza Strip",
  "coveredThrough": "2025-07-16",
  "lastReviewed": "2026-07-22",
  "page": "https://warconomy.com/data-series/gaza-cumulative-fatalities",
  "points": [
    {
      "period": "Oct 2023",
      "date": "2023-10-31",
      "epistemicClass": "observed",
      "evidenceStatus": "reported",
      "value": 8500,
      "interval": null,
      "sourceIds": [
        "ochaopt"
      ],
      "recordRef": null,
      "note": "MoH-reported cumulative by end-Oct 2023 (approx.), relayed by OCHA; UN-unverified."
    },
    {
      "period": "Dec 2023",
      "date": "2023-12-31",
      "epistemicClass": "observed",
      "evidenceStatus": "reported",
      "value": 21700,
      "interval": null,
      "sourceIds": [
        "ochaopt"
      ],
      "recordRef": null,
      "note": "MoH-reported cumulative, end-2023 (approx.)."
    },
    {
      "period": "Feb 2024",
      "date": "2024-02-29",
      "epistemicClass": "observed",
      "evidenceStatus": "reported",
      "value": 30000,
      "interval": null,
      "sourceIds": [
        "ochaopt"
      ],
      "recordRef": null,
      "note": "MoH-reported cumulative passed ~30,000 in late Feb 2024."
    },
    {
      "period": "May 2024",
      "date": "2024-05-31",
      "epistemicClass": "reconstructed",
      "evidenceStatus": "provisional",
      "value": null,
      "interval": {
        "low": 35000,
        "high": 37000,
        "intervalMeaning": "plausible-range"
      },
      "sourceIds": [
        "ochaopt"
      ],
      "recordRef": null,
      "note": "Interpolated between reported Feb-2024 and Aug-2024 milestones; not a distinct MoH milestone."
    },
    {
      "period": "Aug 2024",
      "date": "2024-08-31",
      "epistemicClass": "observed",
      "evidenceStatus": "reported",
      "value": 40700,
      "interval": null,
      "sourceIds": [
        "ochaopt"
      ],
      "recordRef": null,
      "note": "MoH-reported cumulative passed ~40,000 in mid-Aug 2024."
    },
    {
      "period": "Dec 2024",
      "date": "2024-12-31",
      "epistemicClass": "observed",
      "evidenceStatus": "reported",
      "value": 45500,
      "interval": null,
      "sourceIds": [
        "ochaopt"
      ],
      "recordRef": null,
      "note": "MoH-reported cumulative, approx. end-2024."
    },
    {
      "period": "Jul 2025",
      "date": "2025-07-16",
      "epistemicClass": "observed",
      "evidenceStatus": "reported",
      "value": 58573,
      "interval": null,
      "sourceIds": [
        "ochaopt"
      ],
      "recordRef": null,
      "note": "OCHA Humanitarian Situation Update #306 — the most recent whole-war cumulative this repo directly confirmed. A documented floor."
    },
    {
      "period": "Present (mid-2026)",
      "date": "2026-07-16",
      "epistemicClass": "reconstructed",
      "evidenceStatus": "disputed",
      "value": null,
      "interval": {
        "low": 59000,
        "high": 75000,
        "intervalMeaning": "plausible-range"
      },
      "sourceIds": [
        "ochaopt"
      ],
      "recordRef": null,
      "note": "Range-only: no verified current cumulative exists. The Jul-2025 figure is a stale floor; OCHA's mid-2026 updates report ceasefire-period casualties over a different, shorter window that cannot simply be added. See the competing adjusted estimate."
    }
  ],
  "competingSeries": [
    {
      "label": "Demographically-adjusted estimate (Washington Institute)",
      "note": "An independent statistical adjustment for possible undercounting in the MoH tally — a different method than MoH's direct identified-casualty count, so shown alongside, never averaged in. As of roughly May 2025.",
      "sourceIds": [
        "washington-institute-gaza-toll-assessment"
      ],
      "points": [
        {
          "period": "~May 2025",
          "date": "2025-05-31",
          "epistemicClass": "reconstructed",
          "evidenceStatus": "disputed",
          "value": null,
          "interval": {
            "low": 77000,
            "high": 109000,
            "intervalMeaning": "plausible-range"
          },
          "sourceIds": [
            "washington-institute-gaza-toll-assessment"
          ],
          "recordRef": null,
          "note": "Adjusted estimate; midpoint ~93,000."
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "sourceTransitions": [],
  "definitionChanges": [],
  "missingPeriods": [
    {
      "start": "2025-07-17",
      "end": "2026-07-16",
      "reason": "definition-incompatible"
    }
  ],
  "methodologyIds": [
    "anchor-interpolation-v1"
  ]
}